Bubbler86

I am learning my micro climate here and this is a good lesson. Not sure I have many ice storms being on this side of the mountain. Watching the HRRR I saw it only giving me 1-2" and holding your area as snow longer and it did a good job with the call.

Great depiction of the line. It is punching up west of South Mountain.

I think that was about an hour or so ago. I am only 1/2 mile from the MD line and only about 15-20 miles north of 70 so it was close to me back then. You have the better spot for this one. Radar makes it appear the sleet line is indeed just to my south.

Have about a 75% Snow/25% sleet mix here Coming down very hard. These change over lines really dump snow and it adds up fast. About 2" here now.

Yea, its forecast of pushing the low into Erie is going to be more right than wrong if the low does indeed cut through Central PA and over Scranton.

1/2 inch on non road surfaces...roads getting a little white tint to them. 32/29 with SN+

The ICON is actually a decent model. It ended up being too cold in runs early this week but it was one of first to signal at least part of this day would be snowy when most other LR guidance was rain.

That blossoming area to your southwest has laid down about 1/4" on the decks and grass here. Still above 32 so roads just wet.

Just had a wind gust of 31 here. Quick heavy snow burst but tailed off now.

Most agreed except that everyone keeps saying that DP's are not the issue but if it is not below freezing at the surface it can snow forever and is just going to melt on the roads except in the heaviest bands...that is why I keep referencing DP's. Most of the LSV has not had 5" or more on Kuchera for a day or two but we were progged to get so much sleet that the WSW might have worked out. HRRR is progging much lower qpf's all together now and that probably played into it. HRRR delayed the arrival of heavy snow to 5-7PM almost 12 hours ago so if that had dropped it this AM it would have seemingly made more sense but not a big deal either way.

They just dropped the warnings for LSV. Surprising this late. If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours. Dp's are below forecasted.

Hopefully David Dunn wins.

CTP PTC forecasts were a 2-4 inches higher in Central Dauphin and Lebanon counties vs. Cumberland + Perry but Carlisle is sitting pretty right now. I believe he said he was weest of town close to the ridges?

LSV wise I think you are in the best position. Both north and west. If you get the rates you may be the jackpot today. I think I over did it on my calls for western pa but my 2 to 4 for you might not be enough!

Also as mag alluded to we dry slot quickly tonight which will hopefully cut down on the rain. Ain't nobody got time for rain.

Latest hrrr has lowered the dp's a little....good trend for front end thump of a few inches.

38 and drizzle in Waynesboro

Heading out and just noticed it is raining a bit here with a few flakes mixed in.

Well, I am not here to be a winner or a loser. This is a weather discussion board. I am not trying to bring you to the ledge. Sorry if you have taken my posts as anything other than synoptic discussion.

I am just discussing the weather this AM. I do think I went too high on my forecast yesterday even for Mag and 2001.

Yea, lets hope the front end thump really comes down! One thing is that it should be large flakes and that is always fun!

It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight. I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable. We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen. A bit depressing.

Short range model wise the HRRR shows the LSV getting up to 40 then a rain/snow mix arrives driving down temps to 33-34. We get an hour or two of snow before 850's go above freezing then several hours of sleet before changing over to rain. Precip arrives 4-5PM. Unfortunately it shows no snow accum's south of I81 and 1-3" (probably on the grass on)the North/W side of the Valley. The rain snow line gets up to the PA/NY border later tonight. Pretty much in line with NWS's point and click's that I looked at except they are too high on the snow accums.

I think a lot of the LSV sees quite a bit of sleet as it is quite cold in some of the upper columns(as Mag posted last night). Temps seem to be progged to stay between 32 and 35 so not a huge freezing rain signal.