frd

This is a new model to me. I have not heard of it before. Ii would not be surprised to see March being cold and snowy. Almost seems like a general month to month retro of blocking from Greenland then shifting West in time, with the ideal month here portrayed to be March.

By keeping the PV weaker than normal and prone to displacement(s), and further weakening it can encourage colder air to move South towards us and also encourage a -AO. The opposite would be a very, very cold and powerful PV locking up the Cold up North near the pole and keeping the lower lattitudes generally warmer. The stronger the PV gets the harder to weaken it I think. Also, the more early season hits on the PV the better, as that tends to keep the PV from reaching a mature state. Some of these events as HM talks about and others are known at times as precursor events that in the past have shown a connection to future PV events such as weakenings, displacements, minor and major warming events as well.

Keeping the pressure on .......

@C.A.P.E. Do you recall last year at this time I think the Euro seasonal did well, but the weeklies once again were eratic and bouncing around? Maybe place more faith in the Euro seasonals vs the weeklies.

I believe it was 02-03 where things progressed so exactly that HM was able to hit windows of snowfall and threats far out in the distance. Speaking of the MJO and SSTs I watched Weatherbell this AM. and saw the SST profile West of Aussie and it is still the same with the colder SSTs. Also, saw an animation on the Nino region SSTs, and while you hear about the warmer anomalies are shifting East the actual SST warmer temps and sub surface depth has the real focus still being Central Pac based. So, those areas are looking good.

You know there have been times where after a warm-up in the first to second weeks of December there was a marked transition to colder and significant snowfall in the third and fourth weeks of December. Not saying that will happen, but timing is going to be interesting as we roll over the pattern and see what the weather does closer to the holidays.

There goes the snow cover with that look, and if so, a major set back. However, I doubt the warmer / ugly pattern would hold, even if it were to develop based on the Nino. Plus, there are some hits on the PV and other things going on, no need to be concened yet. I did post here last week that many time the models that are going cold for December will reverse when we get closer and correct to a more climo based neutral to warmer December, simply because of Nino and the past history.

Thanks Isotherm!

Volatility....................

Thats funny. I noticed that too. I have seen him post minutes apart that deep winter coming, and then warmer is possible. Judah is covering all the options, but that approach at times can be annoying. I am sure one outcome will happen. Maybe it is time to just let the cards play out. It is way too early in the season to devote a lot of time into the long range when we are not even in climo. Just watch some football today and I hope Isotherm is correct about later December :-)

Another view from yesterday, what a wrap up off NJ ! Talking about the satellite loop below. To me that sat loop was amazing to look at.

To achieve some of the robust seasonal snowfall forecasts by some outfits we will need to cash in on both light and moderate systems as well. One or even two warning events will not make the grade when some calls are for 30 inches at BWI and 30 to 40 at Philly. However, if anything the continuous stream of moisture looks to continue and many seasonal models as of the last updates were depicting a boundary South of us , so over running type storms in about three weeks would work well, as well as Miller A's and Miller B's. Wonder if we get into a pattern of robust Northern systems in time as well, like we did several years ago. Those that produce for the BWI area are rare, ( little moisture ),but maybe that too is possible later in the season. If anything, it is great too see the continuous expansion South of Snowfall. Also, the big dive down in the AO and the NAO in November, as you know good signs for the winter. Another positive is that the EPS is having issues at the higher lattitudes and I would think it will forecast soon a more favorable outlook at the pole and in the NW territories. Also, I read the CFS is undere estimating strat warming at long leads, so when you see it forecasting a month out for a significant warming expect the actual warming to be even greater. ( and it fits the background state as well so far ) Time will tell, but so far no real issues.

Impressive storm here, over 2 inches of rain and the radar loop really cool !

The deeper we get into December the better I feel that our chances improve. Simple and stress free hopefully!

Isotherm, great update, thanks ! If I may ask a quick question, recent modeling in the last 24 hours, ie., EPS and even the GEFS , also the Euro weeklies, have some folks concerned about December as a whole, ( warm vs cold ) with weakening of the -EPO and changes over Alaska. Is this to be expected and it seems that the models have been having a hard time recently. So, I guess what I am asking is don't worry about the models ? The colder/ snowier second half of December is still a outcome to consider ?

What you are saying could very well happen. I think the too, that the colder risks outweigh the warmish ones. Also, some crazy cold air forecasted to deepen and spread out over time in Russia, maybe at some point we tap into this with the right set-up. That indeed would be nasty. We have this going on as well. So maybe the displacement if that is what is forecasted shifts coldest air to Russia and then late month we get the so called lag effect ( 3 to 5 weeks )

Yeah, models are having a difficult time to say the least. MJO progression would seem to favor the colder outcomes . I read from another forum that sometimes the models might want to go to a colder solution in the long range, but in time will correct to a more traditional El Nino December analog average, meaning normal to above. However, even if true, the evolution very well might fit some roll over forecasts of a cold December 1 to 14 th, then a warm up to December 20 to 25th and then a rapid turn to colder again. I guess anything is to be taken with a grain of salt. On a side note, there remains a lot of play on the PV so, those who are going with a overall cold and stormy December might still get that outcome , and if so, maybe that will show up in a week on the models. No easy job here forecasting December.

What are your thoughts on the up and down and inconsistent Euro weeklies? Seems they are struggling to me. They sure did shift warmer. Maybe it might be best to go with the Euro seasonal and the favorable upcoming MJO. I have seen in the past 21 days the weeklies shift, and at times underplay or overplay certain key players and indices.

Funny thing is, we could beat climo snowfall in just a short period of time. An active cold and stormy period later in the season could deliver several big hitters. I know many were thinking December would deliver, and it may, but I feel we need to temper expectations. Almost wondering whether the best part of the month, December that is , happens later, well after December 5th. Interesting to note the extreme cold forecasted to deepen and pool over Siberia. A few years back there was talk of a so called bath tub slosh effect. Where as some mets mention this pattern of extreme cold up there would move South slosh like a bath tub, so seeing that you could expect a cold air outbreak in our area some 3 weeks later. Speculation at this point.

Was not aware these are out again. Seems now they are jumping around. December actually looks great and the best to me . I am not sure how much faith to put into these.

I can see warmer later in the month, but not the early part. Plus, we get a favorable MJO phase 8 1 2 progression as well in December.

No No No No he did not post this ......... Yes Yes Yes I like it though :-) :-) Eh....the way things are going, well why not ?? A little DC lovin

The most important take away is that the Nino is Modaki and central based. That is critical. Another plus, the El Nino is not weakening. Most forecasts call for a high-end weak Modaki El Nino. However, keep in mind that there is some uniqueness here with this El Nino. HM alluded to the walker cell and how talked about this last week. I almost think this type of El Nino so far seems to be wanting to favor cold. IMHO As per DT on this :

Mentioned this over at the MidAtlantic forum. This upcoming cold blast is the second one to occur in our areas in the past 5 weeks where some of the coldest air on the globe, negative anomaly-wise, was centered in the NE part of the country. I really feel snow cover has a lot to do with this so far. And, more snow cover is forecasted going forward. Bundle up !

Wow, this does look impressive. I would think the outcomes are more El Nino like conditions and a longer lasting El Nino into the Spring and beyond possibly. No wimpy kid here. This combined with seasonal blocking patterns hopefully delivers a big dog eventually.