Quincy

The focus has shifted earlier, but perhaps not enough for a big day on Monday. Although the evening looks interesting, the best environment seems to occur overnight across eastern Texas. It's the 06z-12z time-frame that instability is maximized, as the low-level jet really cranks and mid-level lapse rates steepen. Speed this up a bit and it could be really interesting. Tuesday looks messy, although I could see a potent squall line early in the day with embedded tornadoes.

12z model suite continues a strong signal for the lower Mississippi Valley and surrounding subforums to the east. Too soon for details, but this easily looks more impressive than what's going on today.

The GFS/Euro show another dynamic system in the Plains about a week from now. Not quite as impressive as this current system and a bit further south, but worth watching later forecasts and trends.

Based on the GFS/Euro (12z), certainly have to agree with this. The Euro actually shows the best instability in the east-central Plains at 12z on Wed, lessening with time with movement into Iowa and Missouri. Likewise, the GFS forecast soundings for eastern Missouri and southeastern Iowa are not as impressive as further west/earlier.

Eyes on the lower Missouri Valley tomorrow, but will have to check back in the morning to see how things are evolving. No signal at this point to believe anything other than another 2015 underperforming setup.

I've been casually watching Sunday across the north-central states. A lot can change and there has been some model adjusting, but keeping an eye on a vigorous shortwave forecast to eject across the northern Plains Sunday into early Monday. There may be somewhat of a disconnect between the best forcing, strongest wind fields and the warm sector, but details can be ironed out in the coming days. Based on model indications now, I'd peg the focus on the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest as an area to keep an eye on. Nothing significant and not outbreak-material, but the way this year has gone, at least it's something on the radar. I wonder how this fall will shape up, if it may try to pull a 2013 or keep the trend of generally lackluster severe threats. I'd tend to lean toward the latter.

One of the biggest flops of the year, I'd say. I don't think the models handled it all that badly. The HRRR was pretty much onboard with storms merging into a massive line fairly quickly. The parameters weren't off the charts either, so I'm not sure a 10% tornado threat over such a large area was warranted. Only two severe reports, period, north of Omaha. One in Minnesota and one in North Dakota. A prime example of #2015ing.

Mid-level lapse rates are just awful tomorrow. One of several mitigating factors. I do think that eastern Kansas to perhaps far southeastern Nebraska has a conditional risk for something interesting, severe-wise. The NAM is trying to keep the low-levels a bit backed, which would be more favorable than the typical cold frontal passage. Even with that said, storm mode and convection evolution looks rather messy across the board.

Nice looking supercell (tornado warned) in far northwestern Minnesota. There were several reports earlier of baseball sized hail, including a 3" hail report out of Roseau, MN.

SPC going with higher confidence today is a potential tornado threat across South Dakota and adjacent Nebraska. Although instability and moisture return will not be nearly as favorable as yesterday, the overall timing with respect to peak heating and coverage of convective initiation should result in several strong to severe thunderstorms. Forcing will be more focused with water vapor imagery showing a shortwave through moving east through Montana. Mid level temperatures are cooler, so capping is not a concern. Convection allowing model solutions include thunderstorms developing by midday to early afternoon. Combine the aforementioned setup with a weak surface low lingering across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska and the locally backed flow could support a few tornadoes. HRRR has fluctuated a bit with respect to exact placement, however it has consistently showed convective initiation across South Dakota with at least a few more robust looking semi-discrete storms on the southern flank of the activity. ...SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S F EXTENDS NWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF SD AND NEB. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH SUBSEQUENT POCKETS OF STRONGER ADIABATIC HEATING AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SD WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS /35-45 KT AT 500 MB/ COUPLED WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME AS THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO A MORE NWLY COMPONENT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NWRN IA BY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND AIR MASS STABILIZATION.

Tornado touched down right around 9:00 just east of Elk Creek. I had a visual on it by 9:01 (wooded area). Began roping out and lifted at 9:11 p.m. 8 SE Elk Creek.