frd

The threat window 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Inverted trough look.

Some posters up North are fearful of surpression despite the modeling and recent history of far NW tracks.    

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Plenty of spread among the EPS members on low location for the 11-12th period. Not the strongest signal I have ever seen for a favorable MA coastal low track. Best signal for frozen in this window is to our north, again. Still time.

I really hope we can break the 3-year consistency of inland coastal lows, or coastal huggers. Going to take a few more days to get clarity on this I imagine. 

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

robust signal for a coastal low with lots of cold air around 

Maybe for once the Eastern areas  might be favored. Thanks for all your updates.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That might not even be meteorologically possible.

Day After Tomorrow 

Just now, CAPE said:

Been pretty busy with work today so catching up a bit. The advertised look on the EPS into mid month is impressive. I like how it maintains a -NAO.

WOOF ! MECS 

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

6z Gfs hits us with wave 1 day 11 then us setup to hit us again when it ends. Yea it’s in unicorn land. No way it has the details and wave timing right. But it shows how this type of pattern could play out. This time such a result is supported by the longwave pattern drivers and not just some BS artifact of chaos at long leads. 

Forecasts of Mountain torque and angular momentum off the charts per HM. 

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on seemingly random atmospheric wave interactions and timing. Total chaos.

Not a very fruitful hobby when the one desired outcome has such a low probability of occurring in this area lol.

It is sad.

A hobby directly tied to AGW, and this hobby's ROI has been declining in recent years if you are a snow lover. Hopefully, we score something before the never ending humidty and heat move in.     

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is the Pacific pattern change

Going to get a seizure 

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I believe this is the actual 'Chuck' window. Beautiful look at h5 and cold.

I wonder how the temperatures compare to the March  2018 blocking episode. HM had commented that the progression of the blocking this March compared to 2018 is very similar the only difference is the air temperatures in the source regions of North America are not as cold,however,  maybe that has changed in the last couple days. 

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shouldn't be any cutters with this look. Our primary fail mode risk would shift to that thing Ralph fears. There is still an indication of a coastal low around the 11th, but just offshore this run.

What is the Ralph mode is that mean suppression?

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We're all gonna do it again. You know it. 

This is the one!

I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the football from Lucy

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive.  So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS.  

ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp 

If we wind up with something similar to what happened in the southern hemisphere winter  the PV should not be able to recover quickly. 

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am skeptical but hopeful….this is different as others have stated as well….we are finally getting some WPO and MJO help, the PNA is heading toward neutral, and I guess the stratwarm effects.  Inside 2 weeks now….

Interesting high amplitude MJO phase 7 and 8.  Haven't seen that in a long time. 

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS….good news is we don’t have to throw in the towel until next winter just yet….hopefully a discreet threat will appear by the end of next weekend

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show  climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The SE ridge has corrected to be stronger than progged in the medium range ALL winter. There’s no reason to expect that to change. And it’s happening again for Friday. 

Persistence in this case has been ongoing for the last several years. The majority of storms have been either coastal huggers,  inland runners or simply cutters. 

The Atlantic is not our friend , neither is the Pac.  Warm SSTs and feedback has reinforced the SE ridge. It will take an anomalous well timed event to achieve snowfall in our region. HM had mentioned that the progression of this block is similiar to 2018, however, in 2018 the airmass in the North America's source region was colder. I imagine we get one last chance mid month.     

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS is not worth posting any snow maps.bad shift last 4 runs for next weekend.  Hopefully, we will reverse course with this weekend’s model runs.

That is significant coming from you. Persistence rules, including the semi permanent WAR/SE ridge.   One chance mid-month, but even that may not happen. 

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Massive - Nao but still cuts. 

I give up this winter.

WAR overpowers the the block. Shorter wavelengths don't help either, but they should.  When persistence has featured warmth why think it's going to change. You still need help from the Pac, one positive feature nowadays is not enough for snow. 

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The great pattern shifts have been 10 to 14 days away all winter….latest GFS extended teleconnections along with SPV and MJO give us the Hail Mary.  We will see but the ensembles are just getting into the early part of this period  so every 6 hour run does not mean much at this point. Snow means are bad the next 2 weeks.

HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply. 

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That ain't right man...Guess there's nothing wrong with THEIR base state! (And also...the western "base state" is better than ours I guess? Eh I don't know)

Is it the base state or the bass ? ? ? 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern tried it just couldn’t quite overcome the warmer base state. We don’t have enough data yet. But if we get a modoki Nino and it continues to be hard to get cold enough we might have our answer. 
 

Modoki Nino may not deliver if the Pac basin SST profile doesn't set up correctly.  I imagine it all depends on the anomalies and location. The grass here is still green and some bulbs have already sprouted through the soil. The 70 degrees next week will really start the thoughts of Spring.    

20 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Base state. The new trendy term.

What was the base state late 80’s early 90’s.

Isnt the drum busted by now?

No, the drum is not busted, the tom tom drums are beating to a continuation of the warmer results in the East.    

Not sure why you want to bring up the 80's and 90's. It is clearly evident the West Pac has changed and the MJO hyper warm phase is in place,  not to mention other factors including the NW Atlantic warm pool.    

34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Every time the pattern has looked good on the ensembles it’s pretty much turned to crap. So why is it everyone just buys a bad looking pattern?

Simple, the base state. Unstoppable the last three years and getting stronger. Any questions please direct to psu. 

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yes it’s not even Feb yet, and I’m already punting to next winter. 

Might as well get the shutout year out of the way, because I’m 90% certain we won’t have back-to-back shutout seasons. Let’s just hope we don’t get an east-based +3 nino… otherwise all bets are off 

Pretty clear its over and has been since even before the late December arctic invasion.  I have given into the psu snow rational posts and it has enlightened me, as I feel relaxed seeing this winter just go away.  Only issue is that we may see a lot more of these winters in the years ahead.   

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

I posted a chart today that showed 70% chance of nino by fall

Excellent !