frd

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We truly have a model war between EURO and GFS.

GFS persistence does not equal superiority. 

We shall see.  

Interesting 

Looks wintery

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

18z GEFS looks good 

You think us in the low lands can still score a significant snowfall or will this be mostly higher terrain event. 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For around the 20th- still a generally favorable h5 look for a MA winter storm, but with the vortex in that position in SE Canada the heavier precip is mostly suppressed south/offshore on both the 0z GEFS and EPS. Cold wouldn't be an issue.

This would be some light snow over the region verbatim.

Could trend North.  What our thoughts on that ?  Also connected NAO and WAR gone .

Also looks like cross polar flow.  Hope not cold and dry.   Baroclinic zone might help us possibly. Damn I just want snow.  

Appears regardless of meeting the criteria for an official SSWE ( u wind reversal ) just the fact that the PV continues under pressure and will likely remain weak is the main takeaway according to Tomer and Dr Lee.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

For the 16-17th- Looking at the individual members on the 0z EPS, about 15(30%) have the boundary to our west, which is a bit more than the 12z run. Of those members those that have the wave frozen is focused to our west. The rest of the members that have a storm indicate frozen over our area or just south. Overall still a modest signal, but for those looking at the snow mean for that window, explains why it's still focused NW.

The 0z GEFS has only 2-3 members implying the boundary is still to our west, and there is a somewhat stronger signal overall for frozen through our area. Compared to previous runs, seeing less of an indication for OV frozen for that period.

You think the lowlands have a chance with this one ?

Seems we are battling another cutter or suppression.   A fine balancing act.  

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Just lock it in already 

That storm, and the date Jan 17th,  fits perfectly with Tomer's - NAO post. 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i love simple overrunning events. This one screams supression though lol

HM

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east?  The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves.  I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day.

Colder air will move in. As many have stated here, the period of interest is from the 15 th to the 20 th, or possibly to near the 23 rd.    

Calm down Ryan 

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Update on my winter outlook for our subforum.

TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15.

My area is 15 to 30 inches.  Hopefully a few moderate events and one MECS gets me to 30 inches.  Thanks for the update.     

Nice visual - here comes the cold,  the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

I read Judah's post and was like what ?? 

Most reliable professional mets are calling for a weak PV. 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z GFS took a step closer for the 13th. Now that’s a storm I’d chase to Ohio verbatim if I didn’t have other plans. What a mauling

Billions of isobars.  Like a dark hole.  

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this will work. HL blocking is insane

For illustrative purposes only,  but that insane HL blocking regime going across Northern Canada would most likely result ( if correctly modeled) a snow pattern that would run West to East at a fairly lower lattitude. 

Something like this possibly.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

veryone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

Bluewave had mentioned in the past that the SER/WAR is effecting colder airmasses moving East and tends to cause issues with certain types of NAO blocks where the NAO hooks up with the SER.  So many ways to lose and too few to win off of these days.  

I really need to move to Seattle for my full of snow and arctic cold.

59 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter.

When the PNA was neutral the entire North America continent was warm, not we have cold building in Canada but a - PNA.

Just now, anotherman said:

Thanks, Joe.

Where was the Holiday period snow storms.  WeatherBell seasonal not doing well.  

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

What do you think about Feb ?  Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver.

Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino. 

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is not breaking news. Have you been paying attention?

Agreed, we knew it was going to happen, but in the last 24 to 72 hours the arctic cold trended even further West.  

Seems as if wave breaking and the Greenland block pushed the arctic air further WSW in Canada. I imagine if things were different upstream,  and if the PAC profile was more favorable the colder airmass would have come further East,  versus further West.   

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Probably looking at MLK day and beyond for legit opportunities. Ensemble guidance has been very consistent with the western/central US trough and storm track to our west through next weekend. The storm around MLK day could offer some frozen potential, esp if there is a trailing wave scenario. That is the timeframe where colder air will be pressing eastward.

Sadly, I admit I am bummed to see winter hit out West first with such a fury. The - AO and the - NAO have only muted the warmth here. 

I am interested to see whether Tomer's stats about the peak of a - NAO and its relationship afterward on average to Mid Atlantic  snowstorms. He stated 3 to 5 days after the - NAO peak is when to watch for a possible threat.  That would be near the 18 th to the 22nd.   

Meanwhile he also posted this about the failed early Jan SSWE.    

Jim chimes in with how active it is going to be in the States over the next 10 to 15 days. Next Weds looks like a high wind threat here  followed by a second cutter, and then a third system near hour 240 on the high resolution ECM. which I am not sure how that will play out.