coastalplainsnowman

Hi all, apologies for stretching the definition of what goes in an obs thread here, but just wondering if any of the LI folks know have been on any of the big roads from Nassau westward. Have to head upstate early tomorrow. I figure getting off LI will be the toughest part. Any quick insights would be really appreciated. Thanks.

Yeah he's a well known weather enthusiast. (Edit: and from NJ.) It would not shock me if he's on this board. Mike c'mon say hello!

Coming down kinda light right now - seems like I'm in between heavier stuff to either side of me at the moment. Somewhere between 10-12 based on random ruler measurements, but who knows really. Noticed again with this storm, that KFRG (Farmingdale) often does not report snow when it is snowing. See the example link below. Is that automated or it is a person reporting? On this note, basic question, if someone wouldn't mind answering - how is it determined whether snowfall is light, medium, or heavy? https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFRG.html

Most probably have this - traffic camera at the circle in Montauk. I love the contrast between the stock photo when the site first loads and current conditions. Picturing myself strolling around there on vacation on a beautiful summer morning, then comparing to what it looks like there now. https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/montauk-downtowncircle.html

That would be nice. The snow is accumulating sort of quietly here so far. Looking out the window throughout this event the rates have never looked great, yet here we are with I guess 10-12 so far?

"any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." I think because we're all so close to this stuff that we take it for granted, but the fact that we have models that days and days out called for that development to start right there roughly around this time will always be impressive to me. When we talk about these models being in 'disagreement', in the big picture they are actually in pretty good agreement - they all called for a snowstorm, they're just apart by what, a few hundred miles on a planet with 200 million square miles of surface area? (had to look it up.) Been great following this one and learning. See y'all in the obs thread..

Regarding last minute shifts, I always think about Feb '83 and Feb '89, and how each ultimately played out. - Feb '83 leaving for school that morning the forecast was mostly out to sea, maybe 2-5 . By 3PM with 6" down, NWS (remember the awesome TWC red scroll and even more awesome red background screen?) was still saying only 8-10. Ended up with 16 by me. - Feb '89 leaving for school we were expecting to be crushed. Ended up with not a flake, w/Montauk & AC getting crushed. If this board existed back then, would I have known the real score heading out the door that morning, i.e. was it already really apparent in the morning and TV/radio hadn't caught up yet? How does that compare to today?

we are all weenies now.

Are you hungry maybe?

On the naming I totally agree. I don't care that much, but am surprised that this group is accepting of it. Seems like the sort of overly commercial thing that would get pulverized here. On the other hand it's a sign of the greatly increased frequency of snowstorms over the last 20 years. Growing up I would have had Aaron ('83.) That's it.

Here's what I've learned this on this forum about this, but if I'm messing up this answer someone let me know. It's the apparently sandy soil at that location which makes for great radiational cooling. It's probably calm there currently. With a little breeze the disparity would largely disappear. The thing that's always still interesting to me regardless is when there are times in the past where they'll have a temp like this ahead of a cutter, and soon as things start going, their temp is instantly, like immediately, in line with their neighbors.

Question for the experts - I'm trying to square what I see on the Upton site, which as of 3:20 PM has all of LI with about a 25% chance of 18+ inches and an expected snowfall of a foot for the Nassau/Suffolk border, with, at least what I'm perceiving, as a 'show's [basically] over, oh well' vibe here. I realize that the pros on here won't necessarily agree Upton all the time, but surprised that there's this much disparity. Why is that? Is in part because most posters here are more north & west, where it is a different story even on Upton's maps?

They're not kidding! I noticed a big disparity this morning but nothing like what's shown now. 10% for Nassau/Suffolk border is literally zero. 90% is 21 inches. Have never seen anything remotely close to this in the few years they've been publishing these maps.

Regarding these football analogies, an important part is getting left out. Are the models the Chiefs? Or are the models the Jets.

If memory serves re March 2001, I remember something along the lines of there being consensus maybe like 6 days out, then at about 4-5 days out that solution disappeared, and was replaced with consensus for a substantially different solution, which generally every model / everyone ran with right up until 18 or so hours out when it was apparent it would bust, only for places out east to end up with 15+ anyway. Am I remembering that right?

As long as we don't get lost in emotion. (..wonders will anyone will get the reference, and embarrassed that he thought of it)

I plan to watch from that video cam by the traffic circle.

Hey what do you mean by nut(tier)? I resent that you included parentheses.

24-48 inches on Long Island with 70-90 mph gusts. Too conservative?

This is awesome. Literally the whole post, but especially "Tracking is fun and interesting." sounds like a mantra from a self help audio tape for those with snow-related disorders.

"Taxpayers storm." You $#*%(*s even have a name for it lol. Up to this point I didn't care how much I got, but now that I realize that I'm literally paying for it I want my money's worth god@$# it!

Remember what 2-3 feet sounded like then compared to what 2-3 feet sounds like today. Of course 2-3 feet still sounds awesome, but back then it sounded like eleventy feet.

I have family up in Sussex. The difference in the winter weather between there and where I am on LI is like night and day, which we all know. In the 80s as a kid, I experienced one or two gut punches per season as they got socked up there with snow while we got rain. We got a little revenge with some of grazers of the last decade, but the score is about 100-2 in your favor. I've got no frozen lakes, and no snowcover - just a few measly parking lot snowpiles, and that's about it. Ah, it all pays off in early to mid April, though, when you'll occasionally get up to 72 under bright blue skies, while I'm backdoored with 49, low clouds, fog and drizzle.

How's this for shallow? Sadly I don't always necessarily look at the thread. I just look at how long its been since the last post. The following guide has been very reliable over the years: Last Post Current Snow Prognosis Just now Very very positive trending toward greater than previously expected plowable snow 1-2 minutes Status quo favorable toward plowable snow 3 minutes Some hints at trouble, either for change to rain or out to sea, still a good shot at plowable snow 4 minutes Negative trends - rain or out to sea looking more likely 5-15 minutes Negative trends reinforced - expectation is now for minimal snow or snow and quick changeover - but still some hope 15 minutes+ All hope is lost. Some new posts, but they're talking about next week's possibilities.

Does anyone else find that in storms like these that the winds infrequently -- not always, but infrequently -- come close to materializing, or at least are so localized that it seems that way for most? I'm talking about Long Island in particular. Anecdotal, I know, but feels like I've had maybe a storm every two years here where 60mph plus gusts are expected, and it turns out to be not just not very windy, but downright calm, and I'm thinking 'what the heck?'