Quincy

Nothing stands out in the next 10 days. That's not to say you can't get a mesoscale event or two, or perhaps some change in the pattern, otherwise it looks like a relatively quiet mid-April stretch.

Those cells look to be east of the instability axis and are moving into a region with considerable CINH. Some cu is spitting off the dryline in western OK, but even there, at least some capping is holding on.

The lack of more turning with height seems to be the biggest red flag. Steep lapse rates are there and both the EC and NAM erode the cap by 00z. EC also favors a discrete storm mode as well. Although moisture is better than some recent events, the EC favors near 60F dews, as opposed to the more bullish NAM. This, along with veered flow/largely unidirectional wind fields aloft points toward a marginal tornado threat at best. Mixed signals here, but a lower end severe (mainly hail) event seems most reasonable, unless things trend in another direction soon. Not unusual at all for early April, but not particularly impressive either.

It's still a long way out, but have to wonder if Thursday may feature an early season west-of-I-35 threat from the Texas panhandle into the central Plains. Wind fields strengthen ahead of a trough ejecting east from the Desert Southwest. Even the Euro shows an area of mid to upper 50s dews with convective precip ahead of a dryline. The quality of moisture return appears to be the biggest question at this stage. Friday seems like the best threat day at this point, especially if models slow down a bit more as they already have over the past few days.

It's still early in the season. It's not particularly common for events in the Plains or Ohio Valley through about mid-March, aside from outlier outbreaks. Limited moisture is a glaring issue, unless you get a string of anomalously strong surface lows diving north into the Upper Midwest. The early signs have been encouraging at the least. While we may quiet down a bit upon finishing up February, I am looking ahead in a cautiously optimistic manner. About two months into the year, we've seen the most early season tornadoes since 2008. Even if we flatline for the next two weeks, we'll still be above climo, year-to-date.