donsutherland1

Expecting that the forecast EPO- will lead to sustained cold will likely lead to more disappointment in a disappointing winter/opening to spring. Given the impact the sustained strongly positive AO has had on the atmosphere, one will likely see a continued tendency for ridging and above normal temperatures in the East during the March 11-25 period overall despite the forecast development of a negative or strongly negative EPO. One saw such circumstances during the same period in 1990 when the EPO averaged -1.000 or below following the extreme AO+ for February. Overall, March remains on course to be much warmer than normal.

Temperatures again soared into the 60s across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Winter 2019-2020 became the 9th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through March 10. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 6.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 88% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1991-92 with 12.6" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.597. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.498 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.904. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

I’m sorry to hear this.

Temperatures soared to much above normal levels today. High temperatures included: Albany: 74°; Boston: 72°; Bridgeport: 62° (old record: 61°, 2017); Hartford: 74°; Islip: 63°; New York City: 71°; Newark: 73°; Philadelphia: 71°; and, Providence: 72° (old record: 70°, 2016). An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.830. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.894 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.143. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the 50s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 59°; Allentown: 59°; Bridgeport: 52°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 59°; Newark: 60°; and, Philadelphia: 59°. Tomorrow will be even more springlike as thermometers top out in the upper 60s and perhaps even lower 70s in some places. Overall, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures now lies ahead. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.29 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.453. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 16, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.117 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The likelihood that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases has continued to increase.

Today was a springlike day. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s under brilliant sunshine and a light breeze. The day was ideal for outdoor activities and even early-season boating.

The powerful offshore storm that brought 1"-3" snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket, along with winds that gusted past 50 mph continues to move away from the region. Starting tomorrow, much warmer air will begin streaming into the region. Afterward, an extended period of warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal conditions is likely. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -5.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.890. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 15, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.797. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

A storm developing offshore will bring a cold rain to the region tonight. Interior areas and parts of eastern New England could experience snow with perhaps a light accumulation. The exceptions are portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket where a 2"-4" snowfall is likely. In the wake of the storm, tomorrow will be blustery. However, much warmer air will return starting Sunday. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.239. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 14, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of March. On March 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.791 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.796. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

January 1996: Snowfall in Boston was 18.2" January 2016: Snowfall in Boston was 6.1"

The monthly forecast also has a much warmer than normal March across much of the nation.

Cooler air is now poised to return for a short time starting tomorrow. As that happens, a storm will likely develop and deepen well offshore with the potential to bring some light snow or snow showers to the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a light measurable snowfall remains possible. The New York City Metro area will likely see a cold rain. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.27 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.656. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 13, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the latter part of the second week of March. On March 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.793 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.887. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The probability that New York City will experience among the 10 warmest March cases on record has increased in recent days.

Perhaps somewhat related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/05/clickbait-weather-forecasts-social-media/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cwg-clickbait-410pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans From the story: On Wednesday, for example, a number of Facebook pages shared a forecast from the American GFS model showing heavy snow from Washington to Boston next Thursday, eight days into the future, when such predictions are not reliable. Other, more accurate models showed no such snow threat. But with that shaky forecast propagating through social media, several meteorologists felt compelled to confront it. “I will not buy into the hype. I will not post a phantom map,” posted meteorologist Justin Berk, who provides forecasts for Maryland on Facebook. Extreme ideas or solutions should be treated as unlikely to occur unless there is strong evidence for them. That applies to hype about stratospheric warming events, extreme GFS snowfall forecasts, and extreme analogs. The pushback from the meteorological community is welcome.

LGA also set a record high minimum temperature of 49 on March 3.

Today saw readings again reach much above normal levels. However, cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front well offshore with the potential to bring a little snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a light measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.99 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.451. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 12, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the middle of the second week of March. On March 3, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.884 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.781. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

The 12z Euro has different solution than the GFS had. I'll leave it at that.

So far, its snowy outcomes have not been mentioned by the NWS. Representative is the extended forecast discussion from Mount Holly: The airmass will moderate as the flow becomes more southwesterly through the weekend and will warm from the 40s on Saturday to upper 50s Sunday and then 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The only hitch in the this part of the extended is that clouds will increase into Tuesday as a low pressure will track up through the Ohio Valley and into New England on Tuesday, dragging a cold front across our area Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing another round of rain to the region.

The Governor needs to declare a virtual state of emergency ahead of this virtual snowstorm.

The 3/4/2020 run of the 12z showed what would be an unprecedented snowstorm. The model, using the more "conservative" 10:1 ratio, showed 20" or more snow in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. The closest storm to such a solution since regular recordkeeping began in the 19th century was the February 2003 President's Day snowstorm: The closest storm that includes the pre-National Weather Service era was the January 14-16, 1831 "Great Atlantic Snowstorm." That historic blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow in Philadelphia, 18"-20" in New York City, and around 2 feet in Boston. Almost certainly, one can expect widespread chatter on Social Media, but such a solution is highly unlikely, if not all but improbable. First, historic March snowstorms that brought 8" or more snow to all of the aforementioned cities typically had a much more expansive cold air mass and much colder air mass available to them. Second, the cold associated with the February 2003 snowstorm was severe even for January. Third, the GFS is alone in depicting what would be an almost unprecedented snowstorm. And a major caveat applies: "Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range." https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf

From the memo announcing planned implementation of the FV3-based GFS: Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf Nevertheless, the decision was made to go ahead despite the persistence of that issue. Bad decision making leads to bad outcomes. Bad outcomes can lead to a loss of confidence in the model's medium- and extended-range solutions. At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present. It should also be noted that the kind of cold that was present for the March 1956 (2nd snowstorm), 1960, and 1993 snowstorms (magnitude and expanse) is not shown on the GFS, which forecasts a storm similar to those with 10" or more snow in NYC and Boston in the Day 8-9 timeframe. The combination of an absence of support for such a storm and lack of sufficient cold argues strongly that that GFS forecast for a major March snowstorm is likely the product of the bias(es) that remained in place.

Today saw readings again reach much above normal levels. In the South, Atlanta picked up 0.49" rain today bringing its year-to-date precipitation to 20.03". That's the highest figure so early in the year. The previous record was 19.38" in 1990. Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring a little snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Recent model runs have kept the storm farther offshore lowering the probability of snowfall. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.11 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.992. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 11, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the middle of the second week of March. On March 2, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.774 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.496. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Final December 2019-February 2020 Temperature Anomalies for North America:

Temperatures rose well into the 50s today in the Middle Atlantic region. During mid-week, high temperatures could reach the 60s as ridging peaks along the East Coast at more than 150 meters above normal. Cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front with the potential to bring some snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is growing support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.80 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.814. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 10, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of the second week of March. On March 1, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.496 (RMM). The February 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.971. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

For those who are interested, Coronavirus/COVID-19 Fact Sheets can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/factsheets.html

For those keeping track of the coronavirus, here's a link to a dashboard created by Johns Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering: http://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Historic warmth in Moscow for winter 2019-2020: