Quincy

I've been creating daily 6-day forecasts for the better part of this year, with a focus on inland Connecticut. Before making any forecast, I take a close look at the computer model forecasts through Day 6, including a few forecast techniques to see how verification pans out. In April, I had 29 days worth of data, out of a possible 30, to measure forecast accuracy. As expected, forecast error generally increases with time. It is interesting to note a spike at Day 5 and a decrease at Day 6. That goes back to two particular days that had poor Day 5 forecasts vs. actual temperatures. The spread is relatively uniform as well. The error with the NAM model does seem to increase faster with time than the others, which is not a surprise. DGEX data was used for Days 5 and 6. With respect to my own forecasts, I measure verification as a mean of inland temperatures across the state. When I look at the computer models, I choose Meriden (KMMK) as a central point. This is due to its location near the center of the state. With that said, since my own verification is slightly different than the control (KMMK), this may skew results slightly. For that reason, I will be creating 6-day forecasts specifically for Meriden as a go-forward. The Euro and MAV MOS rank fairly close, but it is very interesting to note that the negative (cold) bias the Euro has is almost a mirror reflection of the MAV MOS positive (warm) bias: The MAV MOS appears to correct some of its bias towards Days 5 and 6. That can perhaps be partially explained by the fact that MOS is skewed towards climatological temperatures. The NAM also seems to have somewhat of a cool bias. I re-project highs from the NAM for Day 1, but that re-projection seems to over compensate the bias, at least in the case of April. Explaining the models/forecasts... Q: My forecast high temperatures for inland Connecticut. (mean of inland stations) MAV MOS: Forecast high temperatures for KMMK. (06z model run) ECMWF: Forecast grid-point high temperatures for KMMK. (00z model run) NAMDGEX: Approximate high temperatures for KMMK. These values are interpolated off of a graphical forecast, so the numbers are estimated. I use the NAM for Days 1-4 and the DGEX for Days 5 and 6. (06z model runs) 850mb: An 850mb forecast technique that I have been working on for quite some time. Because this technique is based off of Danbury (KDXR), that station is used for verification. LAMP MOS: Forecast high temperatures for KMMK. (most recent run in morning) NAM Re-projection: This takes into account the actual 9 a.m. temperature vs. the 06z forecast for 9 a.m. for KMMK. That error is then re-projected into the high temperature forecast. Example: If the 9 a.m. temperature was 2°F warmer than forecast, then 2°F is added to the high temperature forecast. Consensus: A mean of each forecast above, including my previous forecast (continuity) How accurate was a Euro/MAV MOS blend? Well, not only do the opposing biases balance out close to zero, but the overall forecast error was less than any other forecast technique for Days 2-6: It's pretty interesting to see the results. It goes beyond comparing computer model verification. In order to become a better forecaster, I want to see what forecasts have worked out, which ones haven't and if I have any biases. This is only one month's worth of data, so more will need to be compiled over the long-run to see how models perform. I also expect that different models/techniques will perform differently depending on the season, weather pattern, etc.

A cold front is forecast to move from west to east across the East Coast on Wednesday. The result could mean scattered thunderstorms along the front, along with a few severe thunderstorms. (Marginal threat) Middle Appalachians into DE, PA, inland NJ and interior NY. A similar setup to this past Friday is expected on Wednesday, with a cold front moving across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. The only difference here is that the cold front is not as strong as that scenario (last Friday) and less convective activity is expected. Ahead of the cold front, some marginal destabilization is expected as near-surface temperatures rise into the 70's, slightly steepening lapse rates. As a result, Lifted Index values between 0 and -2 are forecast. MUCAPE is meager, with values generally less than 500 J/Kg. Although dew-points are forecast to be in the mid to upper 50's, wind shear and helicity is forecast to be somewhat less than the last event. Bulk shear of 30 to 50kt is forecast across eastern Pennsylvania, coupled with storm relative helicity values of 100-200, so some isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. (Low threat) Interior Virginia, Central Maryland and portions of eastern Pennsylvania. In this region, the timing of the cold front corresponds closely with the peak daytime heating. There's also a sliver of 500 to 1000 J/Kg CAPE values expected in south-central Pennsylvania, down into Maryland and Virginia. It's also in this general area that there is a marginal tornado threat, however the tornadic setup on Wednesday is also less impressive than it was last Friday. Graphics to differentiate between the damaging wind and tornado threats: (No appreciable severe weather threat) Southern New England, Long Island and coastal plain of New Jersey. The cold front does not make it into this area until midnight or a few hours afterward. At that time, moisture is very limited, wind shear values relax and there should be little to no instability to fuel thunderstorm activity. Threat definitions...(Severe thunderstorm = wind gusts to 58 MPH and/or >1" hail) Marginal: Conditions are marginally favorable for severe thunderstorms. Low: Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms. Moderate: Conditions are moderately favorable for severe thunderstorms. High: Conditions are very favorable for severe thunderstorms. Extreme: Conditions are extremely favorable and dangerous thunderstorms are likely. As the spring season goes forward, I will be making more severe weather outlooks. Any feedback is appreciated and I am still working on the outlook/threat scale. I would like to compare forecasts to verification in the future, so some thought will be needed to address just how best to do so. *Disclaimer* The intent here is somewhat different than SPC severe weather outlooks. The green, yellow, etc. shadings do not directly correlate between SPC and my own outlooks. I'm still getting a feel for these outlooks, but I imagine that in more impressive severe setups, I will use red and orange colors a bit more generously than SPC might. Also, green colors on my maps indicate a marginal severe weather threat, while on SPC it corresponds to a general thunderstorm (not necessarily severe) threat.

The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m. A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat. As a result, a Tornado Watch for a large portion of Pennsylvania and New York state. A tornado touched down near Bainbridge, N.Y. in Chenango County and stayed on the ground for 3.2 miles. The tornado was a strong EF-1 with maximum sustained winds of 110 MPH. Looking back at historical tornado environments in the same general area, the wind shear and helicity values in place on Friday were actually more "severe" than the climatological mean for past tornadoes. The only thing that was lacking was instability, as there was very little in place. Despite this fact, strong, twisting and turning winds aloft combined with an approaching squall line ahead of a cold front resulted in the tornado. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 954 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED FROM 4 SSE BAINBRIDGE IN CHENANGO COUNTY TO 3 S SIDNEY IN DELAWARE COUNTY NEW YORK... UPDATED DATA ON LAT/LON POINTS AND WIDTH. LOCATION... FROM 4 SSE BAINBRIDGE IN CHENANGO COUNTY TO 3 S SIDNEY IN DELAWARE COUNTY NEW YORK DATE...APRIL 19 2013 ESTIMATED TIME...753 PM TO 758 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...110 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...200 YARDS YARDS PATH LENGTH...3.2 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.2481N / 75.4516W ENDING LAT/LON...42.2674N / 75.3939W * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ..SUMMARY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON, NY HAS CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 4 MILES SSE OF BAINBRIDGE IN CHENANGO COUNTY...TRACKED NORTHEAST ABOUT 3.2 MILES...AND THEN ENDED ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF SIDNEY IN DELAWARE COUNTY NEW YORK FROM 753 PM EDT TO 758 PM EDT ON APRIL 19 2013. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BETWEEN INTERSTATE 88 AND HIGHWAY 206...ON EAST AFTON ROAD...WHERE 2 POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED AND A CAR WAS DESTROYED BY A LARGE TREE BRANCH. ANOTHER VEHICLE WAS ALSO DAMAGED. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. A BARN HAD MINOR ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST AND CROSSED HIGHWAY 206...WHERE A FARM EQUIPMENT BUILDING AND A MOBILE HOME WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED...AND A STORAGE TRAILER WAS DESTROYED. OTHER NEARBY HOMES HAD MINOR DAMAGE...AND A CARPORT WAS LIFTED AND MOVED 75 FEETFARTHER DOWN ITS PATH...THE TORNADO INTENSIFIED TO A HIGH END EF1 STRENGTH WHILE TRAVELING IN THE VICINITY OF HOUCK DRIVE. IN THIS AREA IT UPROOTED OR SNAPPED MANY 1 TO 2 FOOT DIAMETER TREES ALONG ITS PATH...BOTH HARDWOODS /MAPLES/ AND SOFTWOODS /PINES/...WITH THE LARGEST MORE THAN 3 FEET WIDE. IT ALSO CAUSED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE AND GARAGE...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEBRIS A HUNDRED YARDS OR MORE. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED INTO DELAWARE COUNTY...DOWNING SEVERAL MORE TREES ON SOME PROPERTIES ALONG HIGHWAY 8 BEFORE DISSIPATING. Here's an SPC archived radar image from 00z, just minutes after the tornado touched down. A noticeable kink can be seen along the squall line near the location of the tornado, along with the approximate track below it: Here are some more storm reports from Friday:

