Jump to content

donsutherland1

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    21,814

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by donsutherland1

  1. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 65° It will become noticeably warmer tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.0° Newark: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5°
  2. donsutherland1
    Parts of the region experienced occasional showers and light rain during the afternoon into the evening. Periods of rain will continue into tomorrow. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Additional showers are possible on Tuesday. With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +23.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.404 today. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.380 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.222 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal).
  3. donsutherland1
    I expect the 3,000 pound threshold to be surpassed within the next few years.
  4. donsutherland1
    Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 60s across the region. Philadelphia saw the temperature peak at 70°. Out West, Lincoln, NE hit 82°. Three days earlier, Lincoln registered at low temperature of 16°. The 82° high is the highest October temperature 3 or fewer days after a 16° or colder low temperature. The prior mark was 67°, which occurred on October 28, 1887 following a 15° low temperature three days earlier. Tomorrow, the mercury could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps make a run at 90°. In the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, tomorrow will become mostly cloudy. Rain will arrive and continue into Monday. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Afterward, with the MJO currently in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +17.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.746 today. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.220 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.132 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal).
  5. donsutherland1
    Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature soared into the middle 60s in New York City. The giant pumpkins, one of which weighed in at 2,554 pounds, had arrived to the New York Botanical Garden. Overall, it was a festive mid-autumn day.
  6. donsutherland1
    IMO, the month will be 0.5 degrees to 1.0 degrees below normal in most of the region. Yesterday’s guidance may have been a bit aggressive on the closing week’s warmth.
  7. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Rain will overspread the area tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.8° Newark: 30-Year: 63.7°; 15-Year: 64.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3°
  8. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be another sunny day. Temperatures will surge into the middle and upper 60s. Some locations will likely reach or exceed 70°. The second half of the weekend will see clouds increase. A period of rain is likely from late Sunday into Monday. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Afterward, with the MJO currently in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. The latest guidance suggests that the closing week of October could have a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. That would rank among the 10 warmest closing weeks of October on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +7.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.136 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.280 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal).
  9. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and somewhat milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 66° Rain could arrive on Sunday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.6°; 15-Year: 63.2° Newark: 30-Year: 64.1°; 15-Year: 65.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.3°; 15-Year: 65.7°
  10. donsutherland1
    Today saw slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. Tomorrow will be several degrees warmer and the weekend will see temperatures surge into the middle and perhaps upper 60s. However, a period of rain is likely from late Sunday into Monday. The potential exists for a moderate rainfall. Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +1.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.266 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.280 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (1.1° below normal).
  11. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and a bit milder. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 61° Tomorrow will be somewhat milder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.6° Newark: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.6°; 15-Year: 66.1°
  12. donsutherland1
    Today was another unseasonably cool day. The temperature was again confined to the 50s. Parts of the East saw record cold. Records included: Baton Rouge: 34° (old record: 36°, 1948) Charleston: 37° (old record: 39°, 1948) Jacksonville: 42° (old record: 43°, 1981 and 2009) Little Rock: 33° (tied record set in 1989) Savannah: 38° (old record: 40°, 2009) Tomorrow will be another chilly day following a frosty start in many suburban areas with temperatures peaking in the 50s. A few areas will reach or exceed 60°. Moderation is possible during the weekend. However, there will be a risk of precipitation. Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +7.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.298 today. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.404 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (1.3° below normal).
  13. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Tomorrow will be another cool day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 63.3°; 15-Year: 64.0° Newark: 30-Year: 64.8°; 15-Year: 65.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.0°; 15-Year: 66.6°
  14. donsutherland1
    Despite partly sunny skies, readings were largely confined to the 50s in much of the region. Tomorrow will be another chilly day following a frosty start in many suburban areas with temperatures again peaking in the 50s. Moderation is possible during the weekend. There will be a risk of precipitation. Chicago could see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season tomorrow morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018. Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +16.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.403 today. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.452 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.6° (1.5° below normal).
  15. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 58° Tomorrow will be another very cool day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 63.6°; 15-Year: 64.4° Newark: 30-Year: 65.2°; 15-Year: 66.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.4°; 15-Year: 67.0°
  16. donsutherland1
    A cold front is crossing the region. In its wake, much cooler air will cover the region through Friday. Tomorrow will be a chilly with readings rising only into the 50s. Moderation is possible during the weekend. There will be a risk of precipitation. Chicago could see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season tomorrow or Wednesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018. Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +18.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.815 today. On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.050 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.5° (1.4° below normal).
  17. donsutherland1
    It was 95, which beat the prior record by 10 degrees.
  18. donsutherland1
    Seattle beat its daily record high temperature by 16°F (tied for the 2nd largest margin). There are 14 days on which the margin of record is 10°F or above, with a disproportionate share of such days occurring since 2015.
  19. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. There will be some showers, especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 68° Much cooler air will move into the region by tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.0°; 15-Year: 64.8° Newark: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.7°; 15-Year: 67.4°
  20. donsutherland1
    Portland, OR registered its third extreme October heat event this month. No previous October had more than one.
  21. donsutherland1
    Seattle reached an astonishing 88 degrees today, smashing is daily mark by 16 degrees and its second half of October record by 14 degrees. Bellingham, WA reached 80 degrees for the first time ever in October.
  22. donsutherland1
    Under partly sunny skies, readings again climbed into the 60s across the region. Out West, it was another day of exceptional heat in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle recorded its highest temperature so late in the season and its second highest October reading on record. Only October 1, 1987 (89°) had a higher temperature. Bellingham, WA set an October monthly record. Its previous latest 80° temperature occurred on September 28, 2003 and again on September 28, 2017. Preliminary high temperatures included: Abbotsford, BC: 79° (old record: 76°, 2002) Bellingham, WA: 80° (old record: 71°, 2015 and 2018) ***New October Record*** Portland: 85° (old record: 80°, 2002) Seattle: 88° (old record: 72°, 2018) Vancouver: 68° (old record: 66°, 1997) Victoria: 75° (old record: 71°, 2002) Much cooler air will move into the region early this week. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures rising into the 60s. A shower is possible tomorrow as a cold front cross the region. Behind the front, temperatures will rise no higher than the 50s through Thursday in many parts of the region. Moderation is possible during the weekend. Chicago will likely see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season late tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018. Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +24.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.978 today. On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.852 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (1.6° below normal).
  23. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 70° Much cooler air will move into the region by Tuesday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.2° Newark: 30-Year: 65.9°; 15-Year: 67.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.1°; 15-Year: 67.9°
  24. donsutherland1
    Temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s today. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. However, much cooler air will likely move into the region early next week. Out West, the temperature smashed record highs in the Pacific Northwest. Records included: Astoria, OR: 83° (old record: 78°, 1954) *** latest 80° high on record*** Portland: 87° (old record: 80°, 1991 and 2015) Salem, OR: 92° (old record: 89°, 1901) ***latest 90° high on record*** Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +24.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.086 today. On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.689 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal).
  25. donsutherland1
    Under brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60s, the New York Botanical Garden held a pumpkin-carving contest between three internationally-recognized artists. Alan Silva Lincoln Bias Lenny Calvin The winner is announced The winning carving
×
×
  • Create New...