Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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To add insult to injury, the GFS suggests we are going to have some serious hydro issues over the next 7-10 days. 5 inches of rain.
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I certainly see your point I am just so used to feeling like we need a strong HP there to help resist this from happening and the high is running away like a scared school child.
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..and just to add to this, I am not making a point against Carlisle in any manner. He is as good as they come as to a weather poster. I was not trying to be pessimistic I was just hoping to see reason for it to snow show up in the GFS and I am having trouble finding it. The fact that it drives the Low near Erie is not the issue vs. finding why it would keep it in VA.
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Seeing it drive a 993 up into Albany is kind of crazy.
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I am looking at it realistically in that we need a high pressure to our North or North East to keep a low from gaining latitude. But I am far from getting to the point of not watching models however I do not see any meteorological reason that we can get a big snow storm this weekend at this point.
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The whole state is just a big rain storm. Congrats Montpelier.
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GFS is going to be almost all rain for the LSV this weekend (front end). 540 line is already north of much of the LSV as the precip enters.
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I do not doubt that CAD (though for me at 800' I might lose it) can hold strong and stay frozen but I am pulling for snow and not seeing the trends moving enough. I fear I am moving into wish-casting territory!
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I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store. We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us. We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good. 12Z GFS is bringing low #1 into Pitt! Ugh.
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The icon on TT skipped right over the storm with the radar maps I was looking at but here is the end result...a bit north of the UK for our neck of the woods.
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I think I read somewhere that the Icon is partially funded by area milk and bread companies.
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12Z Nam is all snow for Thursday night. 1-3" generally for most both LSV and other areas in Central and Eastern PA. Jackpots Central VA with 4-5". The one positive thing is the SLP and boundary location, as NUT has been speaking, is set more south than the GFS. Its not much of a Low but it does go off Southern VA coast.
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That was weird...we both thought of that. Ha.
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And if you have to bail Saturday AM some near streams might have to bail again Sunday AM after all the rain.
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Not sure anyone would debate that, though if you have a block or TPV close by a storm could go fairly parallel east and still slip under us, but some earlier model depictions had the LP farther south than KY so something to keep watching if model watching is an interesting sport to someone.
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I do not have Stormvista access so just limited 24 hour weenie panels but the 500MB and this 850 panels do not look great for ALL snow.
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Missed that in my snip, apologies. That was an old run but here is the new one with a similar look for Saturday night.
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I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug. That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined).
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GFS says "Not so fast PA/NY line for first part of weekend storm. Still gives 2-4 Thur night and somewhere in the 4-8" range on a front thump for Saturday before the warm comes rushing in.
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This will slow us all down. Keep the airplanes down as well.
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North Central Florida went through a time of seemingly yearly extreme freezes (Temps between 10 and 15 degrees) in the 70's and 80's and the 1993 Storm of the Century that caused them to move most of the real producing Orange Groves toward Orlando and south so it is rare that oranges are actually damaged any more despite news reports of it. BUT those Euro weekly forecasts might change that. :-)
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I am in Florida about one week per month. We saw about a 1/4" of snow in Ocala Circa 2010 (pic attached) and I think this February is going to be their best chance of seeing it again. Tampa and some of the Eastern Space Coast see Ocean Effect flurries all the time but I am referring to actual synoptic snow. This is a bit off topic but it is not during an active storm so...
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...and it brings frozen precip down to the Florida border if not into it. A real classic storm. A bit of a fast mover so totals are not epic.
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To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved. So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing. It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer.
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264 for the score. Classic Gorilla in the Gulf.