A strong cold front approaches the Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Along that cold front, a squall line with thunderstorms is currently expected is develop. (Marginal threat) Middle Appalachians into Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and interior New York: Daytime heating is expected to push temperatures into the low to mid-70's in the valley locations with mid to upper 60's in the higher elevations. Low and mid-level clouds will likely limit just how unstable the atmosphere can get. As a result, relatively low SBCAPE below 500 J/KG combined with near-zero or marginally negative Lifted Index values are expected. Despite strong winds aloft and effective bulk shear values increasing to 35 to 50kts along a cold front, the lack of instability will likely minimize the threat of severe weather. In addition, dew-points are forecast to stay in the 50's, perhaps coming close to 60° in Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. However, a few isolated strong thunderstorms could develop Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. There is a marginal threat of a few damaging wind gusts associated with a squall line along the cold front Friday afternoon into Friday night. (Low threat) Interior Virginia, east of the Appalachians: The atmosphere is likely to become slightly more unstable further south. SBCAPE values of 500 to 750 J/KG are forecast based off of SREF guidance. Lifted Index values as low as -3 combined with dew-points in the 60's and higher helicity values would support more strong to severe thunderstorm activity. Based off of this, there is a low threat of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail in this area. Some isolated thunderstorm cells are possible Friday afternoon, but locally severe storms could develop along a squall line Friday night as the cold front approaches. There is a marginal threat for an isolated tornado or two, but confidence in this potential is not particularly high at this point. (No appreciable severe weather threat) Connecticut (southern new England), NYC, Long Island and coastal plain of NJ/DE: With more of a marine influence allowing for less daytime heating, there is no appreciable threat of severe weather in these areas. Also, with the cold front not expected to move through until after midnight Friday (into early Saturday), this further implies that the severe weather threat is virtually non-existent. With that said, some locally strong wind gusts are possible as a decaying squall line and associated cold front moves through late Friday night into early Saturday morning. As the spring season goes forward, I will be making more severe weather outlooks. Any feedback is appreciated and I am still working on the outlook/threat scale. I would like to compare forecasts to verification in the future, so some thought will be needed to address just how best to do so. Learning is an ongoing process as I learned a lot about severe weather forecasting last spring/summer and there's still a lot more to cover. Experience also helps!

