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Everything posted by donsutherland1
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Near normal readings will prevail through the week. Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight through Thursday. Warmer air will begin to arrive to close the weekend. There is some potential that the month could end on a hot note. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.170 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0° (2.5° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1908 and 2020 as the 8th hottest July on record.
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Near normal readings will prevail through the week. Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight through Thursday. There is some potential that the month could end on a hot note. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +5.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.325 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.
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Generally fair and near normal readings will prevail through the week. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward midweek. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -5.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.152 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.
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Generally fair and somewhat warmer than normal readings will prevail into next week. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward the middle of next week. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -22.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.013 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.2° (2.7° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 2011 as the 6th hottest July on record.
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Phoenix Experiences its Hottest June on Record
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Probably, around half given trends at some rural sites. Unfortunately, there are no nearby USCRN sites. Growing urbanization has played an important role in driving the warming in Las Vegas and Reno, on top of background warming from climate change. -
Phoenix Experiences its Hottest June on Record
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Yes. Phoenix has broken records for its hottest summer in 1981, 2007, 2013, 2020, and 2023. 2024 is on track to set a new record. A similar story holds true for Las Vegas, with summer records being set in 1994, 2007, 2016, 2017, and 2018. 2024 is also on track to become its hottest summer on record. We'll have to see if monsoonal moisture in August tempers the warmth enough to avoid setting new records. Even if it does, both cities will probably set new records before the decade is over. -
Phoenix Experiences its Hottest June on Record
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
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Phoenix Experiences its Hottest June on Record
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
On account of its warming climate, what was once a record-breaking summer prior to 2000 has become a routine summer today. The trendline for mean summer temperatures now exceeds the figure for the hottest summer on record prior to 2000. -
Under bright sunshine and low humidity, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 80s in the Middle Atlantic Region. Meanwhile, out west, Seattle recorded its 16th consecutive 80° day. That broke the record of 15 days set during July 30-August 13, 1977 and tied during June 25-July 9, 2015. Generally fair and somewhat warmer than normal readings will prevail through the weekend. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward the middle of next week. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -30.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.241 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.2° (2.7° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 2011 as the 6th hottest July on record.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
The Dust Bowl Era of the 1930s illustrates the kind of extremes that can take place in an aridification scenario. Conditions for exceptional heat resulted from the combination of persistent drought and low soil moisture from bad farming practices/soil management. That 1930s extremes are beginning to be challenged in the Plains States in the absence of such conditions illustrates the reality that a warming climate is bringing temperatures toward levels that once occurred under extraordinary conditions. In terms of larger regions and the contiguous U.S., recent summers have generally exceeded those of the 1930s. In fact, 3 of the 10 hottest summers have all occurred since 2020 on a national basis. In addition, 1930s figures have been surpassed in all but two climate regions. -
Generally fair and somewhat warmer than normal readings will prevail through the weekend. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward the middle of next week. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -31.27 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.244 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.2° (2.7° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 2011 as the 6th hottest July on record.
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A line of thunderstorms dumped 1.13” of rain in New York City during the past hour. Since 1889, 30% of 1” or more hourly rainfall amounts have occurred in July.
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Temperatures soared into the 90s across many parts of the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 100° New York City: 90° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 101° Baltimore and Washington, DC both recorded their record-tying fourth consecutive 100° or above days. Somewhat cooler air will arrive overnight and tomorrow following showers and thunderstorms. Nevertheless, temperatures will generally run somewhat above normal through the remainder of the week and weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -25.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.279 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.2° (2.7° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 2011 as the 6th hottest July on record.
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Temperatures soared well into the 90s across many parts of the Middle Atlantic region today. A southeasterly wind helped cap temperatures in New York City during the afternoon. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 104° (tied record set in 1988) Bridgeport: 92° Islip: 93° New York City: 94° Newark: 99° Philadelphia: 98° Washington, DC: 104° (tied record set in 1988) Tomorrow will again see hot and humid conditions. Widespread 90s likely. An approaching cold front will likely bring heavy thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon or evening. Cooler air will arrive afterward. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -10.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.019 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.
