@Mount Joy Snowman, the radar estimated chart shows some areas of Lanco surp5ssing 6" in the last 72 hours if my screen is interpreting the colors correctly. Near Gap.
@Cashtown_Coop, been a pretty steady strat like ran all morning over here...looks like you had similar for a period. We are over 2" now since it started yesterday.
It's rain induced but you never break 70 next weekend if I saw right when scanning by. Only one day out of the next 10 above 80 at MDT for that long, cool period.
It was just one run of the nam. A good old fashioned namming. Next run you had less than an 1" as the main area moved a bit south. But for posterity's sake:
All we can do is look at where that low goes (how close). Not sure you get a ton of rain unless all the models are wrong. Is that why you mentioned low humidity? LOL. To set up no rain :-)?
How is this for a stat. On today's 12Z GFS, MDT does not hit 80 (after today) on any map, including all 18Z panels, until June 24th! A two week punt of above average temps.
There are showers ripping around that Upper Low. If any faster paced rain developed in NY, especially in a storm situation with strong downdrafts, there could graupel as soundings show it below freezing below 800MB. How much for Albany?
Next week is shaping up to be great temp and Dp wise. A little brrrr one night. High DP's flushed out Sunday night. MDT very close to breaking two daily min records based on this GFS run. June 16 and 17.