A strong low pressure system is forecast to move up into the Great Lakes by Thursday and eventually into southeastern Canada late Friday into Saturday. A potent cold front associated with this storm will move towards the Appalachians by the second half of Friday. (For Wednesday and Thursday, severe thunderstorm activity is probable for the Mississippi Valley and portions of the western Ohio River Valley. I see a marginal setup for severe storms from Central N.Y. into the middle Appalachians. Even though a strong shortwave and upper level jet is expected to move into New York state and Pennsylvania, there are several factors which will likely limit the severe threat... With low-level moisture and clouds, daytime heating will not be maximized along the East Coast. Right now, the areas shown in green can expect gradually steepening lapse rates. However, dew-points are only expected to be in the mid-50's to around 60 north of Washington D.C., along with 2-meter temperatures in the mid-60's to lower 70's. eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey could get well into the 70's, but with the front lagging further to the west, there really isn't much of a trigger to kick off any storms in that area. The SREF/NAM/GFS/Euro are actually fairly similar in timing and overall evolution of this storm system. Without much heating, relatively low CAPE values are forecast. The SPC SREF does show a ribbon of slightly negative (0 to -2) Lifted Index values from central Pennsylvania southward. This indicates a marginally unstable atmosphere. As one goes further south into Virginia, the severe weather indices increase, including dew-points into the 60's. This is why that area is outlined in a "low" threat potential. Wind shear values are a bit more supportive for severe weather, but even here, the storm system loses some of its punch as it reaches the Appalachian mountains. Effective bulk shear of 40-45kts is forecast across the region. Some strong winds aloft are expected with the front, but this area of stronger winds lags far enough back to really minimize the severe weather threat. Overall threats... -Damaging wind gusts could be supported anywhere in the green or yellow shadings. -In the yellow shading, there's a very slight risk of hail and isolated tornadoes. -In New England, gusty winds are possible with a band of rain and thunderstorms late Friday night into early Saturday, but damaging winds are not terribly likely. As the spring season goes forward, I will be making more severe weather outlooks. Any feedback is appreciated and I am still working on the outlook/threat scale. I would like to compare forecasts to verification in the future, so some thought will be needed to address just how best to do so. Learning is an ongoing process as I learned a lot about severe weather forecasting last spring/summer and there's still a lot more to cover. Experience also helps!

Here are some maps that I compiled from various sources. Most of the reports came in through the National Weather Service, with a few from this forum and social media reports that passed through quality control. Snowfall amounts were greatest across the higher terrain of Tolland County. This was due to a persistent band of moderate to heavy snow, as well as the altitude as temperatures were marginal through a portion of the event. Totals in the Connecticut River valley and the immediate shoreline were generally lower than surrounding areas. If any amounts you reported conflict with these amounts, please comment back with your total(s). Here is an alternate black and white version of the map:

I don't really expect much snowfall at all tonight. For some continuity and a slight amount of uncertainty, I painted the entire area with 2" or less of snow. Eastern Conn. and northern R.I. have perhaps a 50/50 shot at 1-2": of snow, while the rest of the area has a high probability of receiving less than 1". Temperatures and moisture look very marginal and although some precipitation should back southern sections of southern New England, I don't see it being a big deal. There may be a few slushy roads for the Thursday morning commute. I don't think it's fair to make a total snowfall map for both events. The coastal plain should rise several degrees above freezing during the day on Thursday with most inland areas also cracking 32F. Also, western areas that may see no accumulation at all tonight could easily end up with some of the higher amounts tomorrow night. The snow Thursday night into Friday morning ("Round 2") looks a bit more significant. It gets tricky nailing down enhanced snow along an inverted trough across eastern N.Y. and western New England. At the same time, precipitation closer to a center of low pressure well south of Cape Cod may bring a period of snow to northeastern Conn., northern R.I. and interior eastern Mass. Here, it's a big question mark where totals could verify either low or high. The computer models are having issues nailing down precipitation totals, while some say widespread amounts over 6" could be realized in my eastern 3-6" zone. I don't see it happening, but take that for what it's worth. The confidence for the latter forecast is only moderate, but this will be my last snowfall map for the period. Confidence is higher for the first round.

Just a very brief discussion: Low pressure slowly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A relatively broad storm with possible multiple low centers spin around and pinwheel periods of snow (some rain mixing in at the coastal plain) through the region from Wednesday into Friday. This looks to be an elevation-dependent event, but heavy amounts or precipitation across eastern Mass., eastern Conn. and much of R.I. will help offset some of the "snow losses." In those areas, 1 to perhaps 2" liquid equivalent precipitation could still result in a solid 5-10, perhaps 12" heavy, wet snowfall. The highest risk for 12" would probably be in southern Worcester County. Power outages are a concern, especially in southern and eastern areas. There, the water content will be higher and stronger winds are expected. Forecast confidence is moderate...the shoreline and southeastern Mass. could see an even sharper gradient. The banding nature of snow and timing with respect to day vs. night will be crucial in determining snowfall amounts. The snowfall totals above are cumulative, so a total of 10" may actually result in a snow-depth of 7" (for example) by midday Friday. The computer models are in decent agreement, although the GFS is a lot more conservative than all other guidance. I feel the GFS has had issues with this storm, despite originally bringing it back when the other models were keeping it south. Recall that the GFS backed off on the blizzard the day it started and totals were close to double what it had predicted.

