Bubbler86

15 with steady light snow...roads are becoming covered but snow blows away on faster paced roads.

Mecs next weekend on the GFS and I believe the Euro gave us a high mecs or low Hecs. Way too far out but next weekend seems to have some potential for fun tracking.

One reason I have been calling for higher ratios is this exact point...cold air will be retreating, at 850, when the precip arrives or shortly there after. CTP is actually throwing around 25-1 ratios. 850 temps will be in the upper teens and low 20's if I saw the prog correct.

That is terrible...and yes it is dangerous. No kids or pets should be up there.

I went up there last week and it was like a war zone at about 1500 feet as icicles were falling off the trees. I cannot stand the cold like Eskimo is suggesting though. More of a summer time stop for us. Great view of Whitetail after dark.

And remember Blizz, those maps are 10-1 ratio. If someone wants to counterpoint with virga and such that is a valid concern but those totals would be 1.5 to 2X higher with a 20-1. HRRR is also juiced all of a sudden.

Yea and if anything a bit underdone especially N MD and PA. Some good 2-4" totals near the Mason-Dixon with that map.

Nam'ed at the shore.

Probably time for CTP to extend those WWA's east.

Really I think 1/2" would still be treacherous tomorrow. The GFS has lollipops of .05-.1 qpf totals in your neck of the woods...the Mesos do not so it could go either way. You get .05 of qpf fallen (not evap) you will break 1" tomorrow unless it is snizzle spread out of 6 hours. LOL. Edit-My apologies. You are one county further north west that I was thinking. My geography failed me. This AM I thought you would get over an inch but not with the trend today.

Thanks. I like that terminology...the wave fades. I have never used that but it sounds goods. Downsloping is certainly a concern I had when making those predictions but if the wave can stay somewhat near the Mason Dixon I was thinking the support will be there to still push between .05 and .1" of qpf up toward areas near and maybe slightly north of MDT.

WWA's issued for Adams and Franklin but they skipped around MAG for some reason. Watching the trends on the models today I feel the northward extent of the 2-3" snow is going to be pulled back a bit vs. what it appeared this morning but still going for a slight over performer with high ratios and lots of issues with roads...final call :-). Mag, Bubbler, Cashtown- 3-4" Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Carlisle-1-2" closer to 2. 2001KX, Canderson, Atomic, Sauss- 1-2" closer to 1. Voyager, Wmsptwx-Trace Edited to correct Voyager forecast. 5:00PM

HRRR shows 6-7AM up our way.

Haha. I am going out on the limb by an inch and if I see 18Z runs dry up at all I am going to adjust but my thought is a similar trajectory to the qpf as shown below and remembering we are getting at least 20-1 ratios maybe even close to 25-1. I may have to remove MDT from the 2-3" if the 12Z trend continues to move the focus to Southern PA and N MD. Hopefully NWS at least goes 1-2 for the Western Side of the LSV to keep awareness up.

Most of the model snow maps are 10-1 ratio so double up buttercups.

It all started with the 8-12" forecast.

HRRR has it coming in around 6-7AM. If it is juiced that is going to be the problem for schools. Not going to be a big intensity storm at any point but going to accumulate on the roads right away.

KLNS at -3 right now.

First Call Friday storm...could feature schools being closed a second day in a row (most schools in Franklin County are closed today). Mag, Bubbler, Cashtown- 3-4" Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Sauss- 2-3" Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, 2001KX, Voyager- 1-2" Wmsptwx-Trace to 1"

-2 here.

Ditto for us here....just hit zero.

It has definitely been a month with a wintery feel to it. No big snows but several small to moderate. It's too bad Friday storm could not be one with more atmospheric upwelling as catching a PV retreating is the perfect time to get the best of both worlds with moisture and temp.

I hope you and MDT make it...more historic if MDT makes it.

Down to +4 here right now.

I see you guys mentioning the coastal influence or high qpf near the shore...the UK posted earlier also had similar look.