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More from HM, this time about 1994 , here I can see the logic about that year. So both of those years are extremes as he alludes to here. So maybe we get a combo from various years. I mean you can use a analog in a winter forecast, but we should all know that the year(s) used are similiar to a degree but never an exact match in seasonal forecasting. For example this year I myself can see March being very harsh , when I think March 2003 was not. I like 57 - 58 as a possible late season outcome .

Per HM , this is not a 2009 December coming up, OK To be fair to Anthony you really need to read all his tweets around this topic . He makes good points, as always. He went on to say about there are some positives, but also mentioned at this time back in 2009 he was already speculating on a big storm in December, as you can read below. I did not look, but wondering what the AO and NAO were like durig the summer of 2009.

That's better than most years I think with an El Nino ........

Maybe this leads to a warmer November , but I think if this happens then it lessens the use of 2009 as a analog. Speculation only....

Eric always seems to have keen insights on El Ninos .......wonder the eventual outcome , weak, or moderate ? Or maybe inbetween and of course it could be classified as weak but there is the possibility that the sensibe weather outcomes might minic a moderate El Niino.

Not good news . Might need to do sod now under the trees , or my wife will kill me .

This I like !

Weeklies Hmm no surprises , seems cold rest of the month into Nov and then a warm up . After that who knows .....

Wonder if this helps us down the road , referring to the shake up at the top . Maybe we keep the PV on the weaker side and more prone to wave activity . The second image talks about the impact of the recent hurricanes , Atlantic and Pacific on the pattern.

On a unrelated note, how is your grass seed coming along ? I got lazy and never did my lawn yet, I guess I might still try in the next 3 days as I read fescue can still germinate in air temps between 60 and 75. For me that will be on the lower range of temps ..... I do not see any more 70 plus days after today

Ventrice 's low frequency forecast tool , that helps look at the El Nino like conditions ( in another way ) has done very well the past few months , today he posted this below . Thought it was interesting, as it mimics the Euro Seasonal forecast . As he goes on to mention, the connection most likely is the El Nino itself as the main driver in the Euro's forecast, as per Ventrice that is.

Did he moved North ? I thought he was in your sub-forum area, like DC or Balt. ?? Yeah, that is sad.

Not everything points to 2011. From a simple SOI / MEI comparison I believe 1957 -58 shows up for the most similiar June to early Sept SOI progression . I believe that year featured a very severe Mid Atlantic Snowstorm in March

Looks like storm potential increases at the end of the month . Also, the WAR is slowly becoming displaced and less of a factor .

I like this trend and set up a lot ! In many years past Siberia would get the snow and Canadian snow cover would suffer. Also, I like that fact that since Canada is vital as a cryosphere cold seeding ground seeing this so early and continuing, is a possible sign that we could get earlier than normal cold deliveries and set up earlier potential of winter threats down the line.

North Atlantic SST profile not the same, you agree ? Other parts of the Atlantic are tohugh and so is the Pac overall. I also think right now the SSTs West of Australia that were super cold might have warmed a tad

December 2018 to Feb. 2019 from the JMA ............ I like Looks to a degree like the Euro and Ukmet Seasonals :-)

I believe the JMA weeklies show a builiding West Coast ridge week 4 . And on another note very interesting in regards to Chukchi Sea, this is the area near and around all the recent warmth up there . More and more warmth aimed up there

True. Looking at some of the models there is going to be a rather significant expansion of snow cover soon up there in Siberia . I still feel though there is some correlation to the the coming solar minimum.

Siberia Snow cover , something a bit unusual versus the last 5 to 8 years ( less snow cover advance ) But, I myself don't see this as a concern , and I actually think the odds this year are better than recent years that we are going to get cooperation in regards to blocking and a favorable Pac as well. I actually remember last year that he said snow snow advanced too quickly. In it's high interest years ( 20012 to 2016 ) folks would be calculatiung the squares km by the weeks, but what I find very interesting now is the snow in Canada.

Hey , have you seen the latest SSTs in time progression in the Gulf Of Alaska and the general area West and Southwest of Alaska proper ? Getitng warmer and warmer and maybe we get a + PDO afterall ( to a degree ) Not to mention , it seems like all the palyers on a global scale are re-organizing and starting to show what might be see later in the cold season . I like what I see and maybe December will be more traditional again in terms of winter weather and not 80 degrees and playing hacky sack, and Frisbee in the back yard :-)

Non stop Winter :-) make up for non stop summer

Sounds good , and to a degree, you have some model support as well from the UK and the Euro Seasonal. Seems a lot is going on right now in Siberia / sea ice, etc.... and even the structure of the PV, and maybe we get a decent look into early December in several weeks . I am excited.

Ray, is your thinking based on the progression of the strat and a possible SSWE ( like last Feb leading into that cold and snowy March ) or other factors?

So , the mold , fungus, and mildew on the siding, on top of the landscape, and in the grass and everywhere will be gone soon, awesome . I am soooo happy !