frd

Cool info 

Nothing new really, this has been gone over recenlty, that we need to wait for the Greenland block to retrograde and relax.  However, worth mentioning the probability is there for a rather significant event in the Mid Atlantic later in Feb.   

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that's not gonna help for PD. Suppression depression.

The jet is in Mexico. Ugh 

Latest GFS output for hour 384. Keep in mind though the latest GFS was an outlier regarding the events leading up to this split. Regardless, the vortex is taking a beating.    

Just updated

This was just updated a few minutes ago, and wow ! 

Deeper, longer, we are setting up for an extended period of winter weather. 

More consolidation for a -3 SD AO then yesterday. 

Some member - 6 SD.  

39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

SOI continues to tank. Today’s -36 is the largest single day contribution yet.

Isn't there some type of formula as to peak negative SOI and it's effect in the East via Pac interaction and moisture delivery ?

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is being objective, laying out the statistical probabilities based on similar patterns. There are never any guarantees, regardless of how historically favorable the pattern might look.

It's good to be rational and objective. 

Wonder why Tomer is not as excited as some? 

Granted, he seems to say moderate snow events likely in the upcoming pattern after mid month, but he states he does not see a historic snowfall pattern based on the current modeling. 

I was not aware how dramatic the North America snow cover has declined. Pretty remarkable.    

Interesting post by @bluewave below. 

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Impressive for 30 days 

Pattern has legs deep into March 

Continued improvement today with a dropping - AO.  

Good post 

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Jan 13-24 10mb warming does have correlation to -NAO conditions ~Feb 3-20

When do you think the - NAO  starts to relax, because that will be important as it is related to storm potential during the relaxation period.   

Interesting 

Wonder if we tap into some of this arctic air later in Feb.  Brrr. 

The - AO looks even better today.    

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We going get PD III

 

 

Rather consistent signal there, been there for several days.  

Wonder how far South suppression is ? 

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A legit NA blocking pattern is being depicted on all 3 ens means. Canadian has led the way on a stout, west-based -NAO and the latest GEFS and EPS runs are now more bullish on the idea.

The West based block increases the odds for a more significant snowfall event for our area I believe.

I was just commenting yesterday about the CMC and how it might over do blocking,  but as you mentioned,  other models have trended to it . Awesome looks there !!

No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks.  The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March.