frd

Even up my way Mount Holly forecast kind of blah. Lots of mentions of rain and it figures we lost the seasonal suppression trend right when we needed it. Nothing really special about this event for the low lands. I really dont care about a few inches of snow. Was hoping for a more offshore solution that helps us area versus the far Western areas.

Excellent post and visuals ! And here in my area both of those were the biggest snows in the last 20 years. Dec 2009 measured 26 inches, and Feb 2003 at 22 inches. In Feb 03 , if not for the sleet would have easily been 30 inches here. Seems what works for your area and for areas near the coastal plain are uniquely different, but makes sense based on your location.

AM EPS looks like a slow movement. Hard to tell thermals but guessing issues for the low lands. Jeez another issue with temps

Good advice , but this is an emotional hobby.

Yeah, I am hoping the outcomes eventually returns to what you posted here. I am also hoping for a slower progression of the system as cold air may wrap back in, but also a quicker and deeper strengthening evolution. A perfect world for us . A stall might be nice for our locations . I imagine the block and how it manifests itself leaves all those options on the table, at least for a couple more days. Hoping for a general consensus to be crushed by Friday evening would certainly set the stage for an exciting weekend. Also, looking to mid Feb it appears we set the table again .

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome. I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

Couldn't this loop offshore. At a lower latitude?

HM mentioned this. HA event.

It is interesting you say that because some Mets are actually playing the Miller A North of us game

Heather

Intriguing probabilities here , thinking more so a Mid Atlantic event, simple speculation though.

Growing evidence of real cold into Canada as Feb advances, while the - NAO recycles, along with hopefully some Pac improvement. Vortex remains weak.

Looks pretty

Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area.

Excellent recap psu , thanks ! Grateful we have another opportunity, maybe this time things work out.

You still feel with better spacing this might be the one ? This potential storm has support across several models and ensembles, not that it means much, but just saying.

Way, way out there Rated on a complexity scale 9 out of 10 . I am being generous.

I would think if I were a betting man that the event on Monday has better thermal odds than this week. At least maybe start as snow and even end as snow , but that hardly ever works out. Are you forming any ideas about mid to later Feb. ? I feel there is some growing evidence that after the cold period ( you posted about earlier ) a cutter visits and then based on evolutions in the Pac we may get another opportunity to get fooled near the 17 th to 28 th of Feb. Thoughts ?

Mount Holly AFD for next Monday, meh, more of the same. For Sunday...An upper-level trough which may be comprised of a closed low centered near the western Great Lakes during Sunday sends leading energy in its base into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will drive surface low pressure near or just south of Delmarva Sunday night. There is a surface high centered well north in Canada with some semblance of a wedge down into our region, however the overall setup is less certain. Given the main energy hanging back over the Great Lakes, we may be dealing with some snow to a wintry mix to a change to rain in some areas. These details are much less certain this far out in time. &&

This is modeled to slow down and spin and then move out. Will feel like a winter's day next Monday. Complex is the new norm around here

Some associations

Interesting, so basically could have been worse. Also may shed a bit of light on Feb and March

Eastern Canada with above normal temps. So far from December 1 st never got a signal form the Canadian 10 day mean that portended an incoming cold air mass, let alone an arctic air mass with staying power. Unless the Pac improves and the EPO delivers last lasting cold into Northern Canada that eventually bleeds SE in time we are cooked. Meaning Atlantic Ocean SSTs continue to remain relatively stable due to the lack of arctic intrusions. For all the - AO , etc. no deliver of Old Man winter.

I settle for the Euro control, occasional MECS, being right once every 5 years. Such a tease, and hardly ever turns out correct.