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Cell developed rapidly NE of Wilmington, DE. and is moving right up I-95 towards Philly.

More of a heavy rain threat. Skies have cleared here for the most part.

Up and down pattern continues

I wish

WPC increased overall precip 7 day totals ( most of that is early week )

Mount Holly more bullish with the heavy rain wording, we shall see. Good luck !

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

Seems that the Nino is already effecting the 500 look next week to late month.

Persistence

SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 16 Jun, 2026 Average SOI for last 30 days -20.85 Average SOI for last 90 days -12.51 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.30 Monthly average SOI values Mar 7.59 Apr -9.88 May -13.22 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 16 Jun 2026 1015.72 1014.90 -3.30 -20.85 -12.51 15 Jun 2026 1014.15 1014.70 -12.93 -21.65 -12.43 14 Jun 2026 1012.95 1015.20 -24.88 -21.99 -12.27 13 Jun 2026 1013.31 1016.35 -30.44 -21.77 -12.05 12 Jun 2026 1013.95 1016.80 -29.10 -21.27 -11.81 11 Jun 2026 1015.79 1016.65 -15.11 -20.72 -11.37 10 Jun 2026 1015.93 1015.45 -5.69 -20.61 -10.91 9 Jun 2026 1014.09 1014.60 -12.65 -20.73 -10.58 8 Jun 2026 1014.36 1016.70 -25.52 -20.24 -10.22 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -

Some changes as we move towards the third week of June.

A few tiny cells popping up in extreme northeast Maryland

Larger view on the Days 0 to 46

Yes, in my mind I know summer here can go to October, but there is always a chance .005% At least soon we will pass the peak sun angle.

Could use more rain, but temps not bad. Worse of the heat behind us?

Several cells pivoting East of DC moving NE.

Quick moving small storm hit here .14 At least it cooled off the garden.

Several cells popping up already.

https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2064837035706163334

Middle of next week has potential.