Bubbler86

If MDT finishes below normal with the pattern being shown in the mid term models (no more 10-15 days out, we should be seeing threats in the 5-10 day frame) then it will be a spectacular fail by these same models. MDT should be getting at least 10 more inches over the second half of the month if just 1 or 2 of the Choo Choo Train of storms works out.

It is too humid. Was especially bad on Sunday if you were here then. The best thing for me, when I come back to Florida, is Sweet Tomatoes restaurant but otherwise I agree with you.

Funny, I was in Orlando yesterday. In Ocala today.

Mecs or bust.

I have pretty much stopped looking at the FV3. I guess if all else shows bad I will look at it for any clue of a different outcome. You mentioned storm path and amde me think of an off shoot thought that any of the models I look at I do view the 500MB maps and do some extrapolating to try and figure out what the model is trying to predict but not as much as you do or or the MA LR/500MB map discussion thread. There is a definitely a science to it and trying to match 500MB profiles with actual surface results is a valid forecast method but I think too much time is wasted in that field and in reading AFD's you do not see mention of it as much any more.

Hard to trust those post front/extra wave snows but it worked out pretty well a week or two ago (if you mean early weekend). The whole GFS run is snow after snow :-).

I have been wavering in my opinion of using the HRRR for accumulations/qpf. It literally seems to change every hour. Temp's have been ok as have location of features, within 18 hours, but it seems to pop up areas of heavy precip that do not materialize sometimes. This was my first winter really using it and I am a bit disappointed with that aspect of it. It does a great job during hurricane season. I do want to add that big picture I think the Nam has done well this storm. Not enough time to break it out but just the orientation of the snow, frozen, rain line right now. GFS did pretty well the last few days as well. As usual the UK was terrible when it came to snow accumulations.

Welcome!

Right into the bubbler screw zone. I should have thought about cad before I bought this house.

In their defense a lot of modeling has had that bullseye about where they show it on their map...

I have not had an update from my wife in about an hour and 1/2 but think Rouzerville is around 3" right now.

Daxx has posted several times in the last week....just last night I believe....but have not seen Itstrainingtime in a long time.

I was thinking you guys were assuming that at this point. Just some light showers or drizzle. Maybe not all snow but going to be a crippling blow.

I posted the final snow fall map vs. the accumulated snow...trying to weed out any sleet On my second sentence was saying that everyone loses 500MB and the lower part of the LSV actually go above freezing at 850. Your snow map is fairly similar to the one I posted...just 1-2" discrepancies except maybe that one 10. accum on yours.

GFS holds the column past 12Z but gives it up sometime in the next 3 hours. 500's again for everyone and 850's for lower part of the LSV. Using the Pivotal Snow Cover maps shows a nice appreciable dump in the center of the state.

I was still on the 3K so looked and at 12Z Tuesday the 540 Line is well up into PA and much of S/W 2/3rd of the state is over freezing at 500

3K had a similar look but much less in the totals department but I have seen the 3K come up way to short on qpf totals so I personally do not trust it for that vs. trends. I agree the 12K/old Nam is overdone on totals but the time period of non snow is the same between both. 12 hours of moderate to heavy ice was the main take away and that is a lot. I am staying up to see what Goofus has to say.

With that much sleet you would have to forgo building a Snow Man and chose to go with a Sleet Stack instead.

0Z Nam really gung ho on freezing rain. Not sure I believe this but not a map you see every day. Some of this has to be sleet. General 3-6" snow and then 12-15 hours of ice!

Welcome! We are just a tad more welcoming here than the forum south of us :-).

Interesting. My July comment was obviously a joke but it we were to get a true HECS with cold temps afterwards schools would definitely be scrambling to get days in.

The Point to Click probably gives us the answer...an ADDITIONAL 3-6" for the LSV. 1-2 tonight and 3-6 extra. Schools might be closed Mon and Tue instead of just 2 hours tomorrow. July 4th will be as American as Apple Pie and Schools finally finishing their 180 days.

I meant to say Nam above but guess you figured that out. :-). I am down here until either Wed night or Thursday AM. Keeping both options open in case it snows so much that flights are still delayed Wed. Very excited about the LR as well. Have not had a chance to look today but I would think we have a shot at snow every 3-4 days for the rest of the month. Some times it will cut but at least there is a chance.

I wold have thought that too but the wording on the AFD seems to suggest total of 3-6 for the LSV (the only one I read).

Regardless of snow maps and sleet vs snow the 18Z has a nice 1-2 shot and is certainly deserving of a warning if its depiction is close to correct.