Bubbler86

All snow forecasts from the BWS (Bubbler Weather Service) are subject to update!

I was doubting my digital but I have a old fashioned bulb that is under a deep overhang and it is almost at 40 as well.

Yea, at 800 feet it can really change the playing field both good and bad. 10 miles to my south it is 35 at HGR. I had a 2" snowpack this AM and it is 80% gone.

Its already 39 here. Still overcast just so far south. LOL.

I am going to go with some screen names that popped in my head (snow only...sleet and ice are separate) Mag-8-10" Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic and Sauss-2-4" Bubbler, Cashtown, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx-1-3" Voyager-4-6" wmsptwx-10-12" 2001KX-12-16"

Here is a site where you can look at the panels. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

Yes but non of the post Sunday precip would be snow for PA. All of this is from the weekend.

I guess I have an affinity to track one that looked bad but surprised us. :-)

Reaching for straws the CMC is not nearly as warm as some other guidance. Much more of a classic distribution to the mix line.

This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in.

Well hopefully I am not offending too many people with my short bursts of model discussion. We are within 24-36 hours now. I had a week where I was at my computer a lot so have been having fun with it and trying to keep even keeled through our little to no snow runs, like now, and the more excitable runs.

0z Euro had a coastal snowstorm for us late week. That early week system is already a non factor it seems.

Yep, unless we get some movement in that LP position this is quickly turning into a non event for us. Still a little time left but would be a terrible bust for the models at this point. As Nut had been adamant about we really just need that lead Vort to stay 50 miles further south than progged. Fingers crossed. LOL.

If the Euro holds its ground they may cancel the WSW. I am a huge believer in Cad but you need something pushing the air down the east side of the slopes for it to be a factor and not seeing a lot of cad signatures in the thermal parts of the maps. Again if we currently had arctic air over us it would be one thing but it is going to be 40 today and above freezing again tomorrow before the precip starts. Just not a signal for a real ice storm unless the afternoon runs are wrong and our wind direction can be changed more quickly by the low, whether on surface or transfer, being deflected more south.

GFS is a 2-4" for LSV and then warm at the surface. 35-40

12Z Rgem is still shorts weather. If you want to see the snow map take a look at a gif of a white painted wall. Well not exactly but just 2-3" for most LSV before it is all washed away with temps in the 40's and 50's.

Icon snow fall map really questions whether this is anything other than a SECS state wide. Probably underdone.

I concur with the story behind these maps. What the models are showing right now is not a snow storm for the LSV. A few inches, transition to sleet then a "warm" freezing rain where it may be 32 but the rain is falling so fast it is not cause as much damage as if it were 25.

Wow, icon with amazing consistency. Even with a trend gif you can hardly tell the LP is at a different place between 6z and 12z. Going to be front end thump then slop.

Icon is the same through 24 though Daxx has probably already seen it if he is here.

Maybe the laid off IRS people are doing weather forecasts. We will all owe snow if that is true.

At least the first 12Z model did not ruin the fun of watching the others :-). And on this point, the Nam has not really changed at a lot since it got within 84 hours. The GFS and Euro have jumped much more.

Definitely not. If it stays cloudy and only gets to 33 or 34 the roads will be better but we still keep our pack!

Yes, for a good 6-10 hours though you never know how CAD will play into that. We need that first impulse to not get so far north and drag its ugly warm temps with it.

Its eventually goes with the southern vort taking it off the SE VA coast but like so many other runs the damage has already been done for our temps by that point. Snow map looks great but Kuchera will not look nearly as good.