Outside of the hilly terrain across the interior, this snow event does not look like a big deal. I expect 3-6"+ across the east slopes of the Berkshires and much of Worcester County. Connecticut only sees a brief period of rain, with generally 1-3" across the northern hills. The boundary layer temperatures are simply too marginal for much to change, especially with dew-points in the upper 20's as of early Tuesday evening. Downstream observations don't indicate that cold air damming across New England will verify stronger than modeled.

What a challenging forecast and I still think the models have more to resolve, mainly on Sunday with respect to enhancement of snow along a trough. Essentially, a light mixture of rain and snow overspreads the region through later today. Across the lower Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I expect virtually no daytime snow accumulation. Low pressure develops south of the area tonight, but the heaviest precipitation and best lift also stays south. Some snow falls early Sunday morning and a period of light to moderate snow may develop for a good chunk of the second half of the day, especially across northern Massachusetts and central New England. Here, snowfall totals are forecast to finish in the 4 to 8 inch range by 12:00 a.m. Monday. (Could snow possibly linger later? Yes.) We'll see how things continue to change!

I expect mostly snow for just about all of southern New England (pictured on this map). Although there may be a brief mixture along the I-95 corridor in Conn./RI, I expect crashing temperatures and heights to bring a wind-driven snow right down to the coast and into eastern Long Island. As far as snowfall totals go, I think that higher ratios will help push NW Conn. and W Mass. to 20"+. Further east, heavy precipitation will offset somewhat lower ratios for 20"+ from IJD to BOS. There is still some uncertainty with areas further south on this map, such as NYC, BDR, GON...lower ratios and possible mixing don't give me enough confidence to go with higher snowfall amounts. With that said, I could see a scenario where even the Conn. coast gets 20". The Euro is basically a 15-25"+ event region-wide and this model has been outstanding with overall consistency in this forecast. Bands of heavy snow are expected to form and some orographic enhancement may bring this heavy snow right back into the higher terrain of western Conn. and the Berkshires. A snow-shadow effect may limit totals somewhat in the Conn. River Valley, but even there I think totals will come close to 20". Potential exists for 2+ feet, especially across central and eastern Massachusetts. The other story is the strong winds and power outages are a real concern along and SE of I-95. I think drier snow and somewhat lighter winds inland will limit power issues there. What really captures my interest here is that expansive moisture field aloft. Past storms, like Feb. 2006, for example, had a relatively narrow area of moisture. This was able to produce intense banding and 20-30" totals from NYC into W Conn. However, with this storm, the moisture field backs into most of NY and covers just about all of New England. The end result is several bands of heavy snow, perhaps even a "mega" band. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour will be likely for several hours and convection/isolated thunder is possible. Winds may gust to 50 MPH along and NW of I-95, with higher gusts to the east. I think we'll see many stations verify official blizzard conditions and Cape Cod/Islands could see hurricane force wind gusts.

I just want to quickly share my latest thoughts for Connecticut and surrounding areas. There's little doubt that a strong storm with plenty of precipitation will impact the tri-state area and southern New England Friday into early Saturday, but there are still a few details to discuss. Concern #1: Mixing along the shoreline. An initially "warm" boundary layer may cause mixed precipitation to fall near the Connecticut shoreline and coastal Rhode Island for several hours. With that said, as low pressure really intensifies southeast of Cape Cod, winds shift to the north and cold air pours on down. This will suddenly change everyone back to snow, even across eastern Long Island. Concern? Well, right now I have a wide range of 6 to 12 inches in the forecast. I'm leaning on the higher end of those numbers for coastal sections of Conn. and R.I., but there's still some room for change. These numbers could go higher, although I really doubt they'd trend lower... Concern #2: Deformation band of intense snowfall. These bands can be difficult to predict with accuracy and a slight shift could be the difference between 8 inches and 18 inches. With that said, I expect this band to impact the eastern half of Conn., especially areas like Tolland, Union and Woodstock that stay all snow and hang onto precipitation the longest. In that band, I am predicting more than 20 inches of snowfall. Bottom line...heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding are likely. I can see widespread blizzard conditions verifying for IJD, ORH, BOS and surrounding areas. (many areas not included in this map, such as northeastern Mass. and southern N.H.

