Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Euro holds off any LSV rains until 24 hours from now and it is a bit stingy outside the winner stripe. Early week tropical moisture is VA Beach and south now.
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Fantasy land but we if get into Mid July with no sustained Summer Heat Waves (90 a day or two is not a heat wave) it would be something.
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12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend. Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend.
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You might get near 90 this Monday. A little something for everyone.
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GFS has Temps under 70 (on the maps) from Monday Night until Thursday AM next week.
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Be careful how you use that term around our models. They are touchy when they hear that term!
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Surprised an 80 that close to the river but guess wind direction plays a role.
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Just hit 72 here. Looks like some areas of the LSV are in the 80's already. Bit warmer today.
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You will have a lot of people argue that the EC should be put away when an event is closer than 3 days but not sure I am on that bandwagon.
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6Z is too close to 9-10Z for it to be constantly double digits too high. GFS 6Z temps are much closer to reality on these occasions. But yea its not a perfect science since it is not an hourly map.
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In my opinion, the American models are usually 2-5 degrees too cool on the really hot days (though sometimes its hard to see their actual forecast since some only show maps in 3-6 hour jumps). But the other way around, the Euro is too warm when it over does a slightly or moderately warm forecast.... especially at night.
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As you know I forecast using models as much as anything else but the GFS, Nam, and CMC all have rain around the LSV area starting overnight and on and off through the day tomorrow. Looking at their forecasts it may clear and then cloud up and rain again Sat Afternoon. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as well but looks a bit better than Sat right now. Highs in the mid 80's on Sunday. Euro looks drier than the others for Sat with rain coming overnight Sat night and risky for light rain Sunday.
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Rain supported.
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Your post reminds me of a interesting "fact". Eating regular ice cream makes your body warmer due to the fat content. So you could sell to people on warm or cool days. LOL.
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Oh yes, a much more traditional summer so far.
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Will be going to bed feeling doo about rain this week though not so great about outdoor activities. Maybe a little clearing late Sunday on the GFS.
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Like Tim mentioned, its still 4 degrees above average for the month at MDT. Its just a lot of variety.
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18Z Nam is much more GFS like with weekend rains for the LSV ( more)
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It's funny how sports teams seem to mess up our lives more often than not. I have had to pull back and not watch some times.
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The 0Z Euro only missed the mark here by 13 degrees this AM. Does it get a participation trophy?
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Euro is definitely a more rainy day here on Sat....no where near the amounts out in Western PA vs. the GFS. There is @pawatch 90 for Monday.
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Kind of dry over this way after Tuesday. Big question now, does the Euro get on the GFS/6Z CMC rain train for this weekend. 12Z CMC was drier.
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Yep, GFS is more of the same. Some really great temp days (some due to rain so not as nice as today) and some moderately warm with a couple late days in the 90's at the end. No long term heat wave signals at all. 500MB near the end of the run is not cold but not hot either.
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Its a bit more than that. About 2" here over the next 7 days. You sure you have the 12Z Map? With that said I on the far western edge of the LSV and eastern LSV is closer to 1". Opps, I just noticed you said by Tuesday. Some of this below is Tuesday itself.
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Yep, and I may have been off by a day with the coldest. Wed Am not Thur. 40's in MD over here and down into Georgia on your side of the Mountains (in the Mnts)
