donsutherland1
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Everything posted by donsutherland1
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Light snow with small flakes in Larchmont, but temperatures are above freezing and the snow is not sticking as of now.
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Overnight, a storm passing well south of the region brought a light snowfall to the region. Snowfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 7.8" Baltimore: 3.8" Bridgeport: 2.0" New York City-Central Park: 1.5" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.8" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.5" Newark: 1.5" Philadelphia: 3.1" Washington, DC: 6.4" The storm was Washington, DC's second 6" or greater snowstorm this winter. The last time a winter had two such storms was Winter 2013-2014. Another system will follow closely behind. This system will bring another light snowfall followed by a fairly quick changeover to sleet and then rain tomorrow. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City. After mid-month, a period of much below normal temperatures is likely. A generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +0.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.009 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).
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It's not a slam dunk either way. Some of the lagged composites have some cold that gives way to milder conditions. There are MJO cases (amplitude 1.0 or above) that have gone both ways. With wave lengths shortening and the seasonal transition getting underway, I'd be especially cautious about making firm conclusions (warm or cold) this far out, especially as MJO forecast skill also drops off markedly beyond 10-14 days.
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If the numbers verify, Winter 2024-25 would have a seasonal mean temperature of 34.1° in New York City. That would be the coldest winter since 2014-15, which had a mean temperature of 31.7°.
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That's an early PNS before the snow stopped falling on Long Island. All in all, it looks as if the storm was well forecast. The HRRR did badly, but that isn't a big surprise, as it was well off track by early yesterday evening.
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There are some 3" amounts (including a 3.1" amount) on Long Island taken by NWS employees in Suffolk County. Those reports will likely be in the next PNS.
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Washington, DC picked up 6.3" of snow. This was the second 6" or above snowstorm this winter. The last time that happened was Winter 2013-2014.
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Washington, DC has received 4" or more snow for the second time this winter. The last time that occurred was during Winter 2014-2015.
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Early on, the HRRR seems to be faring poorly in and around the Washington, DC area. It remains to be seen how this will translate farther north. Nevertheless, I'm still comfortable with the idea of a 1"-3" snowfall in and near New York City with perhaps 2"-4" on the south shore of Long Island.
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As of 4:40 pm, it was snowing moderately in Washington, DC and lightly in Baltimore. Flurries had just moved into Philadelphia and Atlantic City. The first snow will reach New York City early tonight. Light snow is likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs into tomorrow. A general 1"-3" snowfall is likely in New York City and nearby suburbs by the time the snow ends on Wednesday. The south shore of Long Island could pick up 2"-4" of snow. The highest amounts will be south of the City. Amounts will rapidly fall off in the Hudson Valley. Washington, DC will likely see 4"-8" of snow. If Washington reaches 6" or more, that would be its second 6" or above snowstorm this winter for the first time since Winter 2013-2014. Another system will follow closely behind. This system will likely bring another light snowfall followed by a fairly quick changeover to sleet and then rain on Thursday. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City. After mid-month, a period of much below normal temperatures is likely. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +5.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.782 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).
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There are no cases during the timeframe where the AO was at or below -1 while the NAO was positive.
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For reference, clusters for New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during the second half of February since 1950: With shortening wave lengths, it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest storms have featured a deep trough extending from just off Pacific Northwest into the Gulf of Alaska.
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The HREF remains relatively unchanged for SE Pennsylvania to NYC/Long Island. There's actually some improvement for the South Shore of Long Island. 2/11 0z: 2/11 12:
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It will be increasingly cloudy tomorrow. Light snow will likely overspread the New York City area late tomorrow afternoon or during the evening hours. A general 1"-3" snowfall is likely in New York City and nearby suburbs by the time the snow ends on Wednesday. The highest amounts will be south of the City. Amounts will rapidly fall off in the Hudson Valley. Washington, DC could see its second 6" or above snowstorm this winter for the first time since Winter 2013-2014. Another system could follow closely behind. This system will likely bring another light snowfall followed by a changeover to sleet and then rain. No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +16.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.910 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).
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Final outcomes:
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The New York City area saw its biggest snowfall of the year last night into very early this morning. In general, New York City saw 2"-4" of snow while distant northern and eastern suburbs picked up 3"-6" of snow. Accumulations included: Bridgeport: 5.0" Islip: 4.0" New York City-Central Park: 3.1" New York City-JFK Airport: 3.4" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.6" Newark: 3.0" Another storm could affect the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Its exact track will be crucial to determining whether the region is merely grazed by the storm with a light accumulation or experiences a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall. Currently, the odds lean toward a 1"-3"/2"-4"-type snowfall in and around New York City, but there remains some uncertainty about the storm's track. Washington, DC could see its second 6" or above snowstorm this winter for the first time since Winter 2013-2014. No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +28.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.598 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (3.0° below normal).
