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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    AMOC breakdown risk: This isn't necessary the most likely scenario, but an illustration of an uncomfortably high short-term probability. The underlying paper can be found here: https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/nyas.14659
  2. donsutherland1
    Thank you.
  3. donsutherland1
    I now post screenshots.
  4. donsutherland1
    Speaking of flamingos, one has reached Cape Cod.
  5. donsutherland1
    Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose to 84° at Islip, 86° in New York City, 89° at Newark, and 87° at Philadelphia. The Islip reading missed the daily record by 2°. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Rain will likely arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. In the wake of the system, temperatures will reach the upper 70s into the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -17.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.157 today.
  6. donsutherland1
    After perhaps a brief shower, tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could again reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. In the wake of the system, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was -10.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.403 today.
  7. donsutherland1
    Temperatures rose into the lower 80s in Ghent, NY making for a good day for viewing some of the sculptures at Art Omi.
  8. donsutherland1
    Thank you for posting this information. The rankings make clear that Heller's chart is inaccurate. I went to the tool and exported the data. Just 0.3% of the stations were 4th lowest in terms of the number of 80F days through May 31. There is no plausible way 2024 ranked fourth lowest.
  9. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could again reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +4.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.635 today.
  10. donsutherland1
    I didn't mean that the data in the chart is not meaningful. However, there are better ways to judge overall temperatures for subseasonal and seasonal periods. For example, using only metrics such as used by Heller, there could be a July where the temperature spikes to let's say 100° in Philadelphia, but the month overall could wind up cooler than normal. Heller's type of analysis would flag it as "hot" if he is scoring things based on 100° days. Meanwhile, there could be another July where the monthly anomaly is +2.5°, but the highest maximum temperature is 97°. If Heller is using 100° days, his analysis would flag the month as "cool." Period average highs, lows, and means do a better job in assessing the outcome for the period in question.
  11. donsutherland1
    More than likely, the ongoing marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are contributing to the excessive warmth seen in Florida, Cuba, Puerto Rico, etc. The dry conditions are likely amplifying the heat in northeast Mexico and southwest Texas. It is plausible that a global threshold has been passed. I suspect the outcomes during and after the developing La Niña will provide greater insight.
  12. donsutherland1
    Brownsville experienced its warmest May on record. Brownsville's May was also warmer than any June on record. Some records from Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas: Del Rio demolished its May and Spring records. It also had its first May extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) on record. Some highlights from Del Rio:
  13. donsutherland1
    Numerous U.S. cities had their warmest #May on record, some by tremendous margins. In a number, May 2024 would have ranked among the 10 warmest Junes on record. In Brownsville and Fort Lauderdale, the May temperature exceeded both the May and June records.
  14. donsutherland1
    May calendar day summary for New York City:
  15. donsutherland1
    Far more meaningful for evaluating temperatures than Tony Heller's chart are the mean temperatures, mean low temperatures, and mean high temperatures. There is virtually no chance that 2024 will rank as the 4th coldest January-May on record when all the data is considered. Once the NOAA compiles the May data, the January-May 2024 period will likely rank as among the 10 warmest in terms of mean temperatures and mean low temperatures and among the 25 warmest in terms of mean high temperatures for the contiguous United States
  16. donsutherland1
    May finished with a mean temperature of 65.1° (1.9° above normal) in New York City. A warm and generally dry weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s lies ahead. Afterward, the first half of next week will be dry with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +9.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.350 today. On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.457 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.609 (RMM).
  17. donsutherland1
    Numerous cities in Texas and Florida are en route to their warmest May on record. The May temperatures will likely exceed the warmest June temperatures on record in both Brownsville and Fort Lauderdale. In fact, May 2024 will be so warm in Fort Lauderdale that May 2024 will likely rank as the third warmest July there.
  18. donsutherland1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.5 101 100 98 96 97 104 101 118 97
  19. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will start off with cool readings in the upper 50s in New York City and lower to middle 50s outside the City. The temperature will then recover to the middle and upper 70s. A wawrm weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s lies ahead. Afterward, most of next week will be dry with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could reach the middle 80s. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +15.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.169 yesterday. On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.457 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.609 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).
  20. donsutherland1
    Showers and possible thundershowers are possible tonight into the early morning. Afterward, tomorrow and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +15.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.147 today. On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.609 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.2° (2.0° above normal).
  21. donsutherland1
    Two photos of this morning's fog:
  22. donsutherland1
    I'm not sure. The climate baseline changes, so there may be differences depending which baseline is utilized.
  23. donsutherland1
    Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Afterward, Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +11.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.411 today. On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.691 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.584 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).
  24. donsutherland1
    Probably not until at least late fall. But that’s not guaranteed.
  25. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. The temperature will rise into the lower 80s. A few warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Cooler air will begin to arrive on Wednesday with the temperature reaching the upper 70s. Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was +9.44 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.381 today. On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).
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