donsutherland1

The time to look for 80s—probably multiple days—will probably be during the May 20-31 period. The pattern often snaps into a very warm one a few weeks after an exceptionally strong MJO passage through Phase 1.

Tomorrow will likely be very warm, especially from Philadelphia southward. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of tomorrow. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred when with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 region (-1.0°C in the latest weekly data). As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -12.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.613 today. On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.621 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 3.486 (RMM). The May 1 amplitude of 3.621 is the highest amplitude on record for Phase 1. The prior record was 3.602, which was set on October 18, 2011. The prior May record was 2.822, which occurred on May 18, 1991. In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible, especially during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 74° Tomorrow will become noticeably warmer, especially from Philadelphia southward.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. Showers and thundershowers are possible as a warm front moves across the region. However, Tuesday will likely be very warm. In parts of the Middle Atlantic region, it could approach see the highest readings so far this spring. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of Tuesday. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -20.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.096 today. On April 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.480 (RMM). The April 29-adjusted amplitude was 3.234 (RMM). The April 30 amplitude set a new record for highest amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 8 during the month of April for the fourth consecutive day. Prior to 2021, there had been no cases where the MJO reached an amplitude of 3.000 or above when the MJO was in Phase 8 during April. The April 30 amplitude is also the fourth highest amplitude on record when the MJO was in Phase 8. Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. The last time there was a strong Phase 8 passage was in March 2015. The amplitude was +3.584 on March 19, 2015. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. Whether or not the MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 provides the first hint of a hot summer remains to be seen.

At 2 pm, it was 81 degrees at Newark.

The period of cooling into the 1970s may have been the result of aerosols: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GISSTemperature/giss_temperature4.php

There has been a “lift off” in temperatures over the past hour. At 1 pm, Newark was 75 degrees (+8 degrees in the past hour) and New York City was 68 degrees (+6 degrees in the past hour).

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warm. A passing shower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler, but Tuesday will be very warm. Some parts of the region, especially from Philadelphia southward, could see their warmest readings so far on Tuesday.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. After a somewhat cooler day on Monday, next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -14.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.269 today. On April 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.234 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 3.073 (RMM). The April 29 amplitude set a new record for highest amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 8 during the month of April for the third consecutive day. Prior to 2021, there had been no cases where the MJO reached an amplitude of 3.000 or above when the MJO was in Phase 8 during April.

Areas as far south as Baltimore and Washington fell to 15 degrees on April 1, 1923. Albany was 9 degrees.

The temperature quickly rose into the 50s under this morning’s bright sunshine. The spring evolution continues to unfold at the New York Botanical Garden. The explosion of daffodils and cherry blossoms has now faded into memory. Azaleas and lilacs are now blooming in abundance.

There could be a cold shot sometime after the first week of May according to some of the guidance. I’m not sure it will be as impressive as the current one.

Nothing right now. The pattern will become more unsettled for a time next week, though.

Morning thoughts... An unseasonably cool air mass covers the region this morning. The arrival of that air mass produced a trace of snow in Rochester and Syracuse yesterday and a daily record 0.1" in Binghamton. Today will be sunny, breezy, and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and much warmer. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 63.1° Average temperature: 63.3° Average error: 1.6° Newark: Average daily forecast: 64.4° Average temperature: 64.2° Average error: 2.4° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 65.6° Average temperature: 65.2° Average error: 1.8°

On April 29, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 3.239. That set a new April record amplitude for Phase 8.

At 8:10 pm, some snow showers were diving southeast through the Catskills. The snow showers were indicated both by the radar and on mPing observations. Snow showers and mixed rain and snow showers are likely overnight in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northwestern New Jersey, and parts of central New York State. In New York City, April is finishing with a mean temperature near 54.6°. That was 1.6° above normal. A somewhat warmer than normal May appears likely. The weekend will start with temperatures near or just below normal. Sunday will see noticeably warmer conditions. Next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Meanwhile, in Canada's far north, Eureka in Nunavut registered a new April record high temperature of 30°. The daily record for April 30 was 21°, which was set in 1948. The prior monthly record was 29°, which was set on April 27, 2021. Unseasonable warmth will again extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains tomorrow. Some locations could challenge or break daily record high temperatures. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -5.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.311 today. On April 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.073 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 3.046 (RMM). The amplitude of 3.073 is the highest amplitude on record for the MJO's passage through Phase 8 during April. The previous record was set on April 27 at 3.046. Prior to that, there had been no cases where the amplitude reached or exceeded 3.000 during April when the MJO was in Phase 8. There were only four prior years where the MJO moved through Phase 8 during the second half of April at an amplitude of 2.000 or above. 1977 and 1979 went on to register a very warm May. 1997 and 2005 went on to see a cooler than normal May.