Generally light snow overspread Connecticut from west to east during the morning on January 28th. Snow continued into the early afternoon and at the same time, warmer air moved in aloft. A change to sleet and freezing rain occurred from southwest to northeast, with portions of the I-95 corridor changing over to plain rain. Precipitation tapered off to intermittent drizzle with freezing drizzle across much of the interior by early evening. Snowfall totals were fairly uniform with most areas picking up 1 to 2 inches. The I-95 to I-395 corridor and points southeast generally received less than 1 inch of snow. A quicker changeover in lower Fairfield County may have also led to slightly lower snowfall amounts. Some of the hilly terrain of northwestern Connecticut picked up a little more than 2 inches of snow. I usually do color contoured maps as well, but I'm not sure it's really necessary for a relatively minor event. If you have any totals to add or ones that don't match up, please let me know. Sources include this forum, the National Weather Service, social media reports, WXedge.com, the Conn. Dept. of Transportation and CoCoRaHS.

I expect light snow to reach the NY/CT and NY/MA border around 9 a.m. or so and then overspread the area from west to east. The heaviest precipitation amounts impact northern Connecticut into central and western Massachusetts. Quick warming at 850mb should push most areas over to sleet and freezing rain. The cold layer aloft up to about 925mb looks deep enough where the inland hills may get a thump of sleet, while the interior coastal plain could see several hours of freezing rain. By late afternoon precipitation tapers off, but freezing drizzle could linger for many inland areas through much of the night. Basically expecting 1-3" of snow and sleet, followed by a glaze of ice for inland areas. Best shot at 3" is across the higher terrain of the Berkshires and Worcester County. Keep in mind that this total accounts for snow AND ice. The only area that is a bit of a question mark is the I-95 corridor (approximately). Will have to keep a close eye on surface temperatures and see how cold air damming is verifying. Right now I think that the immediate coast gets a brief period of snow/sleet/ice and then changes to plain rain. Also, somewhat lighter precipitation amounts here may also result in less of an ability for near-surface temperatures to cool. In a marginal setup, heavier precipitation can help result in more freezing/frozen precipitation.

This isn't really a big event, but due to the amount of discussion it's had, I felt a map was warranted. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes brings an usual push of generally light snow towards the Appalachians. A new area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the mid-Atlantic region, enhancing snowfall amounts ever so slightly around the coastal plain. This map does not show it, but light snow should extend southward into Virginia. I believe that most areas will see an inch or less of snowfall, with interior Mass. seeing little or no snow at all. I'm not even all that confident for 3" amounts, but I added them as a potential outcome for northern Pennsylvania, the outer Cape (Cod) and the Islands of southeastern Massachusetts. The column is fairly cold, from the surface right up through 850mb and 700mb, promoting snow growth and higher than "typical" liquid to snowfall ratios. I could see 15:1 ratios on the shoreline and 20:1 further inland. The end result is a light, fluffy snow that pretty much sticks on contact to most surfaces. Basically, most areas may see up to an inch, with the highest probability of 1"+ amounts occurring along and south of a line from Binghamton to Bridgeport to Groton to Providence to Taunton.

Thanks to some feedback, I cleaned up this map and added a few additional reports. There are still some gaps in Litchfield County, a report of 4.0 inches in Torrington made more sense based off of observations and radar imagery for that area. You can see how the higher amounts were generally confined to the higher terrain, with lower amounts in the Conn. River and Shetucket River valleys. Below is a color, contoured map I put together:

Thanks for the report! I have a few more to add and a few that need to be adjusted due to possible error.

