Stebo

Thankfully its on its own and realistically it should have been weaker, the trough was faster and flatter but somehow still wrapped up.

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

I am not your sweet summer child and I dunno what 10 hours you are referring to lol. While detroit always seems to get in on pingers, I don't recall having 10 hours of it. I remember ghd 11 was a few hours.

It could be when he has lived down south

26 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm at 7.3 inches.  Heavy bands are expanding over me, so we have a real shot at 10 inches.  It's a beautiful snow, too.  Wet, but fluffy.

Good to see you cash in

8 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Emotions will be running high because of the amped up solutions, as stebo alluded too, lots of moving parts, that are just now coming into focus. Obviously everyone wants the historic blizzard, BUT a spread the wealth that drops 6-9” with 30-35mph winds is still awesome to me. 

Yep we all deserve a nice hit.

15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

wasn’t a forecast, just a thought.

you’ve gotten pretty bad these days. might be time for a post 2016 election hiatus for ya.

sounds like he is past his prime, like the Euro.

2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

So the question is, why does the guidance (across multiple models and multiple ensemble members) keep showing them until relatively close in time?

Still a ton of moving parts one would expect the Euro to come down some this upcoming run though.

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Isnt that better for SE MI? Im routing for a slightly weaker more SE trend. A stronger storm is just a redo of this current one 

It is better for here than the Euro.

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

as nice as it would be to get the dog some guidance has shown, odds are this one will favor southeast of here, due to the evolution of things.

sort of a late developer for here than you’d normally see.


.

Yep, like I mentioned earlier, it will still be a good storm and most will get a good hit but these sub 970mb lows are a pipe dream, just like they were for the current system.

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Hoping it won't end up more suppressed like the 06z gfs run and miss a lot of the nw subforum. Need a nice spread the wealth storm for us. 

I would like that too, everyone wins everyone is happy. Today is pretty much everyone loses no one is happy.

2 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Been wondering this the whole time tbh. As much fun as it's been to watch, the climatology part of my brain has been rattling with the fact that it's just so unusual to see such an amplified system in that part of the region. Not saying it couldn't happen, but given the current background state (system today + disturbance Thursday + eastern ridging possibly playing a hand too) and past history, does it make sense?

Yeah I am not saying it can't happen either but looking at how the models handled the current system one would have to think the Euro is overcooked.

Definitely don't like the Euro overamplified look, but I will say it was overamplified with the current system at this junction too. The GFS is probably a more reasonable solution just because the rarity of getting a low as strong as the Euro that far south and the GFS did pretty well with the current system where as a lot of other models had the low further north.

Complete dud here, rain mostly with a few flakes mixing in.

At this point I would be riding the obs.

25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

this was earlier today, with over 60mph winds creating severe blizzard conditions in some areas of Kansas

 

DDC gusted to 54 GCK 67 Guymon OK, 74 and Raton NM 90.

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea and while those impacted detroit, areas to the west got a whole alot more snow. Im just at the point where I wanna be in the jackpot zone and I know that's hard to have happen. Panhandle hooks, the significant ones, aren't the best for us. Ghd 2011...

All 3 of those were still great systems here, no need for greed when we have had nothing so far.

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.

A panhandle hook is one of the classic snowstorm tracks for us. GHD blizzard 78 and 99 all were panhandle hooks.

14 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

When was the last major one? Usually, not always these tend to go west

I mean we have had several plus this low is going to be near Memphis before moving north.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

too early even for me to attempt to final call but i'm more worried about rain than a miss south/east

Not with the blocking in place and the potential of occlusion pulling away the warm air.

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

To me it's starting to look like a classic Panhandle Hook, especially with that track. I can't think off the top of my head very many times we've cashed in on these systems, Chicago can though

We have a bunch of times lmao.

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

The classic butterfly effect. 

I also think that the Euro had a couple big wins way back that then pumped its rep. We seem to remember the wins on the big storms and forget the misses, so it was easy to hold it to its "king" moniker. Now that the competition has caught up, its deficiencies become glaring. 

Will be real interesting to see which model handles the upcoming storm the best.

I think that back in the day it was much better and people remember the wins, but it never really got much better since then while the GFS has actually gotten much better over time.

Front end thump may not last long here but it should come down hard when it hits tomorrow morning and impact the morning drive in. Solid 3-4 should come with that initial hit and then some backside snow on Tuesday night.

Honestly we don't know the track yet, a few models have this coming straight north too. I would probably discount those models as its just very rare to get a track like that. Also you can get a situation like the Canadian where you get an attempt at a transfer which could pull the warm air away from the region as well. A lot of moving parts to this one including the small system in between that could lower heights as well ahead of this system.

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Another bummer track for dtw. Looking like a road trip to cmu to visit cousin at school..

Lol, you are such a deflated balloon, I swear.

8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think it's a relative thing. The Euro is still the best model but the other models are better than they were due to computing power. Back when these forums got popular, the Euro was much better across the board, so even if it had similar or more fails, the other models had fewer successes.

Another aspect I think of with modeling is the minor drawback of much higher resolution. In complex patterns with multiple moving parts, the error introduced by a higher resolution depictions can multiply in a way that may result in somewhat less stability run to run, such as what we were used to seeing with the Euro.

Since the ensemble members themselves are higher resolution, they may be affected as well. I'm speculating, but perhaps this is an issue with the guidance being phase happy, or with handling convection at times?

 

Yep, this is exactly what I was talking about. The lack of smoothing because everything is ultra concise, you can sometimes amplify errors.

20 minutes ago, andyhb said:

…Euro is instead super dry, a bit too “slider-esque” still and too broad with the main shortwave.

Euro is just some big time garbage at this point. If this was a new model that came out right now it would be given the ICON treatment and not get used.