Stebo

DDC gusted to 54 GCK 67 Guymon OK, 74 and Raton NM 90.

All 3 of those were still great systems here, no need for greed when we have had nothing so far.

A panhandle hook is one of the classic snowstorm tracks for us. GHD blizzard 78 and 99 all were panhandle hooks.

I mean we have had several plus this low is going to be near Memphis before moving north.

Not with the blocking in place and the potential of occlusion pulling away the warm air.

We have a bunch of times lmao.

I think that back in the day it was much better and people remember the wins, but it never really got much better since then while the GFS has actually gotten much better over time.

Front end thump may not last long here but it should come down hard when it hits tomorrow morning and impact the morning drive in. Solid 3-4 should come with that initial hit and then some backside snow on Tuesday night.

Honestly we don't know the track yet, a few models have this coming straight north too. I would probably discount those models as its just very rare to get a track like that. Also you can get a situation like the Canadian where you get an attempt at a transfer which could pull the warm air away from the region as well. A lot of moving parts to this one including the small system in between that could lower heights as well ahead of this system.

Lol, you are such a deflated balloon, I swear.

Yep, this is exactly what I was talking about. The lack of smoothing because everything is ultra concise, you can sometimes amplify errors.

Euro is just some big time garbage at this point. If this was a new model that came out right now it would be given the ICON treatment and not get used.

This is sad really.

I hope they like near 0 temps

It is a possibility as well but I think this is the basement, it completely flattens the pattern because of amplifying a trailing wave between this storm and the wednesday storm.

Kind of but the difference is this vort is more pacific originating and dives further south, its a loose analog though with the shape of the setup.

Not saying it will happen but the pattern does have great potential There are quite a bit of similarities to another monster

It will keep changing so I am not going to take a bow by any stretch here, it could easily suppress further south or go back north.

Exactly

zzzzz

Ahh yes the unknown poster who is so casual with everyone, I'd watch out before a house falls on you too

Nothing but clouds here, everything eroded as it moved east.

Its great to not have an interrupting asshole in a bunch of threads.

The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way.

I will add my power of Feb 7th birthday, lets get everyone a birthday gift of snow