frd

On 5/21/2023 at 5:40 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO now has the coastal low for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend...

Pathetic Euro, can not forecast snow or rain.    

Next week some spots in Canada going 20 degrees above normal. Heat moves South into the Northern US.  Crazy,  meanwhile no rain as area of rainfall stays SE of us mostly, soil ground getting harder and harder.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The upper ridge and sprawling surface HP to the north of the closed h5 low will likely keep most of the precip south/east of our region this weekend. That will make those who have outdoor plans happy, but the dryness will continue.

With the warning Atlantic come June or July where I do for a 1 and 100 year flood

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Abnormally dry along the western side of the bay, as well as along the Potomac around DC. Moderate drought SE of there in So MD.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

Grass here in spots already going brown on downslopes 

Latest WPC inches the rain chances further North day 6 and 7 .

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking forward to Tuesday and Wed. Weather looks incredible, and I will be at Rehoboth- ahead of the Memorial day weekend madness.

Awesome !  have fun ! 

Cool weather the rest of the month mostly.  

43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Next batch looks to be focused right along the immediate coast on the mesos. I managed to pick up 0.18" with the showers earlier. 

Best rain chances the rest of today are probably with any showers/storms along the front later.

Yes some rain here.  The front out West looks decent.  .18 is a win these days.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Pretty decent shower moving through now. Right on the edge of the precip. Looks like much of Delaware will get a pretty good soaking today.

Wonder whether the incoming line from the West nudges the coastal rainfall shield further East, missing DE and getting mostly Southern asnd Eastern NJ. I hope not. 

Amazing that Central VA is clear at the moment.   

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

@frd

Probably as good as it gets right now. Too bad the days don't get shorter from this point forward lol. I'll take another picture in a month, and the difference will be shocking. It will only get worse from there lol. I only try to keep a small area of decent grass now(what you see here) so reseeding it every Fall isn't a big deal.

 

Looks nice,  as does the fire pit area. 

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Overnight guidance has trended towards bringing some rain further north for Tuesday night. Still looks like the heavier rain will be southward in our region.

Your grass will be going dorment soon.  Its already dry here today after .45 yesterday .  Looks rather dry next 7 days. As the days continue to get longer and we approach June looks like wateribng flowers and garden will be needed.  

.40 here, surprised and happy that the plants got a drink.  

steadier rain congealing over NE Maryland and below I-95 in DE

  Looks like this area may get lucky.  Plants are happy.  

21 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I think that PA batch was supposed to be our rain, and the stuff this afternoon will be south.  Going out now to water my garden LOL

The area of precipitation seems to be trending a bit east Southeast hoping that maybe I'll get at least something but we'll have to order tomorrow.

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Yup. Growing season is here lol. I have a feeling it's going to be a very dry warm season. 

Sprinkle and warm. 67

Thought I saw seasonal precipitation during the summer as being above normal near the Mid-Atlantic coastal area maybe it was the European model. Also thinking about the implications of the El nino.

Looking at the radar this morning it appears that the rain showers are further north in Pennsylvania I thought that the models yesterday were depicting most of the rainfall being forced to the South but generally less overall.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Soil is pretty dry here. Over 10 days with little to no rain since the 1-2 punch deal.

Someone bump the drought thread. 

Yep very dry here as well. The sun is very hot during the afternoon, had to water my garden tonight because I am fearful tomorrow is only .25 of rain, if that.  

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn't say that. sample size is just too small. if we have these problems in 2030 then yeah maybe

I hope your right, time will tell.  I miss snow.  

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

we probably can still do better if the -NAO is centered more towards Greenland but that is kinda sad because some of our biggest storms ever came from retrograding blocks that ended up centered over Canada.  

Seems the methodolgy of what is needed for a big Mid Atlantic snow storm is changing. That is sad as you say.  

Pretty cool spin West of Kitty Hawk, as the pressure drops at near 29.09 near Norfolk. Line of storms forming North South over the Chessy Bay currently.     

34 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I just moved back last summer, and this is the first I’ve seen something like this. 

If it’s been much longer than that, then the la nina must be losing its grip on the mid lat pattern

Yes, things are a changing.  And, this would have been a great winter storm if it happened in the dead of winter.   The rapid demise of the Northern Hemisphere PV happening even faster than the seasonal decline, similiar to what occureed this past winter in the Southern Hemisphere. 

Weekend storm happening near the peak of the + PNA.  

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 globals and their ensembles are advertising 2”+ for the entire region. And spread over 2-3 days so it should soak in well. Not a drought buster, but a good start.

Its been a long time when this vast an area of rainfall was shown in the East, not to mention some 3 inch or higher totals in our area.  

19 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We need a solid 1-2" event every week for a month.

WPC really ramped up the rainfall today in the afternoon update. 

Northern Lights tonight possibly. Space Weather just updated the Geo storm to severe status. Best viewing time 10 PM to 2 AM tonight.   

Line skipped over me and not holding hopes for signifincat rain. This is blah