Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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It didn't take that long either, but by the time these planes got ready to leave the runways were too fucked. It didn't take 1.5-2 hours at all. We rapidly deteriorated from 4-5PM the planes before that got out just fine.
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You are still wrong, I literally can see the deicing pad out my window, they had several de-icers out there on the planes. They couldn't take off due to runway conditions and only runway conditions.
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Orrrrrrrrrrrrr the runways couldn't be cleared enough to have a safe standard to fly. It absolutely has nothing to do with deicing. I know because I am in the same office as the ramp controllers for the Evans Terminal, and you are a kook at home who doesn't know what he is talking about.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Stebo replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Both are over the hill and way past their relevance. At least in LC's case he isn't chasing a bag too, which is also why he will be right or closer to right. I am looking more after Mar 21st we switch back to a warmer pattern and potentially bumpy with severe weather. -
Roads look like a joy
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No, its still a good storm and most people will get 6-12"
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Pretty solid storm, sucked that we had about an hour of mixing and lousy rates around it. Otherwise it has been good and the back side after the rain has been going to pound town. I also had thundersnow here at the airport and my friend got video of it up in Novi, solid positive strike
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Yes, it will be coming down so hard that rain will struggle to mix in until it's later on at the end and it would be more so drizzle. You being right on the river has the greatest chance of seeing mix but I don't think it will be that much
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You toss that, it isn't going to sleet. Not with these temp profiles. It will either be rain or snow or both.
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Euro didn't go nw though it's just lower ratio on the south fringe of the band. The low was the same. The ukmet was so far south it wasn't surprising to move.
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Indoor chickens it is.
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I really don't know what you are seeing on this. Why do you think 6 to 10 is bad?
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I expect DTX to go warning for their entire watch except Monroe.
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It's not rain tho, this is literally how far north the rain snow line gets It shows lighter returns, my guess is it's struggling where the banding will set up. But it isnt rain.
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It isn't a rainer for dtw and definitely not dtx. It will be a lot lower ratio but the temps don't go above 34. Yes I would love no last second shift but this storm has done nothing but shift.
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RAP is about as useless of a model as you can get at this point. The ice storm it had us in the 50s as close as 18 hours out. Grossly overaggressive on WAA.
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You are underestimating the power of the FGEN bands and if they persist over an area I absolutely could see someone get and exceed 12. There is a reason that one of the more notoriously drier models, the HRRR, is going absolutely bananas.
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Hi I would like to lock in the Euro and HRRR. I would die if that happened. At this point I have significant confidence that the NAMs are the toss here with everything else is pretty much nailing SEMI. Only areas I am worried about are downriver and Monroe that they could mix a bit. But Josh lives downriver and we know the snow gods wouldn't let that happen, so expect a small nudge SE .
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Same with the 3km NAM.
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12km NAM definitely shifted SE with the low track and snowfall.
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Only thing i see with that is a loss on the far north end and maybe a hair flatter.
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The problem too is the band isn't exactly wide so noise level changes are making a huge issue. Like what do you do with DTX's CWA.
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Its like the 3km Nam, flatter, which helps both of us.
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There is one short range model that I watch because its been very good, the RDPS(RGEM).
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So far there haven't been any changes of the 00z models out there, the problem is they were still split.