Overall, a decent forecast. There were a few 4"+ reports, with most of them falling across lower Litchfield County and northeastern Conn.  Along the shore, the 2" line ended up being right down to the coast for New Haven and Middlesex Counties.

Should be a nice event for the lower mid-Atlantic region. I wouldn't want to have to forecast for DCA/BWI/ACY as the NW cutoff looks pretty sharp!

The image is comprised of snowfall totals from various sources, some of which include the New England forum on here. Snowfall totals across Connecticut were pretty uniform around 3-4", although slightly lower amounts occurred along I-95 and there were a few isolated amounts around 5". I'll post a contoured color map within the next 12 to 18 hours.

I see this event as a widespread 2-4 incher across most of interior SNE. The tough call comes along I-95 for BOS-PVD-GON, as often is the case. I do think most areas even along the South Shore get a thump of snow/sleet at the beginning. I'm not really all that confident on widespread 4"+ amounts, but I've outlined an area with a black dotted line that could see locally 5-6 inches. I also expect precipitation to quickly shut off in the morning (by 7 or 8 a.m. across much of Connecticut) and taper to drizzle near and SE of I-84 with pockets of "snizzle" or flurries/freezing drizzle across the higher terrain. Connecticut Forecast: On the shoreline...(< 2 inches) Although there may be a period of snow and sleet, temperatures near the ground will likely remain above freezing through most of the event. Combine this with with a changeover to plain rain and areas near the coast should see less than 2 inches of snow/sleet. Inland...(generally 2-4 inches) Most areas should see a period of moderate snow before a changeover to sleet. Precipitation may actually end as a period of drizzle late Wednesday morning, with pockets of freezing drizzle in the hills. Before the changeover, generally 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet is expected. Highest elevations...(locally 4"+) Due to colder air in place, Litchfield County and northern Tolland County may stay near or below freezing throughout the entire event. The end result is NEAR 4 inches of snow with localized totals that could reach perhaps 5 or 6 inches.

Map above is based on reports from various sources, including this board, the National Weather Service and data viewers from across the state sent in. Event Summary: Scattered snow showers reached portions of western Connecticut by late morning on the 29th. This snow was associated with weakening low pressure over Pennsylvania. The main storm began to develop east of Virginia during the afternoon. Steady precipitation overspread the state from southwest to northeast between about 1 and 3 p.m. Most areas saw snow, but some ice pellets and graupel were reported near and southeast of I-95. Coastal New London County even switched to rain for a time. Colder air moved in and a heavy band of snow set up over central and eastern Connecticut. Snowfall rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour hammered portions of New Haven, Middlesex and New London Counties. This area of heavy snow eventually moved northeast and also impacted Tolland and Windham Counties. This band was a bit more intense than some predictions, resulting in higher snowfall amounts than forecast. Extreme western Connecticut was too far west to be affected by this heavy snow. The heaviest snow fell between about 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. before the shield of precipitation began to break apart. After midnight, the only leftover precipitation was occasional snow showers. By then, the bulk of the accumulation was over. I still find the Feb. 7, 2003 analog to be quite good for this event, with respect to Connecticut. It's clear that with a warmer solution, southeastern Mass. could not have had such high snowfall amounts. Shift the axis about 75 miles SW and you get a VERY good match-up. This analog showed up as a strong match about 2-3 days before the event: The point was that interior eastern Conn. and NW R.I. was favored for the highest amounts. Forecasts for the storm were decent within 24 hours of the event, but before that, most were playing catch-up. What was expected to be a minor event turned into a moderate one with several snowfall totals in the 10-12 inch range, especially across eastern Connecticut. My own forecast (from 5 p.m. the night before the storm) was too high for areas SW of Conn. and was generous as well for eastern Mass. With that said, I could have also pushed the 6-10" zone back further west: The image below shows approximate snowfall totals from across the region: Heavy snow focused in on the eastern half of Connecticut and the radar image below shows moderate to heavy precipitation pounding southern portions of the state. At the same time, some observed 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour for a few hours.

almost everyone in my graduating class (only like 8 or 9 albeit) averaged C and Ds in almost all of the 200+ level Calculus and Meteorology courses. Not that I did much better, but...lol