donsutherland1

I saw the struggle for snow in some of the areas. Hyannis stayed above freezing. Provincetown was mostly rain.

It will be challenging. There could be 1-2 opportunities for at least some measurable snowfall before January concludes. Ensemble support for January 22-24 has increased somewhat in recent cycles.

Winter futility ranking through January 15th.

Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 48° Temperatures will average above normal during the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.9° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.7°

In terms of earlier winters, 1931-32 ranked 2nd behind 2001-02. 1918-19 ranked 6th. Those rankings are for the entire snow season.

Using today's data, 1949-50 will move up to 9th on the list (40.7° mean temperature/1.8" snow through January 15th). For the entire winter, it tied with 1974-75 at 12th with a mean temperature of 37.7° and seasonal snowfall of 14.0".

An offshore storm will graze eastern Long Island and eastern New England tonight and tomorrow. Parts of that region, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Boston could pick up around an inch of snow. Meanwhile, the lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of the week before cooler air returns. The duration of any cooler period is uncertain, as some of the extended guidance returns ridging to the East near the end of January or very early in February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +8.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.907 today. On January 13 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.946 (RMM). The January 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.875 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (7.1° above normal).

An offshore storm spread clouds but not snow into snow drought-stricken southeastern New York State today.

The measurable snow drought is likely to continue for some time in Baltimore, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. The 12z GFS offers a grim nightmare of the drought’s continuation through its forecast horizon. However, skill scores drop significantly after 7 days.

1999 had the March snowstorm.

It would be great to have an outlier storm like that at some point. For winters that had no measurable snowfall through December 31st, here's how things progressed during January. 2015-16 stands almost alone, though three other winters wound up with 10" or more snow in January: 1885-86, 1891-92, and 1965-66. 1999-00 (9.5") just missed.

I also found this link: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html I've bookmarked it for future reference.

This is the only link I have with verification scores: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/

Winter 2022-2023 to date vs. other bad winters (warmth and lack of snowfall):

Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly sunny and seasonably cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 44° Temperatures will average above normal during the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 39.9° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.7°

Parts of the region saw snow flurries and snow showers, along with temperatures in the 30s. Nevertheless, New York City (Central Park) again failed to record measurable snow. The measurable snow drought has now reached 311 consecutive days, which is the 4th longest such stretch on record. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably cold. An offshore storm could spread clouds into the region late tomorrow into Monday. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Right now, the odds favor a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in that area. Farther west, the measurable snow drought will very likely continue in Philadelphia and New York City. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of next week before cooler air returns. The duration of any cooler period is uncertain, as some of the extended guidance returns ridging to the East near the end of January or very early in February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was -9.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.233 today. On January 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.874 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.529 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

A short video from this morning.

A dusting in colder spots.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with some flurries. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 30s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 37° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 39° Tomorrow will be fair and a bit warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 40.0° Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.8°

It will be brief. There was no accumulation.

If it holds together.

There’s a wet snow shower in parts of southern Westchester County. No accumulation has occurred.

Another day has passed and the misery inflicted by Winter 2022-2023 intensifies. New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have yet to see measurable snow.

A seasonably cool air mass is pushing into the region for the the weekend. An offshore storm could spread clouds into the region Sunday into Monday. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Right now, the odds favor a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in that area. Farther west, the measurable snow drought will very likely continue in Philadelphia and New York City. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was -14.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.028 today. On January 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.529 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.747 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).