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frd

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    January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Still to early to tell about the very end of the month, but this post by Griteater makes a good point about opposing forces, at least at the end of the month. 

     Posted 1 hour ago

    A few thoughts on the pattern ahead...

     

    The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14).

    As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east.

    The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern.

    In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern.

    I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

     

    Jan 11 Euro Pres Pattern.png

     
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    January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    The weird thing though is the eps longwave pattern is even better than the gefs.  It’s just warm. I find that part very believable 

    The more snow cover that gets wipes away up North the worse for us as we head deeper into Jan. Maybe something out of the ordinary will occur that leads to a wintery March.  I don't have high hopes for that, but we will see.  

    January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

    Feel free to call bullshit, but I mean it. Of course I’d love to get 20-40” but the stats and trends don’t lie. The 20” average is likely outdated, and I’ve been adjusting my expectations accordingly. 

    I have adjusted my expectations down to zero for this year, if I get some snowfall I will be happy.  Year after year I can see the difficulty in getting snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Also, looking around it is just not here any longer. Ski resorts suffering in the NE, record warmth in many locations in the US  , across the pond it is very warm.   

    Frustrating to say the least. I love tracking snow potential, but the ROI and heart break at times makes me grumpy, so I have learned to temper things and enjoy whatever the weather may bring.    

    • Thanks 1

    January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

    The MJO sure looks promising. Hopefully the teleconnections will soon trend more favorably. Has anyone ever tried correlating MJO phases with how teleconnections line up?

    The MJO is connected to other weather teleconnections, The MJO phase 8 cold and snow,  by itself is not a a guaranteed correlation in the East , especially outside of New England according to @burgwx. This was an interesting read, as I already knew the MJO is just one of many players, but this post below by Tomer takes that point home. 

    FROM Tomer Burg  @burgwx

    <

    there’s no strong nor even close to a guaranteed correlation between MJO phase 8 & cold/snow pattern in the East. Besides the strongest correlation being in New England with a lower correlation elsewhere, the MJO isn’t the sole driver of global weather patterns & in this case there’s too much working against the establishment of a colder pattern, including the lack of sufficient cold across southern Canada — the source region for our upcoming air masses is warmer than average over Canada, which would do little to favor more than transient periods of near-below normal temps before trending warmer again. >

    >0E3981C1-299C-423A-9779-A4FB6AB6E1F4.png

     

     

     

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    January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

    OP GFS has always been a bad model, but I feel like it has been absolutely atrocious this year. Anyone have the model validation chart?

    I wouldn’t worry even a little bit what this model shows beyond 120 hours.

    Keep looking at the GEFS. Yea they’ll follow the leader a little bit, but chess pieces still on the board at 18z

    Long way to go…

    c894c946dc527c235a57a8e9774014de.jpg


    .

    I posted skill score yesterday,  it is doing badly. 

    • Like 1

    January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

    I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV.  I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days.

    I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run.  Which in itself is flimsy...

    Agree.  Depending on the source the ideas in the HL and strat differ.  

    For example Judah 

     

    And this from Simon opposite view 

     

    gfs_nh-vort3d_20230102_f000_rot000.thumb.png.68266380e373ebbef9d1ee6a8d28fd13.png

     

     

    gfs_nh-vort3d_20230102_f384_rot000.thumb.png.0b4182795e5ac4a9fd4b05951ccc5271.png

     

    .........

    • Thanks 1

    January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Really thought the SPV would weaken late month,  but it appears it wants to get stronger again.  Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season.  Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires. 

     

     

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