Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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LSV has changed to ice or rain by this point so this is close to actual snow totals there.
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NAM is an LSV ice storm as it continues to have trouble with the SLP location. Not exactly confidence inspiring as it flashes between different points of low pressure from panel to panel.
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I almost have to think they are progged too high but wanted someones opinion as the HRRR was not around when I lived in PA before and have really only used it for radar up to this point. Its a very popular model in Florida for convection use.
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To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR. Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable. Hopefully not.
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I would be in if not for the Busch
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That is just too cold. Dangerous for humans and animals alike.
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Looks like MDT broke into the upper 30's today. That could be 30-35 degrees warmer than this time Monday.
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011818&fh=30
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Stuff I find interesting... 18Z RGEM, at 7AM Sunday, has two distinct areas of lower pressure right beside each other. One over Lancaster and one on the border of PA and Central NJ. Stuff like this makes forecasting this situation almost impossible. In the image below the area over Lancaster is just a circle while in the next frame it becomes the lower pressured of the two areas and the low appears to jump back 50-100 miles.
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So not familiar with GTG. Rgem was quite a bit south and more snow for Northern LSV.
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That is a good reminder about those "on hour" model runs. The HRR is not jiving with the UK and Euro. Much more Nam looking.
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Its been a fun week. No big work issues on my side makes this doable sometimes. So what do you sell?
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Wait until the 18Z Rgem comes out and go up to the NY forum and let them know we have arbitrarily decided to toss it.
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Just a little leery of the way it is changing focus on low centers seemingly each panel. 29 is in Eastern KY, 30 goes backwards to Central KY, 31, back to East, 32 goes to Southern KY, 36 goes to Northern WV, 39 goes due South to VA (it transferred). Seems it is having issues and I am a Nam Fan so hurts to say it.
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It starts south but surprisingly jumps toward the Maxon Dixon later on.
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I am going to get enough flak for it here but the WRF is still a decent short analysis tool. Probably a step below the HRRR. Seriously just looking for support for CTP's call.
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Eye candy. LOL.
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I have been one of those no block guys but I believe we get a whopper of a storm as long as the low does not come up to near Pitt on a North Easterly Trajectory. If the minimal blocking/cold dome is enough to persuade it east then CTP is going to be very right. If it makes it up near Pitt then I think the LSV is rain eventually.
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If the Wrf's are to be believed, the Nam is going to hold ground with a colder solution.
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One of the WRF's just flipped over to 12Z. Whaaaa....12-18" area wide. Jackpots Cashtown. LOL Not kidding.
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The Meso WRF model's are much colder than the Global models at this point. They only go to 48 on TT but really give credence to the High being more assertive in draining CAD down the valleys east of the mountains. Still they do not support big snow totals...at least not up to a foot in MDT. These are also from 0Z. Trying to find some support for these snow totals on the Warning. Notice position of the Low at 7PM tomorrow:
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They have eaten it on so many this one is not going to make a difference. Hey at least it excites the natives and sells bread.
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One thing I find interesting about this is I have never seen CTP ignore the GFS to this level. Bravo to them for whatever they see. They are the Pro's.
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They just Issued Winter Storm Warnings for Central and N Maryland. They are are really hitting the micro forecasting hard. Quite interesting. The wording says "Travel may be nearly impossible" Just wow.
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They just upgraded Watch to a Warning. A Weak one if you ask me. 6-10"? LOL. I hope.
