Bubbler86
-
Posts
29,721 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bubbler86
-
I would have less issue with it if the qpf totals were not broad-brushed on what is supposed to be a decent resolution 12K Nam. I would realize that the popcorn nature of the qpf output would be very suspect but that is better than the blob of precip it has shown too often the last few days.
-
I would assume it is specific forecast zones vs using county boundaries. RE: Parts of Franklin, Adams and Chester counties are in the LSV while parts are not.
-
This was enlightening as I did not realize there was a confidence factor in it though as you alluded to there are only so many ways to get to a given percentage. A forecast could be 30% confident that 100% of the area sees .01 or more but that still comes down to 30%. 100% confident that 40% of the area sees .01? Only 40%.
-
Here is the official explanation which sounds similar to yours though they go about explaining it in a convoluted way in my opinion. But what it does do is make the 60% chances over the last two days look even worse as to a forecast. It would take some pretty high confidence and coverage to get to 60%. A better forecast maybe should have been 80% confidence and 30% coverage or 25%. https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf
-
ECs has what looks like a fairly energetic line of storms come through the LSV Sunday afternoon. A front dangling down from a SLP passing by to the north triggers it.
-
You may be right and I may have simpled it down but some people take the percentages more literally in that if the 40 happens, no one should see rain, if the 60 happens then everyone. I know that is nonsense but it is how some read their local forecast.
-
So would I. 1/2 to 1" is fine to blunt this a bit.
-
-
12Z EC still pretty gung ho though Friday further south. In defense of this it is suggesting over 1/2 of the qpf would be from a disturbance that slides under PA and sort of dies out to our S/W. So not all pop up broad-brushing.
-
And my understanding of their percentage process is that if they give a percent it means they expect that percent of the given area to see the suggested weather (vs a 60% chance they are right and 40% chance nothing happens). But as @Cashtown_Coop alluded to, there is no way 60% of the LSV has seen rain any day this week so far. Land area wise I would say that maybe it was 20-30% on Mon or Tue.
-
@paweather is the summer @Blizzard of 93
-
@TimB84 is owed a lot of credit for helping. I told you those Pitt people are as nice as they come. LOL
-
I enjoy hashing out the details but over he last few days the lack of accountability is starting to wear on me. If the NAM and GFS can only interpret scattered pop up cells like Oprah giving out rain to everyone (You get rain, and you get rain, and you get rain) I cannot use their outputs to even discuss. Do not remember it being this bad in the past but I usually do not have time to post this much in the summer.
-
Yea, I have spent 3 days watching areas of York and Lancaster county live it up.
-
Just a "tad" less than the EC flood. Models still focus near Mason Dixon so that means Lewistown will score the big rain.
-
Friday may feature the ever popular midnight high temp at MDT.
-
Instead of wasting my time pouring over incorrect 12Z models I thought I would shop for a shirt.
-
You are our live emergency scanner :-)
-
A quick 14" of rain could have been! LOL. I chuckled when I saw that and it still makes me chuckle now.
-
I am one of the board typo leaders. In my case I just lack patience for proof reading. Type and send!
-
They must have a bang up mower repair business around there. In some of our areas, the mowers can almost go away as the summer wears on.
-
A drawing of winners and losers so far this week. Has the Shrewsbury flood plain clearly visible over the 83 marker.
-
Between June 25 and Aug 10, the daily high max at MDT has been 100 or over 30 of the 47 days so not at all uncommon. Some of those were same year/multi-day events but I am sure there are other days where it has hit 100 more than once on that day in the past. I bet someone has exact stats but would say its not at all a "rare" event.
-
And its relative. No 90's just a bit above average.
-
That scenario is a big indicator of some kind of change that has happened to our patterns. It keeps happening over and over, year after year.
