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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with additional potentially heavy showers and thunderstorms. More very warm and perhaps hot weather could develop next week. Next week could also see an extreme heat event develop in the Southwest. Cities such as Tucson and Phoenix could see readings rise toward record daily levels. The excessive heat could extend across New Mexico and a large part of Texas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +9.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.873 today. On July 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.634 (RMM). The July 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.867 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).
  2. donsutherland1
    It will be steamy and very warm through the end of the week. Temperatures could continue to reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday with potentially heavy showers and thunderstorms. More very warm and perhaps hot weather could develop next week. Next week could also see an extreme heat event develop in the Southwest. Cities such as Tucson and Phoenix could see readings rise toward record daily levels. The excessive heat could extend across New Mexico and a large part of Texas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +14.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.681 today. On July 5 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.871 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.643 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62 probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.8° (1.3° above normal).
  3. donsutherland1
    The temperature again soared into the lower 90s across parts of the region. The heat extended into Maine where Bangor reached 92° and Caribou reached a record-tying 91°. It will be steamy and very warm through the end of the week. Temperatures could continue to reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. Next week could also see an extreme heat event develop in the Southwest. Cities such as Tucson and Phoenix could see readings rise toward record daily levels. The excessive heat could extend across New Mexico and a large part of Texas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +16.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.528 today. On July 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.642 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.607 (RMM).
  4. donsutherland1
    Temperatures surged into the 90s across many parts of the region. Highs included: New York City: 93°, Newark: 94°, and Philadelphia: 93°. Another very warm day lies ahead for tomorrow. It will be steamy and very warm through the end of the week. Temperatures could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +12.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.415 today. On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.603 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.687 (RMM).
  5. donsutherland1
    Probably a combination of the frontal location and stochastic processes. Convection remains challenging to forecast with often large differences among the models and also outcomes.
  6. donsutherland1
    We didn’t get the worst of the smoke, as the wind directed it elsewhere. On June 7, the wind brought the thickest smoke to the NYC area and then Philadelphia and Washington the following day.
  7. donsutherland1
    Heavier showers and thundershowers drenched parts of the region today. Parts of Connecticut experienced flash flooding. Newark set a new daily rainfall record with 1.19" (old record: 1.07", 1952). Mammatus clouds moved across the sky in New York City and nearby regions. It will be steamy and very warm through the end of the week. Temperatures could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +9.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.519 today. On July 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.687 (RMM). The July 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.614 (RMM).
  8. donsutherland1
    Two photos following earlier thundershowers and downpours.
  9. donsutherland1
    And still the world remains largely on autopilot with fossil fuel production expanding even as renewables expand. The former needs to be phased out, and increasingly rapidly, to offset the consequences of delay and hold the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
  10. donsutherland1
    A heavy downpour popped up and moved through Larchmont, NY. Another shower developed shortly afterward.
  11. donsutherland1
    It will be steamy and very warm tomorrow through Thursday. Temperatures could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region through Thursday. Shower and thundershower activity will become more limited. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The hottest weather so far now covers the Desert Southwest. Phoenix reached a near-record 116° today. That was its hottest reading since June 19, 2021 when the mercury also topped out at 116°. Readings will continue to reach or exceed 110° through the remainder of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +6.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.493 today. On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.587 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.397 (RMM).
  12. donsutherland1
    It will be steamy and very warm tomorrow through Thursday. Tomorrow could see some showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region through Thursday. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The hottest weather so far now covers the Desert Southwest. Las Vegas topped out at 110° and Phoenix reached 115°. Death Valley finished with a high of 126°, the world's highest temperature so far this year. Tomorrow will likely see temperatures reach or exceed 115° in Phoenix and 120° in Death Valley. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +16.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.101 today. On June 30 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.962 (RMM). The June 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.396 (RMM).
  13. donsutherland1
    An advancing warm front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region tonight through tomorrow night. Afterward, it will turn warmer than normal. The Tuesday-Thursday period could see temperatures reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The hottest weather so far has now moved into the Desert Southwest. Through 4 pm PST, Phoenix had a high temperature of 114°, which was just below the daily record of 115° from 1990. Phoenix could see temperatures reach or exceed 115° tomorrow and Monday. Death Valley will likely exceed 120°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +18.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.347 today. On June 29 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.962 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.831 (RMM).
