donsutherland1

Temperatures are running well above the guidance. Central Park will likely reach the middle 60s and Newark will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

Morning thoughts... Today will be another mostly sunny and mild day. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 64° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler and there could showers.

In a day filled with sunshine, the temperature soared into the 60s across much of the region today. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +16.86. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.144. On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.579 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.551. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2°. The implied probability for a November mean temperature of 50.0° in Central Park is now near 80%. Since 1869, there have been 19 cases where November had a mean temperature of 50.0° or above. 14/19 (74%) went on to have a warmer than normal December, including 9/19 (47%) with a December mean temperature of 40.0° or above (2.5° or more above normal). The winter mean temperature for those 14 cases was 37.5° (2.2° above normal). The winter mean temperature for the subset of December cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above was 38.9° (3.6° above normal) and four of those cases wound up having an average winter temperature of 40.0° or above.

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 60s in the Great Lakes Region. Some of this warmer air will move into the region for today and tomorrow . As a result, today will be mostly sunny and much warmer than yesterday. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 62° The weekend will start on a mild note, but somewhat cooler air should arrive for Sunday.

Temperatures rebounded into the upper 40s after a cold start with most locations seeing low temperatures in the 20s and even teens. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +20.17. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.882. On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.555 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.682. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

The cold was impressive. The high wasn’t far off the daily record low minimum temperature, but now the cold air is departing rapidly.

Morning thoughts... Overnight low temperatures included: Boston: 22°; Bridgeport: 25°; Danbury: 18°: Islip: 22°; New York City: 30°; Newark: 26°; Philadelphia: 30°; Poughkeepsie: 18°; Westhampton: 15°; and, White Plains: 22° After a very cold start, sunshine will send temperatures rebounding. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 49° The week should end with above normal temperatures.

With strong cold air advection, temperatures remained mainly in the 30s across the region today. High temperatures included: Boston: 35° Bridgeport: 36° Islip: 37° New York City: 36° Newark: 38° Philadelphia: 40° In the West, Phoenix set a record high temperature of 89° (old record: 88°, 2008) and Tucson reached a record 91° (old record: 86°, 1990 and 2019). Tomorrow will get off to a cold start, but readings should rebound to well into the 40s during the afternoon. Afterward, temperatures will continue to rapidly moderate. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +20.10. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.970. On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.682 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.564. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

It's difficult to know for sure. Anecdotally, one is seeing a retrenchment on publicly-available data e.g., the daily EPO/WPO values are no longer provided, that hints at resource constraints.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny, blustery and cold. The temperature will struggle to get out of the 30s in many parts of the region. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 30s and lower 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 42° After a cold start, tomorrow will see milder temperatures during the afternoon. The week should end with above normal temperatures.

Ahead of an advancing cold front, the temperature rose to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. Temperatures began falling during the afternoon as colder air began filtering into the region. Tomorrow and Thursday will be unseasonably cold. The temperature will likely struggle to reach 40° in parts of the region tomorrow. In the West, high temperature records again fell. At Phoenix, the high temperature reached 92° (old record: 87°, 2008). This was also Phoenix's latest 90° temperature on record. In addition, today was Phoenix's 7th 90° or above temperature this month, which tied the November record set in 1999. Of those 7 days, November 1999 saw two days with temperatures of 92° or above. This year, all 7 days saw temperatures reach 92° or above. Tucson reached 92°, which broke the daily record of 87° from 1999. Last night, Hurricane Iota, which was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record for November, made landfall near Haulover, Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. That was about 15 miles south of where Hurricane Eta made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph earlier this month. Scientific evidence that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms has increased (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion). Temperatures will rapidly moderate beginning on Friday. Afterward, most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots. November could conclude with warmer than normal temperatures. December could open with above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas through Thursday, it will be exceptionally warm in parts of the southwestern United States. As a result, Phoenix could see additional near-record to record high temperatures through Thursday. Phoenix could also further extend its record for its latest 90° temperature on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +17.69. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.823. On November 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.451. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°. Note: 1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

It did. That was Central Park’s coldest October temperature since 1988.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny, breezy and cool. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow and Thursday will be unseasonably cold. Parts of the region will experience their lowest temperatures so far this season.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 50s across the region. Out west, Phoenix reached 92° today. That broke the daily record of 89°, which was set in 1999. It was also the latest 90° or above temperature on record for Phoenix. The previous record was 90°, which occurred on November 15, 2020. Records go back to 1895. Late tonight or early tomorrow morning Hurricane Iota will make landfall near the Honduras-Nicaragua border as either a strong Category 4 or even Category 5 hurricane. It is the only Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin during November. Tomorrow through Thursday will be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. Temperatures will return to mild levels afterward. November could conclude with warmer than normal temperatures. December could open with above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas through Thursday, it will be exceptionally warm in parts of the southwestern United States. As a result, Phoenix could see additional near-record to record high temperatures through Thursday. Phoenix could also further extend its record for its latest 90° temperature on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +11.45. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.163. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.455 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.160. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be sunny with a gusty wind. Afternoon high temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold. Parts of the region will experience their lowest temperatures so far this season. Out west, Phoenix will experience near record to record warm temperatures. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record.

We’ll have 3 days of below to much below normal temperatures and the temperatures should rebound.

The coming cold shot. Things could still rise quite a bit if some of the warmer ideas to close the month verify.

Short video clip of the passage of the squall line:

At 7:40 pm, a squall line with briefly heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and damaging winds was pushing rapidly eastward from northwest New Jersey. Ahead of the front, winds were gusting past 40 mph and the temperature had risen into the 60s. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +9.92. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.415. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.166 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

This afternoon saw increasingly gusty winds along the Long Island Sound. The temperature was in the upper 50s.

Morning thoughts... Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. During the late afternoon or evening, a cold front will cross the region with a possible squall line, brief period of heavy rain, and possible thunder and high winds. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 50s and lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 63° Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold.

A strong cold front will move across the region late tomorrow afternoon or evening. The frontal passage could be marked by a squall line with thunder, briefly heavy rain, and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Behind the front, Monday will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +17.69. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.134. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.117 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.299. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny but cool. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° A cold front will move across the region during the latter part of tomorrow afternoon or during the evening. The frontal passage could be marked by a squall line with thunder, a brief period of heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold.

The exceptional warmth was well east of Greenland. It was focused on an area extending from Scandinavia to northwestern Russia.

This place is in the high Arctic at 78N latitude. For perspective, the average July high temperature is 45 degrees. The average high temperature at this point in time is around 23 degrees.