Bubbler86

Also as mag alluded to we dry slot quickly tonight which will hopefully cut down on the rain. Ain't nobody got time for rain.

Latest hrrr has lowered the dp's a little....good trend for front end thump of a few inches.

38 and drizzle in Waynesboro

Heading out and just noticed it is raining a bit here with a few flakes mixed in.

Well, I am not here to be a winner or a loser. This is a weather discussion board. I am not trying to bring you to the ledge. Sorry if you have taken my posts as anything other than synoptic discussion.

I am just discussing the weather this AM. I do think I went too high on my forecast yesterday even for Mag and 2001.

Yea, lets hope the front end thump really comes down! One thing is that it should be large flakes and that is always fun!

It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight. I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable. We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen. A bit depressing.

Short range model wise the HRRR shows the LSV getting up to 40 then a rain/snow mix arrives driving down temps to 33-34. We get an hour or two of snow before 850's go above freezing then several hours of sleet before changing over to rain. Precip arrives 4-5PM. Unfortunately it shows no snow accum's south of I81 and 1-3" (probably on the grass on)the North/W side of the Valley. The rain snow line gets up to the PA/NY border later tonight. Pretty much in line with NWS's point and click's that I looked at except they are too high on the snow accums.

I think a lot of the LSV sees quite a bit of sleet as it is quite cold in some of the upper columns(as Mag posted last night). Temps seem to be progged to stay between 32 and 35 so not a huge freezing rain signal.

I fear iI am going to bust too high on my accums. I knew we did not have the Arctic air and talked myself into thinking otherwise. It is 35 here with a dp of 32 right now.

Ahh, I am getting old. I remember Scott Simard being the one who was sure it was going to happen and he was right.

I believe it was Dec. 30th 2000 that we were under a WSW for a foot and not only did it not snow there were hardly any clouds. Not rain though. That storm equaled out the Jan 5th 2000 Miracle Blizzard where we got over a foot and had little to no snow forecast. That one is an Eastern US WX Legend as weenies nowcasted their way into a blizzard.

He is and that is the bad part...thermals up the column are important and heavy snow can bring down cold air but we are not getting a major snow or ice storm with DP's around 30 and a southerly wind. Need something to import cold air in.

I think most of that is sleet and freezing rain. Here is the snow gains map. Really cuts back all of PA.

Yea not much encouraging going on right now. We are going to need an overzealous/under modeled high to come to our rescue.

LSV has changed to ice or rain by this point so this is close to actual snow totals there.

NAM is an LSV ice storm as it continues to have trouble with the SLP location. Not exactly confidence inspiring as it flashes between different points of low pressure from panel to panel.

I almost have to think they are progged too high but wanted someones opinion as the HRRR was not around when I lived in PA before and have really only used it for radar up to this point. Its a very popular model in Florida for convection use.

To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR. Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable. Hopefully not.

I would be in if not for the Busch

That is just too cold. Dangerous for humans and animals alike.

Looks like MDT broke into the upper 30's today. That could be 30-35 degrees warmer than this time Monday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011818&fh=30

Stuff I find interesting... 18Z RGEM, at 7AM Sunday, has two distinct areas of lower pressure right beside each other. One over Lancaster and one on the border of PA and Central NJ. Stuff like this makes forecasting this situation almost impossible. In the image below the area over Lancaster is just a circle while in the next frame it becomes the lower pressured of the two areas and the low appears to jump back 50-100 miles.