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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    In the wake of the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures could surge into the 50s. Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +2.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.671 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.023 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.355 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.4° (0.7° above normal).
  2. donsutherland1
    Photos from the recent storm. First is from Near Harriman, NY. The second and third are from Middletown, NY.
  3. donsutherland1
    The rain switched to sleet and then snow in Larchmont. Even as it’s only a coating, it is infinitely better than nothing at all.
  4. donsutherland1
    It switched to snow here and the ground is coated.
  5. donsutherland1
    It’s now snowing in Larchmont. The ground is coated.
  6. donsutherland1
    Fortunately, there should be more opportunities in coming weeks.
  7. donsutherland1
    I’m too close to the Long Island Sound in this marginal air mass.
  8. donsutherland1
    Larchmont had been all rain since starting as a mix. Sleet is now mixing in.
  9. donsutherland1
    Following up on the discussion concerning 10:1 snow maps, through 7 pm EST, New York City had received 0.14” precipitation, of which 0.2” was snow. The low temperature during the snowfall was 34. The snow-to-liquid ratio was 1.4:1.
  10. donsutherland1
  11. donsutherland1
    With just 0.2" of snow at Central Park, the temperature very likely to hold several degrees above freezing, and warmer air aloft continuing to advance, the record-setting streak without 1" or more daily snowfall will reach 692 days today.
  12. donsutherland1
    At 5 pm, light snow was falling in Central Park and Newark. Rain was falling in Philadelphia, Trenton, and Belmar. As of 4 pm, Central Park had recorded a trace of snow while Newark had picked up 0.1". Snow and/or mixed precipitation will become all rain along the coast. The precipitation will end on Sunday possibly as light snow or snow showers. The storm will bring a coating of snow to Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island, up to a slushy inch to Central Park, and up to 2" in the Bronx. 3"-6" of snow will fall well north and west of New York City. Following the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion is also likely. Temperatures could surge into the 50s. Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was -7.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.292 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.355 (RMM). The January 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.302(RMM).
  13. donsutherland1
    Light rain/snow mix now being reported on Newark's observations.
  14. donsutherland1
    1/6-7/2024 Storm: The first snowflakes have reached the general Newark and Clifton areas. Some flurries should be spreading north and eastward across the Hudson River in the next hour or so. Belmar, NJ is reporting light rain. Wilmington, DE has switched to light rain. The colder ECMWF appears not to be verifying there, as little or no accumulation has occurred prior to the precipitation transition. Allentown is receiving light snow, but the observation shows "sky obscured." 1/9-10/2024 Storm: The model guidance remains very impressive with a general 2"-3" of precipitation with locally higher amounts, mild temperatures, and strong winds. River and coastal flooding, along with significant beach erosion, are likely from what should be a high-impact storm.
  15. donsutherland1
    Aside from the maps having 10:1 ratios (more likely to be 5:1 in and around the NYC Metro Area), it is falling short in upstream areas where precipitation has been falling. For example, Sterling (IAD) has gone over to light rain after little or no accumulation. Later data from Wilmington, DE and Philadelphia will provide greater insight as to how things are working e.g., the snowfall amounts on the southern and eastern fringes of the measurable snowfall might be too high.
  16. donsutherland1
    As per mPing, light snow has reached Allentown and Easton.
  17. donsutherland1
    It's amazing how detailed they have become. It will be interesting to see the gradient from little snowfall to moderate or greater snowfall.
  18. donsutherland1
    Latest HREF: The 1" line appears to be near the border of Manhattan and the Bronx, but north of Central Park:
  19. donsutherland1
    As per the 5-minute observations, PHL started seeing light snow at 11:11 am. Visibility was 10 miles, so it’s probably flurries.
  20. donsutherland1
    1/6-7/2024 Storm: Light snow has reached Philadelphia. Wilmington, DE is also seeing light snow.
  21. donsutherland1
    Latest Winter Storm Severity Index:
  22. donsutherland1
    Latest EPS and NBE numbers: As the EPS is based on 10:1 ratios, those figures should probably be cut in half given the low ratio snow that is likely due to above freezing temperatures. For example, the high probability of 1" or more snowfall should be read as showing a high probability of measurable snowfall. Wet snow should fall for a time in NYC, but the opportunity for accumulation will likely be limited to periods where it falls moderately. My guess is that a slushy inch remains likely in Central Park.
  23. donsutherland1
    EPS and NBE information. Note: EPS data is based on 10:1 ratios. Actual ratios will be much lower given the above freezing temperatures during the storm. My guess is that Central Park will likely see a slushy inch of snow while lower Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island see a coating. There is still room for minor changes. I remain concerned about the combination of warm soundings and above freezing temperatures.
  24. donsutherland1
    The period of quiet weather is coming to an end. The region will be impacted by a series of storms over the next seven days. Tomorrow will be increasingly cloudy and cold. Snow and/or mixed precipitation will overspread the region during the afternoon into the evening. Precipitation will quickly become all rain along the coast. Precipitation will end on Sunday possibly as light snow or snow showers. The storm will likely bring a coating to Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island, a slushy inch to Central Park, and up to 2" in the Bronx. 3"-6" of snow will fall well north and west of New York City. Following the region's first winter storm, a severe storm could bring a heavy windswept rain to much of the region during the middle of next week. The potential exists for a 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, damaging winds, and possibly significant coastal flooding. Temperatures could surge toward or into the 50s. Late next week, a genuine Arctic air mass will likely begin pushing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could try to come eastward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.00°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was -6.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.595 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.301 (RMM). The January 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.276(RMM).
  25. donsutherland1
    For reference:
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