Bubbler86

Personally I felt like it had a more smooth transition to a snowier solution, for this previous weekend system, than some of the more traditional models such as UK and GFS which I believe jumped around a bit more. I am surprised at all the NAM hate I keep reading about (mostly in the MA forum). No doubt it is a shorter range model but I lurked some over the last few years and although they all miss some times, the NAM seems quite good at catching late trends in storms within 48 hours.

Here you go https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011412&fh=6

Carlisle has already revealed my age though locals who know high school nicknames could have figured it out :-).

Ahh, I did not realize that, thanks for the clarification.

Hi Josh and welcome. I just came back myself after a 13 year hiatus (re: lived in Florida). Not much has changed since I left as to the "other forum". I live exactly one half mile from the Maryland line and I choose to post here. It is funny how a lot of us have similar stories about wives and friends thinking we are different because we enjoy weather. I have noticed that many of the people like this are between 40 and 70 so I think it has something to do with the prevalence of NOAA weather radios and news stations that focused on weather, like KYW in Philly, during the 70's and 80's. Stuff like that got a lot of people addicted...and without easy access to "the internet" back then. It somehow seemed to form this cult of weather followers who all take it out on the internet now. I am sure there were weather nuts before this but without the internet to bring them together it did not grow to the level that it has now.

That is quite the range. Do we all have that liberty of saying we nailed it if we get within 36" of the total? LOL. If so then I am locking in for this weekend. LSV sees 1"-37".

I have already received a "friends and family" email asking about predictions so the media must really be pumping this up. Afraid to say anything as the two LR models I trust the most show it getting to 50 and raining a lot. GFS is an all out dumping though :-).

Snowfall map posted by Don Sutherland on Mid Atlantic thread. Source: National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

Several old-timers there that started their #neweather, EUSwx etc careers off as sarcastic internet tough guys and 15-20 years later they are type cast and feel they need to keep performing for their crowd. I suspect most of the of the sarcastic ones are decent people in "real life".

I thought you would have picked up some...Greencastle seems to be getting raked. Would not be surprised if they picked up close to a couple inches in the last hour.

Yea it is so hard to tell with this type of snow...it looks like it is charging in then loses support and dries up quickly. Seems it is snowing again in Cumberland and Adams county.

Up to 4" here now....roads are covered again...this stuff is creeping north so some of you are going to get some more tonight.

Snow has varied in intensity this AM. Over 3" now but hard to measure as it is quite a bit warmer than I anticipated. Has kept the ratio's down lower here. As whole this thing has not been an issue for the roads, with the sun up now, as it up to 31.

I think it is amazing that the HRRR is suggesting the Delmarva is going to get ANOTHER 6-8 (corrected)" of snow.

Picked this up from the Mid Atlantic Long Range thread. Really do not want to see this as it is life and property threatening. These are surface temps.

Snow is picking up again as the upper level low starts to get closer. Shoveled the driveway and it is already dust covered again Hope we all (in and near the LSV) get another 1-2" to make this a nice moderate event.

Waking up to about 2.5". I thought I would have 3-4 at this point so a bit disappointing. Nam lays down another few inches but HRRR on an inch.

You need a snow light :-) About 1 1/2" here...expect to pick up 2-3 inches in the next few hours as bands come in from WV.

Check out this 19 hour panel from the 12K Nam. Ohio Valley snow still. Coastal influences are really still up in the air a bit. It stays snowing in those same places for 6 more hours.

I have seen several model depictions showing snow tomorrow evening, coastal based, back into Western PA. We are slightly over an inch here. First plow just came through.

When it started here it was still daylight time and I really could not see the snow without concentrating on something dark but I was alerted to it by a wet feeling repeatedly hitting my arm. Those flakes were all that was left from drying the column on the way down. We are getting quite large dendrites now.

Streets are slightly covered here now. (Side streets). Steady light to moderate snow. Dusting +

First flakes flying here....a bit warmer than I was expecting. 34. DP will drop that shortly. North trend seems to have stopped as Canderson was alluding to so as Mag mentioned the larger amounts are going to be all about where a possible coastal deform sets up. Will be the difference between 3" and 8". Here is our "Icon"

7 to 8" of snow in Missouri, models quickly trending north.... Confluence is going to have to really kick ass or this snow is going to be comparable to Nov. possibly even into Cumberland and dauphin counties. Maybe not 8" but nws has to be worried their wwa should be a wsw for some. This is for total event snow and any that falls Sunday afternoon and evening.