  14. donsutherland1
    Miami recorded its warmest January 1-June 30 period on record. The prior record was set in 2020.
  15. donsutherland1
    June finished with a mean temperature of 70.0° in New York City. That was 2.0° below normal. Temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The Desert Southwest will likely see its hottest temperatures so far this year during the weekend into early next week. As has been the case throughout June, extreme heat appears unlikely in the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the foreseeable future. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +17.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.693 today. On June 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.831 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.066 (RMM).
  16. donsutherland1
    Wildfire smoke in New York City this afternoon. The AQI remained in the 160s throughout the afternoon.
  17. donsutherland1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.3 1.2 1.7 0.6 1.0 1.2 -0.8 1.0 2.5
  18. donsutherland1
    Wildfire smoke in the New York area.
  19. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. However, temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July. Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The Desert Southwest will likely see its hottest temperatures so far this year during the weekend into early next week. As has been the case throughout June, extreme heat appears unlikely in the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the foreseeable future. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was -0.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.753 today. On June 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.334 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (2.0° below normal).
  20. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. However, temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +1.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.842 today. On June 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.342 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.508 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (2.0° below normal).
  21. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Unsettled weather will likely continue through tomorrow. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy. Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included: Austin: 105° Brownsville: 99° Corpus Christi: 101° (tied record set in 1980 and tied in 2012) ***record 6th 100° June day*** Cotulla: 113° (old record: 109°, 1902) Del Rio: 110° (old record: 108°, 1980) ***10th consecutive record high*** Houston: 99° Junction: 106° (tied record set in 2012) Laredo: 110° (old record: 109°, 1980 and 1994) McAllen: 105° San Angelo: 109° (tied record set in 1994) San Antonio: 104° Victoria: 99° Zapata: 109° (tied record set in 1980) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +10.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.888 today. On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.508 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.413 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).
  22. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Unsettled weather will likely continue through Wednesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy. Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included: Austin: 105° Brownsville: 99° Corpus Christi: 101° ***Record 5th 100° day in June*** Cotulla: 112° (old record: 109°, 2012) Del Rio: 111° (old record: 109°, 2012) ***9th consecutive record high*** Houston: 97° Junction: 106° Laredo: 109° McAllen: 103° Rio Grande Village: 118° (old record: 112°, 2011 and 2012) San Angelo: 112° (old record: 108°, 1918, 1994, and 2012) Victoria: 99° Zapata: 109° (old record: 108°, 1980) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +16.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.596 today. On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.486 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).
  23. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Unsettled weather will likely continue through Tuesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy. Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 6 pm CDT included: Austin: 103° Brownsville: 97° Corpus Christi: 99° Cortulla: 110° (old record: 106°, 2012) Del Rio: 110° (old record: 106°, 1994) Houston: 98° Junction: 104° Laredo: 109° (tied record set in 1994) Mcallen: 102° San Angelo: 111° (old record: 105°, 1994 and 2011) ***4th time pre-2023 all-time high as been reached*** San Antonio: 102° Victoria: 97° Zapata: 108° (old record: 106°, 1980) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +13.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.173 today. On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.491 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.512 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).
  24. donsutherland1
    New research has revealed that the Pacific marine heatwave known as “the Blob” was very likely the result of climate change. https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-find-what-s-been-fueling-the-murderous-ocean-heatwave-called-the-blob
  25. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Unsettled weather will likely continue through Tuesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers. Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included: Austin: 102° Brownsville: 98° Corpus Christi: 98° (tied record set in 1990 and tied in 2009 and 2012) Cotulla: 108° (old record: 107°, 2022) Del Rio: 107° (old record: 106°, 2018) ***7th consecutive record high*** Houston: 96° Junction: 102° Laredo: 107° McAllen: 102° San Angelo: 108° (old record: 107°, 1911, 1928, and 2018) San Antonio: 102° (tied record set in 1994 and tied in 2009) Victoria: 107° Zapata: 107° (tied record set in 1969) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +5.27 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.665 today. On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.520 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).
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