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Temperatures soared well into the 90s across many parts of the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 95° Baltimore: 102° (tied record set in 1995) Harrisburg: 99° (tied record set in 1995) New York City: 91° Newark: 94° Norfolk: 98° Philadelphia: 97° Raleigh: 101° (old record: 99°, 1979 and 1999) Richmond: 97° Washington, DC: 102° (old record: 100°, 1988) Wilmington, DE: 96° Tomorrow and Wednesday will see very hot and humid conditions. Widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are likely. An approaching cold front could bring heavy thunderstorms to the region during on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Cooler air will arrive afterward. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +1.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.188 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.
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Heat returned to the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 101° (tied record set in 1954) New York City: 90° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 94° Washington, DC: 101° (old record: 100°, 1954) Tomorrow through Wednesday will see very hot and humid conditions. Widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are likely. An approaching cold front could bring heavy thunderstorms to the region during on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Cooler air will arrive afterward. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -4.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.248 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.
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Following the heavy rain that started the day, the clouds broke and it turned noticeably warmer in the afternoon. It will turn even hotter tomorrow. Early next week will likely be very hot and humid. Widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are likely Monday through Wednesday. Cooler air will arrive late in the week. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continued to recede. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -2.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.261 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.
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As of 9:10 am, New Haven has picked up 1.27” of rain. That breaks its daily record of 1.03” from 1975. New York City has seen 1.89”. Parts of the Mount Holly forecast area have seen 7” since yesterday.
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Rain and thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A general storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely by the time the rain ends tomorrow afternoon. Through 8 pm, Georgetown, DE has picked up 3.76" of rain. That broke that city's daily mark of 3.41" from 2013. Heat will begin to return during on Sunday. Early next week will likely be very hot and humid. The heat will likely crest during Monday through Wednesday. During that time, widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are possible. Cooler air will arrive late in the week. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Las Vegas recorded its record 7th consecutive 115° day. Boise saw the temperature reach 105° for a record-tying fourth consecutive day. The intense heat will finally recede over the next few days. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -22.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.
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Some showers or thundershowers are possible tomorrow into Saturday. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is possible. It will turn slightly cooler before heat begins to return during the weekend. The beginning of next week could be hot and humid. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Las Vegas topped out at 118°, its third highest figure on record. Las Vegas also reached 115° or above for a record sixth consecutive day. Milford, UT reached an all-time record 108°. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -31.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.069 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.
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Some showers or thundershowers are possible tomorrow. It will turn slightly cooler before heat begins to return during the weekend. The beginning of next week could be hot and humid. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Las Vegas topped out at 118°, its third highest figure on record. Las Vegas also reached 115° or above for a record fifth consecutive day. Needles reached 122°. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -15.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.321 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal).
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Very warm and humid weather will prevail through tomorrow. Some showers or thundershowers are possible. The latter part of the week could turn slightly cooler. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Daggett reached 118°, tying its all-time mark for the third consecutive day. Las Vegas topped out at 119°, its second highest figure on record. Needles reached 122°. Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.084 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8° (2.3° above normal).
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Hot weather prevailed yet again today. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 98° New York City: 95° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 98° The very warm and humid weather will prevail inro the middle of the week with temperatures generally running several degrees above normal. Some showers or thundershowers are possible. The latter part of the week could turn slightly cooler. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Daggett, CA tied its all-time record of 118° for a second consecutive day. Redding recorded its record 4th consecutive 115° day. Blythe (120°), Death Valley (126°), Needles (123°), and Palm Springs (122°) all reached or exceeded 120°. Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.250 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).
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The temperature again rose into the 90s in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 97° New York City: 93° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 97° The very warm and humid weather will prevail inro the middle of the week with temperatures generally running several degrees above normal. The latter part of the week could turn slightly cooler. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Redding, CA tied its record of three consecutive 115° or above days following yesterday's all-time high of 119°. Las Vegas decimated its all-time record of 117° with a high of 120°. Daggett, CA tied its all-time mark of 118°. Twentynine Palms also tied its all-time mark of 118°. Death Valley topped out at 129°. Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.429 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).