donsutherland1

Yes. I fixed my post as I accidentally omitted 1983 and 2010.

Perhaps. Let's say the temperature rises 1.5C to 2.0C from the 1991-2020 average. That would mean, 87°-89° days during 1991-2020 would then be 90° days, on average. That would increase the average annual number of 90° days as follows: JFK: From 10.8 to 22.8; LGA: From 21.8 to 37.9; NYC: From 17.4 to 32.9; Newark: From 28.3 to 46.8. Extremes increase in non-linear fashion, so that actual incidence would probably increase somewhat faster than overall temperatures. So, it seems plausible, but that's far out.

JFK Airport 1949: 2 days 1993: 2 days Most in any year: 3 days in 1966, 1983 and 2010 Central Park 1949: 5 days (highest on record) 1993: 3 days Most in any year: 5 days in 1949

Even as it is inland relative to NYC, Newark is still on the coastal plain. SSTs are affecting ridge development and placement. The rising moisture may have slowed the rise in high temperatures, but as the climate warms further, the 1949 and 1993 records for 100° days at Newark will likely be broken (perhaps in the next 15 years?). That the climate in the Northeast has grown wetter also has an impact. Both summers were among the driest on record for Newark. The climate models don't do as well on a regional or local basis.

Yes. It can happen, especially with an offshore flow. July 23, 1972 is a great example: JFK: 100; Central Park: 94.

NOAA has noted the obstruction of the trees.

The importance of an offshore wind at JFK cannot be overstated. The ultimate June example: June 27, 1966 highs: Central Park: 101; JFK Airport: 82.

Expanded lists of June record high maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the New York City area are below:

While New York City waits for the onset of potentially extreme heat, New York City tied the June monthly record for smallest daily temperature range on June 9. The temperature range was just 2° (high: 64°; low: 62°). That tied the June record that was set on June 8, 1869 and tied on June 11, 1910, June 8, 1916, June 20, 1958, and June 17, 1978. June 17, 1978 also had an identical 64°-62° daily range.

July 1, 1963 (102).

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Temperatures will top out in the middle 80s tomorrow. Afterward, the heat will come roaring back on Sunday with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region. Excessive heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ECMWF continues to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -6.89 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.245 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

For those who are interested in checking out New York City area records, I created a GPT that can be queried using ChatGPT. That GPT an be found at here.

The operational ECMWF and GFS are now in good agreement that daily record temperatures will likely be challenged or broken during June 23-24 across the New York City region. June monthly records could be challenged, as well. EFI for June 23: EFI for June 24: Select Data:

A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Although temperatures will be somewhat cooler than they were today tomorrow and Saturday, the heat will likely come roaring back on Sunday. Excessive heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ECMWF is showing potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -13.36 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.764 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal).

Approaching thunderstorm a short time ago. It was rapidly falling apart.

Unfortunately, I don't have such details and I am not aware of their being published. Given where things currently stand, I think its solution is probably somewhat more likely than that on the operational AI. Nevertheless, even at this timeframe, it is subject to errors, so one can't fully rule out more widespread heat.

I don't have much expectation that partial privatization or private partnerships would address the structural modeling issue. A model that would be publicly available wouldn't produce high profit margins. Only sustainable competitive advantages requiring exclusivity or near exclusivity in solutions, would command such profit margins. Thus, investments wouldn't be devoted to models per se.

Part of the issue lies in the initialization scheme. The top models (ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET) all use the 4dVar initialization. Some have used it for more than a decade. Despite its demonstrated benefits, it was never integrated in any of the GFS upgrades perhaps because the U.S. lacks sufficient computing capacity. All other things being equal, that puts the model at a disadvantage. Its resolution is also more coarse than that for the leading models. With the disinvestment in the NWS and NOAA now underway, that won't change anytime soon.

Assuming things dry out, there could be another opportunity.

I expect July and August will both be warmer than normal. The pattern that is now evolving will likely be the dominant pattern this summer. I don't think next week's excessive heat will be the last such outbreak this season.

Warmer air began to overspread the region today. This week's warmth will peak tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the region. A few areas could reach or exceed 90°. The arrival of this warmth will mark the start of a sustained period of above normal temperatures. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that will likely change shortly afterward. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -4.36 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.248 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal).

At present, I suspect that the most plausible outcome is lower to middle 90s in NYC and upper 90s/near 100 in the hot spots in NJ. Some onshore flow will probably keep the truly extreme heat at bay.

Warmer air will move into the region for tomorrow. The temperature will apporach or reach 80° in New York City. This week's warmth will peak on Thursday with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the region. A few areas could reach or exceed 90°. The arrival of this warmth will mark the start of a sustained period of above normal temperatures. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that will likely change shortly afterward. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. The magnitude of the heat remains to be resolved among the guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -7.94 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.216 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal).

It will become somewhat warmer tomorrow with highs reaching the lower 70s. By Wednesday, the mercury will likely reach 80°. A sustained period of above normal temperatures will then develop by midweek. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that could change shortly afterward if some of the extended range guidance is correct. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -12.72 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal).

106.