donsutherland1

As a strong cold front moved eastward, Binghamton picked up 2.7" snow. That broke the daily record of 1.4", which was set in 1991. It also raised that city's seasonal snowfall to 102.9", which ranks as 17th highest. At 8 pm, readings in and around Newark and New York City were in the lower and middle 40s. Colder air continued to press into the region. Overnight, New York City's Central Park will likely see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. Both the MOS and NBM are in good agreement about such a freeze. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cold. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 40s. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region by Sunday or Monday. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -4.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.015 today. On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.434 (RMM).

Morning thoughts... Light rain will end this morning. The clouds will gradually give break during the afternoon. It will become breezy. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the region this afternoon before falling toward evening. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 52° Tomorrow will be partly sunny, blustery and unseasonably cold. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 53.7° Average temperature: 54.2° Average error: 2.1° Newark: Average daily forecast: 55.0° Average temperature: 55.3° Average error: 2.3° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 57.3° Average temperature: 57.2° Average error: 1.9°

March 2021 finished with a mean temperature of 45.8° in New York City. That was 3.3° above normal and ranked March 2021 as the 13th warmest March on record. A brief shot of much cooler air is now on its way. As a strong cold front advances eastward and a storm moves northward along the front, there will be periods of rain overnight. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible. Following the frontal passage, April will start out on the cold side. Despite a return of sunshine tomorrow, it will be blustery and cold with highs struggling to get out of the 40s. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.512 today. On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.397 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.685 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.4 1.7 1.6 3.6 0.2 0.3 2.7 1.0 -0.8

Morning thoughts... Rain will arrive today as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. A storm will track northward along that front, but pass to the north and west of the New York City area. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder. On Friday morning, New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

March will conclude on a mild note tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s across the region. However, rain will develop during the afternoon as a strong cold front advances eastward. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible. April will start out on the side. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning. Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +1.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.852 today. On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The March 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.424 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (3.2° above normal).

Yes. There was no freeze during the storm. April 8-9, 2018 both had lows of 32 degrees.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° Rain will arrive late tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Overall, the remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. April could start out on the cold side, but moderation should occur later in the first week of the month. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.703 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.424 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.093 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (3.1° above normal).

NYC's highest snowfall with a temperature above freezing occurred on April 2, 2018 when 5.5" snow fell.

In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°.

Morning thoughts... Clouds will break and it will become partly to mostly sunny. It will also be breezy. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 57° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

A cold front will cross the region with some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Afterward, clouds will break and tomorrow should be partly sunny, breezy, and cooler. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +3.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.094 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.065 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (3.0° above normal).

Following this morning’s rainfall, thick fog moved across parts of southern Westchester County during the mid-afternoon hours. The fog largely dissipated by late afternoon.

The position of the block (east-based) will be a key difference. Snow in upstate New York, central and southern New England is far more likely with such a setup.

Morning thoughts... A storm will pass to the west of the region. Periods of rain, including some thunderstorms, are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be fair and cooler. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

Under partly to mostly sunny conditions, the temperature rose to 69° in Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, even more flowers have burst into bloom over the past week.

The last time that happened was March 29, 1998. JFK: 82°; LGA: 81°; and, NYC: 81°

Morning thoughts... In the wake of yesterday’s record-breaking warmth, today will be partly sunny and continued warm. However, it will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Clouds and rain will return for Sunday. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°. High temperatures included: Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986) Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963) Annapolis: 83° Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003) Baltimore: 83° Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954) Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004) Harrisburg: 77° Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922) Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976) Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965) New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943) New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922) Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986) Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921) Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963) Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939) Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929) Salisbury: 82° Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004) Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921) Washington, DC: 84° Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954) White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963) Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921) Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March. In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal).

Central Park reached 80 in March for the first time since March 31, 1998.

1 pm: JFK: 59 ° LGA: 71 ° NYC: 77 ° (new daily record) EWR: 80 ° (new daily record)

That surpasses the daily record of 73° from 1986.

There was a big difference between LGA (55°) and EWR (69°) at 11 am.