Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Yea, my post was an IMBY comment but it did cut off 1-2" here and areas of N Md just below me. We are in the 5-6 now vs. the 6-7 before. Maybe Ouch was too strong of a word but "Dang, wrong direction" would have worked. -
Ouch.....well it changed some out here. Lost an inch or 2 imby.
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Checked out the NE thread and heard the Euro is pretty much unchanged up there so map should be out soon. A "tick" south east per their posts.
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The Nam continues to show the surface temps are the only real issue at the height of the storm...925, 850 are all well below freezing. So it is going to snow whether you are at 32 or 36 with any kind if intensity. Here is hour 30 from 18Z. Blue to Green is the freezing line for the surface. Not sure I beleive the HRRR showing rain for so long.
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The Casey Kasem of weather...King Elliot helped many a person in Philly become a weather nut. I think he coined the term Gorrila in the Gulf.
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The Herpy Derps penetration of 4+ inches into 2/3 of the PA is a nice look and would really suggest a nice event with 10" lollipos down LSV way. Only model I can recall showing such a strong signal for 4+ inches that far north.
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After seeing the Euro I am surprised at the Nam's low output. Not low as in too low but would have thought we would see some 1" qpf outputs.
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Let the warnings fly!
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Yes, great news. Now if the nam come backs north in 90 min we are back in business with 6 plus for the lsv
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Thanks very much. Looks great!
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Euro seems similar to yesterday. Sitting at primanti Bros so so maybe someone can post the accum map.
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I was not trying to be negative just stating what the nam was showing. It is a let down for me personally if we end up with another sloppy 3 or 4".
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I used to consider it 4" or more but the plows come around even for 1-2" now so who knows. Here to hoping to we get more than a plowable snow tomorrow. LOL
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It was a few days ago but had gone to as long as a 15 hour event yesterday...just taking its time strolling over us with less than heavy snow.
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I would say it because the Nam's depiction is mostly light to moderate with not much forcing to add to rates. 12 hours of snow and snow maps only show 3-7" which means 1/2" hr rates....so a strung out period of light to moderate snow. If you look at the 3K Nam snow map you will see a lit of purple stripes where all the ridges are which is the model suggesting elevation event.
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One good thing is that a good bit of the snow comes late and after sundown. It has gone back again from a 15 hour event to more of a 10-12 hour one.
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The Euro had a bad year. Not as bad as the GFS in my opinion but I think "King Euro" is a questionable nickname.
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Yea, it does not scream go out and buy milk. Snow maps show 3-7" for LSV. Similar to the 6Z Euro but a bit less especially to the North of the Turnpike where gradient takes it down fast.
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Nam has the R/S line setting up just south of the Mason. Thermal profiles are really questionable and anyone could go to slop without intensity.
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On the 12Z Nam the snow start is much delayed vs. yesterday's NAM. No snow near the LSV at 7AM now.
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Yep, one of those situations where we get decent snow but it is a let down. With that said the cold air is pressing more so it will be potentially a tad colder if we get enough rates to get accumulations started. Kind of hard to be the jackpot on this one. Have to be near the boundary.
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Thanks, I guess I should have said 5-7" not 4-6" bit I saw the 3" marker over near Lancaster county so was smoothing it a bit. Either way it is Certainly a step down from the possibility of 6-12" just yesterday. Big NAM running coming up :-).
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Unfortunately that includes 1-3" (higher amounts east) from last nights snow so it is more of a 4-6" map.
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Really hope this trend of a weaker, slightly more south, slp is done trending for tomorrow.
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We ended up around 3" here. @daxx I hit the sack before that heavy band got overhead but Guessing it was snow based on the healthy totals this am.
