frd

The morning discussion from Mount Holly indicates that some of the parameters for severe weather are getting a little more robust for Friday. 

Also the WPC has increased rainfall totals in the northern Mid-Atlantic early next week. 

This comes in a backdrop of another dive in the Arctic oscillation and the NAO.  

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Until other globals get in on this, I'll remain doubtful. Euro long range QPF has been dubious of late.

Just like the Euro snowfall forecast during winter,  and the triple XXX Control Model snowfal forecast. All those teenagers getting hot and bothered looking at 30 inch snowfall in the next 360 hours .  Does mommy know they are looking at those hot pink colors.       

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was up your way over the weekend and it is super dry there. Grass looked brown and dormant.

Yep until today I believe it had not rained significantly for at least 4 weeks possibly

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like 3"+ per radar estimates.

Thanks. Was not expecting that much when I left for work this morning. 

Not sure yet how much rainfall here but all I can say is based on the road conditions and flooding it must be quite a bit,  it's been non-stop extremely heavy rain for the last 2 hours. 

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

It gets no credit now if we whiff again.

WPC will be wetter next update 

And we are much, much wetter. Excellent!!

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

They generally seem to love the GFS. The other globals have been consistently wetter.

 

Agreed, they are to the GFS as DT is to the Euro. 

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO v. GFS.  The drier model has been winning out so far this year....

WPC cut back totals again in the East. 

Thought a storm was arriving,  but it is a wall of smoke with reduced visibilities and darkness.  Strange times   

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Monday into Monday night still looks good for showers and a few t-storms on guidance. Who cares if more rain falls well SW/NE, as there is a high probability for some widespread rains through our region. A half inch to an inch is a major win at this point. We beggars.

Yes, I am a beggar. 

Take what we can at this point.   

Afternoon WPC appears to have lessened QFP early next in our area. The heaviest rainfall is well North and well SW  

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Opted for an N95 when walking the dogs.

I plan to use one later if I have to water. 

1 minute ago, ge0 said:

when's the last time something like this happened?

I honestly can't remember this ever happening in the last 30 years

Mount Holly weather service mentions in their discussion that they are reducing the chance of rainfall tomorrow and lowering the probabilities due to the smoke content of that atmosphere, supposedly the nuclei of the smoke particulates affects the rainfall productivity in the atmosphere. 

Worse morning so far in Wilmington Delaware. Walking into work from the parking lot,  the smell of smoke is rather intense,  visibility is also lower this morning than yesterday at this time.

Wondering whether the showers North of Altoona, PA.  will get me later. The other area looks as if it is headed for Wilmington, De and Philly.  

Rather dark here. Impressive smoke density and coverage.  

47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Starting to get some consensus on rain chances next Monday-Tuesday. Strong trough in the Lakes with a low passing to our west can be productive for storms as well. 

Yep, the WPC made a significant change in days 6 and 7 rainfall chances in the East with their afternoon update.  

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

Rabbits

I have plenty of rabblits, they must be on strike. Or, they were paid off by the Clover OG   

On 5/22/2023 at 4:54 PM, CAPE said:

I have that too, but it stays mostly along the edge of the woods.

What is the best clover killer @CAPE?  Thanks. 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Just maybe we will see something like this in Jan.

Still think we fry in July, August and September ?   

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

High of 88 here.

Ready for the cooldown. Bring the low to mid 70s.

Another deep dive for the AO and a huge spike up in the PNA, ha ha what a joke.   not to mention - NAO 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The thought of the presence of a legit STJ with HL blocking episodes during winter is enticing. Those h5 looks suggest the possibility of suitable cold being injected into the pattern.

Even cold enough for @psuhoffman    Bring it !!!!  

Soil moisture falling off a cliff.  

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like a painfully close miss to significant rain. I’ll be in the drought thread if you need me.

Grass turning brown here and flowers getting stressed,  no rain here for multiple weeks.