Bubbler86

We ended up around 3" here. @daxx I hit the sack before that heavy band got overhead but Guessing it was snow based on the healthy totals this am.

Hrpdrps means business Sunday. Banded forcing and high rates.

GFS and FV3 are both pretty "meh" for Sunday. Decent snow but a weaker system than the Nam or Euro so really just a continuation of our 2-6" type storms. Snow maps show 4-8ish but that includes 2-3 from tonight. Snow maps are garabage for this situation right now anyway. Anybody who is anybody just wants to see the R/S line 20 miles to the their south east.

Radar is blossoming over the western LSV down to Martinsburg WVA.

No doubt it just pressed a little south from 12 and 18Z and so did the Rgem. Just a model run. I find it more interesting when they are in it as it gives us more info with all the map posting there.

Wow, the MA is winning the model wars this evening. Boundary pressing further south for Sunday and taking the heavier snows south with it. Still decent LSV but MA really gets back in the game. I think that is good as it keeps things interesting. LOL.

It has been mostly snow here, maybe 75 percent with 25 percent rain, but the rates are slow light that it is just making a glaze. I am one 15 min mountain ride from being the Susq Valley.

Your original post asked why the radar looked like CARP. LOL. I should not talk I have an issue with Chrome where it keeps turning off my spell check so I have to edit a lot of posts. Either the models are going to bust or that coastal is going to energize the radar starting in Maryland then heading Northeast over much of the LSV.

Your post sounds a little fishy.

My interpretation is that there is confluence to the north where there actually is a high pressure albeit well west of where we would want it for a block so the Low is basically following the progressive zonal boundary. The further that the boundary is pressed south, the further south the low goes. Check out this pic and notice the 1014 beside that weak 1007 Low. Now I could be totally wrong so I am hoping Mag will fill in the holes from my thought.

It is really snowing/frz raining lightly here so I bet he is getting similar. Here is his link https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E5637

His weather stations are online. They are reporting 30/28 rright now with .01 of precip in the last hour.

Latest MESO Pressure maps show the low developing off shore east of VA Beach. If there was any kind of blocking this would be a blockbuster event with cold air being dragged into the system while qpf is thrown back over us.

It is doing this with forcing from the developing far off shore coastal so yea, we shall see. MA talking about radar back edge but the edge will stop if the NAM depiction is correct....will actual pivot a bit. Edit, though this map must be including sleet. Cherry Hill NJ is probably not getting 4".

Have had freezing rain mixing in with the snow here at times and trees are a bit coated now...need rates to pick up. 0Z Nam suggests they will in the next 3 hours. We shall see. Nam upped a bit again with 3-5" tonight from much of LSV North and East except southern half of Lancaster.

LWX radar was failing for me.

Light snow has started here. Radar looks fairly decent. Never were going to get the stuff in Central VA but some building going out west of us. 30/28

18Z Euro....a small step down from 12Z (for tonight).

Well that is a nice little bump up.

Tell the plumes 1" or bust.

The more robust solutions from this morning, for tonight, have really fallen by the way side. Still a WWA type event for some but energy sliding a bit more east vs. north. Looks like Lancaster may be 2-2 with jackpots these last few days.

With the clouds, falling precip (which will bring some of its own air down if falling fast enough) and being on the south side of the low meaning mostly east or north east winds when the low is near, we are hoping it just cold enough. Laying on the roads is another story. Will need it to snow fairly hard to get that started.

NAM for Sunday storm. An amazing 15 hour event now.

Going back to this to say 'Hi" since the NAM now has snow breaking out in the western LSV at 7AM Sunday. Lol.

Here is a slightly different worded one for the Western LSV and other areas. A little bearish if you ask me. PAZ034>036-056-063-064-020815- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1500Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/ Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches topped by a light glazing of ice are expected tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter.