donsutherland1

1.09" of rain in 16 minutes so far.

Yes, today was Newark’s fourth such day this year.

Today was the hottest day of the month, so far. Highs included: Bridgeport: 94° Islip: 92° New York City-Central Park: 93° New York City-JFK Airport: 93° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98° Newark: 100° Today was also the fourth time this year that all seven locations record highs of 90° or above. Parts of the region could experience a strong thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or heavy downpours. Tomorrow will turn somewhat cooler. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 80s. Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. A thunderstorm is possible through at least Thursday. No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +3.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.234 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal).

Foliage affects recent temperatures (late 1990s to present). More is involved for the "100s drought" in late July, including but not limited to stochastic variability.

JFK Airport has reached 90° for the ninth time this year. Only 2010 with 13 days through July 8th had more such days by this time of year.

JFK and Central Park had no 100° readings during that timeframe.

Perhaps it has a small impact. The coefficient of determination was very low (0.026).

Frequency of measurable rainfall at New York City (Central Park). Note: The darker bars are days on which 5% or more of the years saw 1.00" or more daily rainfall. Years with 1.00" or More Rainfall at Central Park on July 8: 1870: 1.00" 1883: 1.01" 1899: 1.80" 1964: 1.05" 1987: 1.10" 2005: 1.46" 2021: 2.27" (Daily Record) July 8 Daily Rainfall Records: Bridgeport: 1.73", 2005 Islip: 1.42", 2005 New York City-Central Park: 2.27", 2021 New York City-JFK Airport: 1.30", 2005 New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.24", 1987 Newark: 1.61", 1899 White Plains: 1.46", 2005 2005 had the highest combined total for the three New York City sites (JFK, LGA, NYC) at 3.93". 2021 was second at 3.54". 2005 also had the highest combined total for the seven New York City Area sites with 9.71".

Through July 7, Bridgeport, Islip, JFK Airport, and White Plains are in the top 3 for the number of 70° or above lows to date. Bridgeport: 8 days (tied second with 1974 and 1999) Islip: 9 days (tied third with 2002) JFK Airport: 12 days (third) White Plains: 7 days (third) The combined figure of 36 days also ranks as the third highest. Eight of the ten highest figures through July 7 have occurred since 2000, including three since 2020 (2021, 2024, and 2025).

In my view, the climate change apocalypse has already arrived. By “apocalypse,” I mean a profound transformation rather than total destruction, while acknowledging that at some point of warming, total destruction would become a viable scenario. The evidence is unmistakable to any objective observer: more frequent and extreme heatwaves, intensified precipitation events, accelerating aridification in the Desert Southwest and parts of Europe, and vast marine heatwaves disrupting ocean ecosystems. Scientists have laid out these findings clearly, coherently, and convincingly. Science has not failed us. Instead, it is many of our leaders, both political and corporate, who have failed. Entrenched in a status quo from which they profit, they are prisoners of tunnel vision, unable or unwilling to see the full picture. They lack the courage to enact the changes needed to prevent this transformation from worsening. Instead, they display staggering creativity in inventing excuses for inaction. They pour vast energy into preserving an unsustainable and increasingly destructive system. They claim that a world that does not burn fossil fuels is impossible. Yet history proves otherwise. Society has achieved far greater transformations within even tighter timelines. It harnessed atomic energy in a desperate race against the Nazis, sent humans to the Moon in less than a decade, and largely phased out CFCs to save the ozone layer in the 1990s. Society could have undertaken a similar transition away from fossil fuels. Moreover, the level of difficulty was less than that for atomic energy or the Apollo Project. This time, society had decades rather than years to act. Ultimately, society chose another path, not because a transition was impossible, but because too many of its leaders lacked the courage to break free from the familiar, comfortable status quo.

Tomorrow will be very warm with highs reaching the upper 80s to perhaps 90° in New York City and the lower and middle 90s in Newark. Wednesday through Friday will be turn cooler with increased clouds. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to near 80° through Friday. Each day could feature the risk of some heavy thunderstorms. The rainfall amount could be enhanced somewhat by some of the moisture from Chantals remnants. No widespread excessive heat appears likely through mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -4.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.160 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal).

87 degrees at Longwood Gardens.

I agree. It is disappointing that the situation at Central Park has been neglected. The data no longer reliably reflects summer conditions in Manhattan. No matter how the data is examined, one sees an unmistakable impact during the summer or full foliage months.

Another look at Central Park's summer temperature issue: During 1970-1995, there were 5.4 days per summer when Central Park's high temperature was 1° or more cooler than the cooler high at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport. During 1996-2024, that figure was 22.8 days. Since 2000, that figure has averaged 24.0 days. The change in those averages are even more dramatic for days when Central Park had a high temperature that was at least 2° cooler than the cooler high at JFK Airport or LaGuardia Airport: 1970-1995: 1.3 days per summer 1996-2024: 11.1 days per summer 2000-2024: 12.2 days per summer Not all of this change has to do with the trees, but most of it does. One has seen smaller changes in the same direction for January 1-March 31 (no foliage) and October 1-December 31 (low foliage). However, the summer (full foliage) change is biggest. Change in Days with Highs 1° or More Cooler than the Cooler High at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport: 1996-2024 vs. 1970-1995: January-March: +93%; June-August: +322%; October-December: +122% Change in Days with Highs 2° or More Cooler than the Cooler High at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport: 1996-2024 vs. 1970-1995: January-March: +59%; June-August: +754%; October-December: +135%

Tomorrow will be warm with highs reaching the middle 80s across the New York City area. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +3.57 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.175 today.

2 consecutive days in 1948, not 3.

Yes. There was also August 26-28, 1948.

Yes. That's correct. I misspoke. I had checked whether 1917 was the longest streak and didn't check all the dates all of them occurred.

Yes. Those are the records for each location. The 1917 stretch is the only 4-day streak on record for Central Park.

Today was another very warm day. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 90° Islip: 90° New York City-Central Park: 88° New York City-JFK Airport: 89° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92° Newark: 94° Today was the third day this year that Bridgeport and Islip hit 90° or above while Central Park did not. That breaks the record of two such days that was set in 2006. Parts of the region will experience a strong thunderstorm this evening. Afterward, generally warm weather will prevail through Saturday with readings mainly in the middle 80s. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +13.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.923 today.

JFK: 3; LGA and NYC: 4; EWR: 6.

Setting aside extreme maximum temperatures in the area most affected by the Dust Bowl, on a nationwide basis, such summers have already been matched or exceeded. Only 136 retains the top spot (in a tie).

At best, there is a hint of an uncertain weak cyclical effect. However, changes in aerosols may well have driven most of the cooling seen in the 1960s. In any case, strong and persistent warming from UHI + anthropogenic climate change have overwhelmed any periodicity that might exist in Phoenix. The warmest summer during the 1930s was 1933 with a mean of 91.7° and the warmest year during the 1930s was 1934 with a mean of 74.2°. Every summer and every year since 2000 has exceeded those figures. The last cooler summer was 1999 and the last cooler year was 1998.

I'm not sure where he gets some of his data from. Yes, the USCRN data debunks his claims.

As of 2 pm, Islip (6 days) and JFK Airport (8 days) have had more 90° or above highs than Central Park (4 days). The only time that occurred during an entire year was 2006 (Islip: 10 days; JFK Airport: 12 days; Central Park: 8 days).