Each model run I see has areas of very enhanced rain so someone is going to get more than 2" if that plays out. But like you mentioned, .5 is just fine for grass and plants. The 2" is more helpful for the water sources. Three 1/4" rainfalls over a week is much better for the grass than one 3" rainfall and baking sun the other 6 days.
How much for R'Ville? Not much. LOL. 1/2" would be just dandy for me. It seems no matter how much it rains the sun is going to put a beating on the grass if it is dry for a day or two.
I am going to throw out a forecast and say someone from CTP south and east is having rain by noon tomorrow. Models have been suggesting rain gets into the MSV and USV a bit earlier than the LSV.
One thing I keep seeing is the retrograding/reformation/block of the law as it gets over us Saturday AM. Could make for some very disparate precip totals as shown on the EC. People being dry slotted and not getting the 1.5 to 2". On the other hand its keeps a spinning area of moisture close to us all weekend so rain is possible into Monday. EC is, as usual, hotter than anything else so it busts when things trend cold or looks like a winner when they go above forecasts. But even it does not get MDT above 75 until a week from tomorrow. Low 70's Monday.
Nam keeps both Sat and Sun below 50 all day at MDT (Unless Sun midnight peaks over). Getting my A/C serviced this afternoon and I might have to ask the guy if he can switch gears and keep my heat going instead.
If I am reading MDT's info correctly, which I might not be, any daily highs of 50 or less will break a record for any day going forward. Like @TimB84 mentioned, a record could be lost due to the midnight/1AM thing.
At least for MDT, that cold front is pressing pretty good by midnight so although it may be higher than they say noon, the difference should not be too much.
Even Monday, which is "better' is still 10-15 below normal. I am punting on MDT coming in above normal for the month. EC does not get MDT back to normal highs through the entire run and wallops the area with 1-2" more rain next week. MDT comes in with 4" for the whole run.
Rain starting Friday afternoon and still fairly warm at that point. 20-30 degrees below normal highs for Sat and Sun with on and off rain into Sunday night.
The wide angle radar looks amazing with yellow dots everywhere but when you focus into to a closer look, not that impressive yet. But MDT in line for something.