WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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It does have bust potential, but I would go off our climo and past experience. Low level cold holds on longer than expected, but mid-level warmth comes in faster than expected. That’s a recipe for a lot of sleet I think. I’m thinking that snow may be restricted to your area and the mountains, with the rest of us just going sleet to rain. Hope I’m wrong and see a few fatties, but I’m leaning against it right now.
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I’ll eat my phone if I get 6”
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Thanks. Makes sense. Seems like we’re converging on consensus with the euro on the cold side and GFS on the warm.
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How does it compare to 12z?
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If I had to handicap it for MBY, I’d go with: seeing some snow or sleet: 90% measurable snow/sleet (>=0.1”): 70% 1” or more: 40% 2” or more: 10%
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Lucky for you it already is?
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Per other websites, euro soundings support 4-6hrs of snow near BWI.
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Likely for you, yes. Borderline for the M-D line zones probably.
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Ha that Canadian map is basically a weenies dream. Textbook.
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FV3 gets a stronger press from the cold high which looks to counter the slower ULL pass.
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Nice work, Matt (and Jason)!
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GFS pretty close to 6z. Maybe a touch warmer. Better for the far N+W crew because precip comes in faster resulting in more snow to start.
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DCA has precisely 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of recording 1”. BWI’s odds are probably a bit higher.
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You’ll take you slush dusting and LIKE IT.
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No. It’s just a downsampled version of the regular NAM. The 3km NAM is the only one to ever look at.
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CWG went 150-175% of normal in 09-10. 24” for DCA and 30” for BWI.
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CWG winter forecast is out. Slightly warmer than normal DJF, rocking Feb and maybe March. 16-24” for DC.
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If the euro is locked in with that solution, we will likely see some accumulation. Congrats @mappy.
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Just looked at the 0z euro. Holy cow it’s a stone cold assassin. Looks substantially colder than the GFS and makes the flip back to snow/mix Friday morning with the ULL pass.
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Tonight’s weeklies look much better per analysis on other sites.
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FV3 is very slightly colder than the op GFS at the surface but several degrees warmer at 850. I’d much prefer the op solution.
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I think it’s just the TT algorithm for the FV3. Don’t know why it’s so bad.
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#blessed
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Happy hour is a bit faster with the ULL and colder in the low-levels. Better chance for frozen.
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Euro/EPS has been sucking wind with the Pac for several weeks now. GFS/GEFS had a better handle for sure on that side of things.
