Bubbler86

I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug. That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined).

GFS says "Not so fast PA/NY line for first part of weekend storm. Still gives 2-4 Thur night and somewhere in the 4-8" range on a front thump for Saturday before the warm comes rushing in.

This will slow us all down. Keep the airplanes down as well.

North Central Florida went through a time of seemingly yearly extreme freezes (Temps between 10 and 15 degrees) in the 70's and 80's and the 1993 Storm of the Century that caused them to move most of the real producing Orange Groves toward Orlando and south so it is rare that oranges are actually damaged any more despite news reports of it. BUT those Euro weekly forecasts might change that. :-)

I am in Florida about one week per month. We saw about a 1/4" of snow in Ocala Circa 2010 (pic attached) and I think this February is going to be their best chance of seeing it again. Tampa and some of the Eastern Space Coast see Ocean Effect flurries all the time but I am referring to actual synoptic snow. This is a bit off topic but it is not during an active storm so...

...and it brings frozen precip down to the Florida border if not into it. A real classic storm. A bit of a fast mover so totals are not epic.

To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved. So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing. It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer.

264 for the score. Classic Gorilla in the Gulf.

Quick eyeballing it would suggest 1-2" of just plain rain.

No doubt just a bit surprised to see the mix line getting that far north. Come Friday morning, just taking the GFS verbatim, it would just be a wet drive in the mid to upper 30's. For some reason I thought this first system was a slam dunk for us but apparently not so.

18Z GFS is a clear changeover to rain for Thursday night. Gets mixed back up to State College which is a surprise.

We are trending the wrong way right now. The players are not on the US map yet so still up in the air.

Here are 850's from the EPS. Williamsport and their OKC fans might even have issue with that but check out the second panel, with its pretty purples, after the front. In defense of winter weather, panel 120 does show a CAD signature but

This was a lot of ice though...if FRZA it is not something I want part of! Over 1".

Maps I saw posted in the MA forum show a lot of ice for the LSV after the front end 8-12" snow dump.

Get out the generators!

I mentioned as such this morning. This storm has a great potential to underwhelm even if a foot fell. John Q Public is expecting the next week off work and school.

Well that is not good for snow. That high is much too far west as has been stated.

I concur with this. I do not remember the exact date but there was a storm in the 1980's where it rained a good 1/2" an hour with it in the teens. It would devastate trees and power.

If I see a drastic change in something between one run or another I always put my money on the NAM vs. the GFS.

Personally I felt like it had a more smooth transition to a snowier solution, for this previous weekend system, than some of the more traditional models such as UK and GFS which I believe jumped around a bit more. I am surprised at all the NAM hate I keep reading about (mostly in the MA forum). No doubt it is a shorter range model but I lurked some over the last few years and although they all miss some times, the NAM seems quite good at catching late trends in storms within 48 hours.

Here you go https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011412&fh=6

Carlisle has already revealed my age though locals who know high school nicknames could have figured it out :-).

Ahh, I did not realize that, thanks for the clarification.

Hi Josh and welcome. I just came back myself after a 13 year hiatus (re: lived in Florida). Not much has changed since I left as to the "other forum". I live exactly one half mile from the Maryland line and I choose to post here. It is funny how a lot of us have similar stories about wives and friends thinking we are different because we enjoy weather. I have noticed that many of the people like this are between 40 and 70 so I think it has something to do with the prevalence of NOAA weather radios and news stations that focused on weather, like KYW in Philly, during the 70's and 80's. Stuff like that got a lot of people addicted...and without easy access to "the internet" back then. It somehow seemed to form this cult of weather followers who all take it out on the internet now. I am sure there were weather nuts before this but without the internet to bring them together it did not grow to the level that it has now.