donsutherland1

Tomorrow and Saturday will be partly sunny and mild days. Saturday could see the mercury approach or reach 50° in New York City. New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +4.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.596 today. On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.590 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.544 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (8.6° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

Islip tied the daily record high of 55 yesterday. That record was set in 2010 during a snowier winter than the current one.

It’s very likely not credible. The journal is listed among predatory journals. https://beallslist.net

That’s terrible. I’m sorry to hear of this.

Perhaps a short shot of below normal temperatures. Nothing really severe.

It should be dry for the remainder of January once the ongoing storm moves away.

We’ll need the lows to be higher.

I think we'll fall short.

Another storm is bringing precipitation to the New York City area. As has been the theme this winter, at least so far, there has been no measurable snow. Seemingly, back in 2000, country singer Jo Dee Messina nailed New York City's forecast before the January 25 6z GFS did with her "Bring on the rain." New York City wound up picking up just a trace of snow. That extended its measurable snow drought to 322 consecutive days, which ranks as the second longest such stretch on record. New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +14.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.545 today. On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.541 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.525 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (8.3° above normal).

Today would be the 322nd day.

Yes, the record is 332 consecutive days.

Yes, he’s fallen far.

We almost had <1” in 1997-98. I suspect that we’ll avoid such a sad outcome this winter. But a lot can still go wrong.

The 2.5” shown for today won’t verify. And that’s from today’s 6z run!

Snow season futility rankings through January 24th.

Thanks for sharing.

Today saw mild readings in the middle and upper 40s across the region. Newark topped out at 50°. A storm will bring snow rapidly changing to rain across the region tomorrow. New York City will see little or no accumulation, as recent guidance has backed off measurable amounts. The 18z GFS still shows a small measurable snowfall. The distant northern and western suburbs are in line for 1-3" of snow. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +16.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.254 today. This was the first positive AO reading since November 22, 2022 when the AO was +0.064. On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.523 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.608 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.8° (8.1° above normal).

In the wake of today's storm, tomorrow will be partly sunny and still mild. The respite from precipitation won't last long. New York City's long measurable snow drought will very likely end on Wednesday as a storm brings accumulating snow changing to rain to New York City. A general 1" or less snowfall appears likely in and around New York City with 1"-3" likely in the far northern and western suburbs. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +13.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.834 today. On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.608 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.173 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.6° (7.9° above normal).

Ensemble members for NYC:

Morning thoughts… Light rain or wet snow will end today. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 43° After a dry Tuesday, accumulating snow changing to rain will arrive in New York City on Wednesday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 39.7° Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.5°

The latest EPS forecast for NYC:

A storm will bring rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. Some sleet is possible at the onset in New York City and Newark. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. A 1"-3" accumulation of snow is possible well north and west of Newark and New York City. There is a small chance that the rain could end as a period of snow in New York City tomorrow with a minor accumulation. New York City's long measurable snow drought will likely end on Wednesday. Support for a measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period is now moderate-to-high on the ensembles. The National Blend of Models has increased to 0.8" during January 25. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through much or all of the first week of February. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +19.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.098 today. On January 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.100 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.716 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.5° (7.8° above normal).

Just before a rain/sleet mixture moved in.

A rain/sleet mixture has moved into southern Westchester County.

New York City's snow season fultility rankings through January 21st. Winter 2022-2023 will likely fall on this list later this week as the City sees its first measurable snowfall at Central Park on Wednesday.