frd

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

And of course, the WB 12Z EURO control has it….

Brings my seasonal snow total from the Euro Control to roughly 36 inches. I have measured zip on the ground to date.    

Also, even with some PV attacks via heat flux it means very little.  Cold air source is a big concern and the super warm SST signature off New England remains. 

@psuhoffman will be happy. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Jimade a good point yesterday. The reason the stats are so awful regarding Nina’s that start bad like this is that there are two archetypes of Nina and the colder type typically produced some snow by now. The warmer type tends to be a torch straight through. But this year hasn’t been the warmer type so far we just didn’t get snow.  So maybe this is an anomaly that won’t fit the past comps. 
 

Also, we’ve been in a Nino type north pac pattern a lot. Quite often the best analogs have been ninos. And ninos do tend to flip mid winter and end snowier. The data is the data but perhaps there are reasons to have hope this year doesn’t fit the typical patterns. 

Agreed, good point.  Hard to associcate this pattern / La Nina to past analogs, even with some give and take.  Due to the changing background states and warmer climo this winter may end on a non-traditional note by mid to late March.  We should get at least some clarity on this possibilty by the end of Jan.  

This is interesting from Don S.  

Unlike in New York City where no measurable snowfall through December 31st is uncommon and has a strong correlation with January snowfall, in Washington, DC such outcomes are more common. There is also a lower correlation with the January outcomes. 

For the 23 prior cases with no measurable snowfall through December 31st, mean January snowfall was 6.1" and median January snowfall was 3.3". However, 5/23 (22%) January cases saw 10" or more snowfall. January 1987 had the most with 20.8". 3/23 (13%) January cases had no measurable snowfall.

The January cases with 10" or more snowfall were:

1912: 16.9"
1987: 20.8"
2000: 14.5"
2016: 18.8"
2022: 12.3"

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies 

Isn't that climo based for a 46 day snowfall forecast. I have seen double that amount without any snow in my area during the next 46 days. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Overall in 97 years or records here there are only 13 years that got to January without 1” of snow. They all ended up way below avg snow and 12 of the 13 are on the list of 15 least snowy years here!  

Up North the same outcomes, however, have to wonder about recent events and climate change, snapping the other way towards colder and snowier. Certainly seems a below average snowfall winter is in store according to the database.  To achieve above normal snowfall this winter we need a STJ to appear in Jan and Feb, along with sustained cold. ( image below courtesy Don S. ) 

 As mentioned by others colder weather should move into the East after Jan. 7 th.           

I am going to go against LESS SNOW analogs and feel that the Pac improves, - NAO returns and the AO goes very negative by later Jan. We most likely do not get a above snowfall season, but a normal season may still be possble.  This view is in the minority,  but I feel major changes are underway in the HL shortly, and in Asia that will promote improvements in the West.  My concern is how long a better pattern lasts once we get into it.  A normal transition period will need to happen.        

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has the coastal next week…

Unless I am very tired, it appears the GFS may eventually trend to it.  

Also, HM said he feels there is room for things to come together next week.  Thats good enough for me at the present time.  

From HM > " This timeline makes more sense, on a larger scale sense, than the 12/23 threat since that comes with the Siberian express. Not impossible to get favorable trends with this next week. "  >

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Euro/CMC vs. GFS again?

I'm just rooting for that little sliver of gray to shift north a bit for mby flizzard. CMC has it too and its even more pronounced. 

An improvement with this morning's run.

Maybe I can take advantage  of the warmer waters in the C and D canal , ha !  A C&D Canal snow streamer.  I am very desperate! 

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

WAR on the move and the Atlantic ocean SSTs still rather warm.   I could say that HM thinks any PV strengthening is temporary,  and that we will get a reload latter, but after this fiasco I am going to chill out and wait for better days. When psu and the Euro gives me the green light then I will Woof. LOL 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My fear for after is this system pulls north and retrogrades, stalled from progressing by the link up of the WAR and NAO. So we’re left in the exact same conundrum.  Weak waves are likely squashed since were directly under the TPV but anything stronger that phases cuts since there is nothing to prevent it from pumping ridging to the North Pole in front. 

New climo worries no doubt.  The warm pool  is killing us and has been for years. Add to that the lack of a 50/50 and ideal ridge placement out West and we fail. 

On paper the pattern looks great,  but when you look deeper the little things are preventing us from scoring.  The little cause cause huge implications.  

We just finished the first 15 days of December with a record - AO and ideal block North of Alaska, but we fail again.  I imagine in the future I will not to get too excited when the indicies look awesome because it means very little at out lattitude.  I admit I was wrong, I was very confident we would score at least a WSW critieria storm.  