Mount Pocono could have a freeze with some snow showers. Binghamton might have a coating of snow. Scranton might see some showers or rain and snow, but probably no accumulation and also no freeze.

Based on the above complete chart, it appears that Roy Spencer engaged in a deceptive practice on his blog when posting a skewed chart. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/04/an-earth-day-reminder-global-warming-is-only-50-of-what-models-predict/

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.0 -0.1

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, rainfall records were set in Albany and Binghamton. Albany picked up 1.55” rain (old record: 0.91”, 1996) and Binghamton received 2.46” (old record” 0.86”, 1981). Today, clouds will break for sunshine and it will become very windy. Winds could gust at 45 mph or higher. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat cooler.

Showers and periods of rain are likely tonight into early tomorrow. The heaviest rainfall amounts (1" or more) will likely occur over central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Clouds will yield to sunshine tomorrow. It will become very windy with gusts of 45 mph or above in a large part of the region. Unseasonable warmth will extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures tomorrow or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +5.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.314 today. On April 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.046 (RMM). The April 26-adjusted amplitude was 2.720 (RMM). Today's amplitude at Phase 8 was the highest such amplitude in April recorded in April. The previous record was 2.735, which was set on April 6, 2012. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.6° (1.6° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain, especially during the afternoon into early tomorrow. A thunderstorm is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 81° Any rain will end early tomorrow. It will become somewhat cooler.

The temperature soared into the 80s in a large part of the region this afternoon. The Connecticut shore, Long Island, and parts of the Jersey shore were exceptions on account of proximity to cooler waters. High temperatures included: Allentown: 86° Atlantic City: 89° (old record: 88°, 2009) Baltimore: 89° Bridgeport: 60° Islip: 74° Harrisburg: 87° New York City-Central Park: 85° New York City-JFK: 73° New York City-LGA: 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 87° Poughkeepsie: 84° Scranton: 85° Trenton: 85° Washington, DC: 87° Wilmington, DE: 87° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler, though still mild for the season. Some showers and periods of rain are likely, especially during the afternoon into the night. The heaviest rainfall amounts (1" or more) will likely occur over central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Elsewhere, unseasonable warmth will develop in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures Friday or Saturday. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.498 today. On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.721 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.511 (RMM). Today's amplitude at Phase 8 was the highest such amplitude in April since April 6, 2012 when the amplitude was 2.735. It is also the third highest amplitude on record for Phase 8 during April. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.7° (1.7° above normal).

Earlier today, there was a large spread between the temperature at Newark and New York City's LaGuardia Airport (cited by @bluewave). However, by 3 pm, that spread was reduced to 6°, as the temperature rose sharply to 82° at LaGuardia Airport from 71° an hour earlier. Since October 7, 1939 when recordkeeping began at LaGuardia Airport, there have been 113 days on which Newark registered a high temperature that was 10° or above LaGuardia's daily high temperature. The most recent such day occurred just last week on April 21 when the temperature topped out at 75° in Newark and 65° at LaGuardia Airport. The record difference is 16°, which was set on April 15, 1949 (EWR: 85°; LGA: 69°) and tied on April 20, 1993 (EWR: 80°; LGA: 69°). The most frequent cases where Newark had a high temperature of 10° or more above LaGuardia Airport occurred during April. Top 3 Months: April: 47 (41.6%) days March: 25 (22.1%) days May: 23 (20.4%) days Seasonal Ranking: Spring: 95 (84.1%) days Summer: 11 (9.7%) days Winter: 5 (4.4%) days Fall: 3 (2.7%) days The reason for this timing concerns ocean temperatures. During the spring into the start of summer, the ocean is still relatively cool. During fall and winter, the ocean is relatively warm in contrast to air temperatures.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and very warm. Clouds could increase late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the 80s in much of the region, with the exception of Long Island, the Connecticut shore, and parts of the Jersey Shore. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 86° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some rain. Rainfall of 1” or more will likely be confined to central New York State and central New England northward. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s.