Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Having a disturbance around should help us. The next two days are when they should be/should have been gung ho.
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Mets would be facing death threats
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The Susquehanna is definitely a storm magnet. Storms come charging in and sometimes stop and move due south to keep over the water.
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York had more rain today than some of us have had in 3-4 weeks.
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You can join me in waving at the copious amounts of rain as it passes us by and goes over Shrewsbury again. There used to be a hobby store in the Stewartstown/Shrewsbury area that I sold stuff to and always thought "This place is really isolated" but did not realize they were the Amazon rain forecast of York county. LOL. Your 2021 QPF total is off right (on your signature)? Things have been lean the last 30 days but not too bad before that. LOL
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I would pay for an inch of rain at this point. We are on the verge of going into significant deficit territory again (month to month). So I approve of your message.
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@MAG5035 @kerplunk
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Taking a look at the far out view would make one thing its a super rainy through much of the eastern 1/3 of the country. Yellows and reds all over the place.
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Yea, not expecting perfection. Some of it is forecasting ability and using other forecasted obs to know what has happened in the past that models have missed.
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I would have less issue with it if the qpf totals were not broad-brushed on what is supposed to be a decent resolution 12K Nam. I would realize that the popcorn nature of the qpf output would be very suspect but that is better than the blob of precip it has shown too often the last few days.
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I would assume it is specific forecast zones vs using county boundaries. RE: Parts of Franklin, Adams and Chester counties are in the LSV while parts are not.
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This was enlightening as I did not realize there was a confidence factor in it though as you alluded to there are only so many ways to get to a given percentage. A forecast could be 30% confident that 100% of the area sees .01 or more but that still comes down to 30%. 100% confident that 40% of the area sees .01? Only 40%.
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Here is the official explanation which sounds similar to yours though they go about explaining it in a convoluted way in my opinion. But what it does do is make the 60% chances over the last two days look even worse as to a forecast. It would take some pretty high confidence and coverage to get to 60%. A better forecast maybe should have been 80% confidence and 30% coverage or 25%. https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf
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ECs has what looks like a fairly energetic line of storms come through the LSV Sunday afternoon. A front dangling down from a SLP passing by to the north triggers it.
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You may be right and I may have simpled it down but some people take the percentages more literally in that if the 40 happens, no one should see rain, if the 60 happens then everyone. I know that is nonsense but it is how some read their local forecast.
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So would I. 1/2 to 1" is fine to blunt this a bit.
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12Z EC still pretty gung ho though Friday further south. In defense of this it is suggesting over 1/2 of the qpf would be from a disturbance that slides under PA and sort of dies out to our S/W. So not all pop up broad-brushing.
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And my understanding of their percentage process is that if they give a percent it means they expect that percent of the given area to see the suggested weather (vs a 60% chance they are right and 40% chance nothing happens). But as @Cashtown_Coop alluded to, there is no way 60% of the LSV has seen rain any day this week so far. Land area wise I would say that maybe it was 20-30% on Mon or Tue.
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@paweather is the summer @Blizzard of 93
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@TimB84 is owed a lot of credit for helping. I told you those Pitt people are as nice as they come. LOL
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I enjoy hashing out the details but over he last few days the lack of accountability is starting to wear on me. If the NAM and GFS can only interpret scattered pop up cells like Oprah giving out rain to everyone (You get rain, and you get rain, and you get rain) I cannot use their outputs to even discuss. Do not remember it being this bad in the past but I usually do not have time to post this much in the summer.
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Yea, I have spent 3 days watching areas of York and Lancaster county live it up.
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Just a "tad" less than the EC flood. Models still focus near Mason Dixon so that means Lewistown will score the big rain.
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Friday may feature the ever popular midnight high temp at MDT.