Later this month faces the same issues of now. We might exit December with very little snow, such sadness. 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Sure if you’re hunting for a KU that’s not a good setup. But hard to say it’s a nothing burger for the east at this time….we could score frozen out of this setup even in the 95 corridor. . And mountains / far western areas could be in for more depending on track, etc. 

Yes, he posted a composite of KU storms.  Thats a little unfair, especially when very few KU happen in the East during when you have a Nina. 

Eric Webb is maintaining this is a nothing burger for the East.  

From Eric: < This just flat out isn't a good setup for a big coastal snowstorm in the NE US & hasn't looked like one for several days, despite all the snow output from the GFS & GEFS. Sure, you could get some snow out of it on the backend because of how strong/deep the arctic air mass is, but this isn't a good look for a big storm for the 95 corridor.

-NAO & big OH Valley trough is there, but no 50-50 low anywhere in sight and the ridge in the western US has been too far west for at least the 4 days of model runs (even on the GEFS) >> Interior & Great Lakes very very heavily favored. I highly doubt that changes enough to matter at all here. > .

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Serious question there are some out there on the internet spiking the ball about how this storm isn't happening on the east coast...they could be right but is it wise to be so confident on a Saturday for a Thursday/Friday storm? I don't know seems risky and arrogant to me but hey...I predicted 70 degrees next week 

Like Eric, he could still be wrong. But, that means the WPC is wrong and the Euro. So, make your own assumptions. I would love the GFS be correct.  

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The way the coastal evolves on the 6z GEFS is literally as good as it gets in this set up.

Would be a holiday gift if the GFS doesn't fold to the Euro like usually does. 

Hearing that the ICON is trending better in Alaska presently.  

From Tomer Burg  @burgwx

Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs

Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below 

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block. 

Bluewave had mentioned this as a possible reason for recent inland runners and coastal huggers.  

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either. 

Time to watch Christmas movies.

You're cautious approach to forecasting winter events certainly seems the way to go recently , especially the last few years.

Things certainly do seem different nowadays. I certainly would have bet money on the fact that we had a huge block North of Alaska and a negative Arctic oscillation under four which would almost guarantee a significant snow event here.

 I read a  comment by a met who stated the particular orientation of this block, north south,  potentially increases the likelihood that it connects to a Southeast ridge. I actually mentioned this earlier today.  We have that North Atlantic warm pool east of Maine. Maybe that is a factor as well. 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV never makes it eastward on the GEM....the whole thing happens pretty early in the run....like look at 84h at H5 on GEM vs GFS....GFS already diving the PV lobe ESE with some ridging on the west coast while GEM has no ridging there and the PV is just going to park in W Canada with nothing to pin it under the NAO block.

 

FWIW, the NAM at 84h looks like the GFS and not the GEM.

Appears that the GEFS is moving to support the Op.  Looking good so far. 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Weenie rule #301 - deform always crushes N&W of the city.  GFS shows this below so it's clearly the correct solution.

I am not happy in Northern Delaware, too much sleet, but I will gladly take it.  

5 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

To me it looks like a timing issue with the initial wave getting way too far out in front of the northern stream low diving out of Canada.   Now those pieces don't go boom until Christmas when everything as already progressed past us.  

The good news is that the pattern says blocking.  And I am pretty sure that blocking means that progression will get slowed and the energy will get pushed further south as the models come into focus.  Fingers crosses LOL

Model scoring and verification has decreased since early December.  So uncertainty in this pattern is higher than normal.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS. 

Do you feel the GFS suppresses coastal low pressure incorrectly as a bias? 

Earlier in the month it had this storm further out in the Atlantic only to correct West.  

Also I read that the warm pool in the NW Atlantic may be playing a role by enticing the block to connect to this area by the way of a ridge and hence cause the coastal to be more of a inland runner or coastal hugger.   

This warm pool has been a persistent feature and was even focused on during the summer as part of a study on marine heat waves where certain ocean SST anomalies are significantly above normal.  

So we have anomalous - AO but also anomalously warm sea surface temps in the NW Atlantic. I imagine possibly competing forces for our area.  

Maybe this feature becomes less of a concern next month.  

Couple interesting - AO records broken for the first half of December.  

Posted this evening from Don Sutherland:

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.216 today. December 1-15 has experienced the strongest AO block on record for the first half of December. The AO averaged a preliminary -2.908 (old record: -2.138, 1985) with 8 days at or below -3.000 (old record: 6 days, 1966).

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In the wake of the storm, 50 mph gusts and near 0 windchills.

Drifting snow with arctic cold AFTER the storm would bring back memories of old time winters.  

 I like