Bubbler86

I would expect there are indeed some reports of 6-8" along the southern half of Adams, York and Franklin counties...especially the higher elevation areas of those counties.

LSV folks should really keep open to the possibilities of a moderate snow. 2 to 4" type.

Wow. Thanks for the info. Tomorrow is going to hurt but better times ahead.

I thought liberty somehow, even with many days in the 50's, had some slopes open...not the tubing though last time I checked. It has indeed been a terrible season for them so far.

Down here we got a very light coating on decks and cars...it is well above freezing so was not going to lay on road surfaces.

Get Ready Harrisburg...here comes an outburst of graupel and crud.

I am flying INTO MDT at 11AM Saturday morning so make sure your "trying" keeps that stuff out of here until later in the day Saturday. :-)

I was just coming on to post about the WWA. Would be surprised to see too many icing issues with the warm temps lately but still interesting. Everyone keeps saying the 13th and 14th for the weekend storm...GFS would have snow moving in during Saturday the 12th.

I concur wholeheartedly. Horst is entitled to his opinion and if it turns out right then we can go back to Dec and say 'he had it right weeks ahead of time" but on Jan 1, any punts for January more than 7 days out are certainly not gospel.

Yea for stat purposes we all know our back yard therm's have stayed below 30 at least a few of those days but big picture the stat tells the same story for all...we have had no sustained arctic air masses for almost a year now. I saw MDT hit 77 and 79 last February which is also crazy!

I know some guys love to digest the progs every 6 or 12 hours and watch the ebb's and flows but I think the models are showing their normal issue with pattern changes and the regular progression of the "change of the seasons" as it were. There can certainly be some argument made that our apparent weather is going to change from the past as the oceans continue to warm so strictly relying on my method of forecasting long range, which includes a dash of models and a pinch of common sense and seasonal history, can be dangerous. However I still think January is going to end up being the flip of December in that by mid month we will be pushing double digit plus departures in the temp department with the only chance of real wintry precip being one of lucky timing of moisture being nearby when one of these transient cool periods stops in between the Pacific torch that is currently dominating our air mass. Then winter gradually eases in with negative departures and the famous "storms and rumors of storms" for a 4-6 week period. Of interest to me is that MDT recorded a Trace of snow on 12/30 so the record of a completely snowless month fell by the wayside at almost the final hour. This has not stopped pansies from deciding that Spring has Sprung and populating our flower bed this AM! Another interesting stat presented to me this morning, for Middletown again, is that it has not stayed below 30 for a daytime high since January 15th, 2018 so the airport is within 2 weeks of seeing it get to 30 or above every day for one consecutive year.

Happy New Year everyone. Storming to "beat the band" here right now with numerous lightning strikes. Temp rose from 42 to 49 within an hour. At least it is interesting weather if not snow. Waynesboro cancelled their Waynesburger drop for tonight. Moved to tomorrow.

I dumped some ice in my lawn last evening and just noticed it is still mostly there 24 hours later. I am going to go ahead and chalk that up as a win in this winter so far.

I had been pinpointing mid January for a bit but was really hoping we get something before then just to have something to talk about other than rain total records and balmy temps. I cannot imagine the whole winter goes up in a poof so it is indeed coming eventually...at least cold weather and rumors of storms.

MR and LR models are abandoning us right now for the majority of the month of January. Lets hope they are wrong otherwise we will be seeing a continuation of several days in the 50's for the first two weeks Jan. I thought for sure this pattern was going to flip and maybe it will but anyone that would have to forecast based on modeling would have to toss out most of the first two weeks of Jan, for winter weather, at this point. Today's marks the 4th day in a row we have hit 50 down here near the MD border and that is at 800'. I know official stations like MDT are only going into the upper 40's.

Yea, I certainly understand how people are not appreciating how rare of an event this really is as a trace of snow is really no snow as far as we are concerned but for record keeping purposes, this December is going to go down as one of the worst (possibly the worst) winter weather wise in history of stations such as MDT. I never really was talking about temps though I suspect we will end up this month about 3-4 degrees above average. I was just focusing in on the snow and sleet focus of it. 2015 was terrible but MDT saw it snow from the sky 3 times. Mood flakes as some call it. There are actually one or two Decembers from 88 up that had just one or two times where it snowed so 2015 is not even the worst in the last 30 years. I really was responding to a post that said we were in a good pattern when in reality we were in a terrible pattern all of December. We went from a suppression regime over to a blow torch with temps that rival the holy grail of 2015 though a bit less. I am about to head out for the day and am wearing shorts! LOL. Edit-In the end I was never suggesting this December was better or worse to any other specific person just that we had the potential to have a fairly historic chance to have had absolutely no snow, sleet or freezing rain fall from the sky for the whole month. Something that did not happen even in the supposed worst Decembers of the past making this December as bad as they come for winter weather.

Meteorologist King Elliot Abrams. The originator (I think) of the term 'Gorilla in the Gulf'.

Hey Mag, It was me that brought the above up and my thought was based on Decembers where there was not even a trace of snow. I only looked back to 1988 but from that point forward no December at MDT has ever gone by without a trace of snowfall until the potential of this one. 2015 actually featured trace snow fall recorded 3 times. Trace, no trace...still basically no snowfall but it takes a special kind of bad month to not have even a trace. Here is the climate data showing a trace 3 times in December 2015 so if that is wrong then my premise is wrong as well! :-). The 3 green T's are under the new snowfall column.

You too! A safe and Blessed Holiday for all of you and yours. The afternoon LR models are backing down from a "great" pattern 14 days out so boo on them. The flips they frequently make give me a headache forecasting out more than 7 days!

Personally I am leaning toward any toss up storms switching over to being more snow than rain as we go into 2019. The pattern is going to be better and climatology wise we do not need perfect patterns that have blocking, great MJO values, etc......over running and Miller B's can drop a quick 6-12" at any point. Lets face it, we probably do not want the "polar vortex" sitting near us because 1) It is too damn cold. 2) Suppression becomes so much more likely. After this blow torch of the last almost 2/3 of December the pattern change, whether to just a better pattern or a great one, is going to supply us with some fun tracking. We may need one opportunity (maybe the cutter this Friday) to fall on its sword and set the table for the next opportunity.

The whole month of December is now almost 1.5 degrees above normal at MDT. Here is the climate data. Hopefully our patience pays off for January.

For the area below the turnpike it is fairly warm at the moment, with cloud cover already setting in, to hope for accumulating snow tonight. Upper 40's at most stations. Dec may end up close to 5 degrees above normal at this rate if we get another late week torch next week.

I am torn on this one. I think we are going to get a lot of snow in January and having absolutely no snow in December (MDT/LSV area) would make the turn about even more drastic/noteworthy. If we get a few flakes to end the year it is going to end our once in a lifetime no snow in December streak for what would amount to nothing. Personally give me 2" or more otherwise nothing at all.

And I thought us more educated types followed the meteorological winter timing meaning we are a week from being 1/3 into winter. That fall thread title needs to come down. LOL.

NWS did an SWS for your storm Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 324 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018 PAZ063-064-212100- Adams PA-Cumberland PA- 324 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EST...