WxUSAF
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Euro phases the northern and southern stream lows and then pulls a high pressure in from Canada. GFS keeps the streams separate and the northern stream moves through the lakes and just obliterates the airmass into subtropical garbage.
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EPS has a signal for coastal storms again around the 11/12th and then again around the 14th.
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Airmass late next week ahead of that storm is not quite as garbage as the GFS. GFS shows an absolutely horrific airmass. Euro is marginal, but clearly better. Also has the 850mb low track south of us which is ideal to lock in the cold air. Behind that storm at the end of the run, there's lots of cold air around.
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EPS snow mean lit up it looks like if you’re into that stuff
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Lol it’s nearly 50F IMBY
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Yes it does
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Yup, it has heartbreak written all over it. You, @losetoa6, @HighStakes, and @mappy manage 1-3” of slop while the rest of us enjoy 35F rain. 40F for @CAPE and DCA.
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GGEM tracks the Jan 8 storm south of us and snows on VA. MD fringed
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Lol look at these closed 500mb shortwaves tracking south of us on the GFS and just a rotten airmass. Please Jesus let that continue once we get even some marginal airmass.
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I think we get teased in the Jan 7-15 time period. Maybe something does work out then. It wouldn’t shock me. The difference between “great” winters or periods of winters and “fine” are usually whether we luck our way into some marginal events. By many numeric indices (AO, etc) we’re going to underperform this December. For the folks north of the Fall Line, it’s going to be a “fine” December. But could have been better. We’ll see what January offers.
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We score a solid storm in late Jan. Then pattern relaxes for two weeks. Great pattern returns around V-day, but we get fringed while NYC on north gets 2’. 80F by March 5.
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Ggem suggests some follow up energy rotating through next Tuesday. Para GFS hints at it also. Maybe something to watch also.
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The overnight D10 EPS pretty clearly answers the “just high heights” or a true ridge in the NAO domain. It’s the later. And as Webb showed, the EPS is also lessening the torch temps underneath that block. Something to watch going forward. Still makes things needle threaders, but maybe a bit more give available for the Jan 7-15 timeframe?
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With that big block and possible 50/50 lows, I think we’re going to have some close calls Jan 7-15. At least to the point we probably get teased a few times. But going to be needle threaders if anything. After the 15th, I think we get busy. If the advertised pattern comes to fruition, I think odds are definitely higher than normal for KU type events. Especially considering it’s a moderate Nina.
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Just as an example, but 18z GFS is the sort of evolution through the first 2 weeks of January that we want to see. -NAO/-AO rocks starting in a few days, and then PNA/EPO ridging starts to build around D11. Then by the end of the run, you’ve got 850 temps below normal for much of the CONUS. Actually the pattern is barking for a big dog at 384...
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The H5 looks on all guidance are excellent by mid January. But 850 and 2m temps are still mild at that point. Going to take a bit of time to get some cold air moving south, but that much improved Pac will do that eventually.
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GEFS has a cutter signal around the 11/12th. But it’s super warm ahead of it. We need that west coast ridging to pop and then wait a few days at least to start flushing the puke out of here before we get some legit threats IMO. Maybe there’s a needle to be threaded before that, but just no cold air to speak of. If the ensembles are correct, I think we’re in business after the 15th.
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Anyone in NE MD get any snow this morning? Radar looked briefly impressive.
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DT’s back on board
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Agree, if we’re going to get things lined up in our favor, the last 10 days of January and first 10 days of February is an ideal time for it.
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Yeah that’s a very nice look.
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More the opposite. Often a series of cutters “carves” the baroclinic zone eastward progressively. That’s why follow up waves work for us sometimes. I’ll hold you to that
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If you assume the GEFS is a similar evolution, and it looks to be, then you can see the end of the 18z GEFS has 850mb cold anomalies filling back in over the CONUS. 2m temps lag a bit, but generally the same idea. Once you cut off the PAC firehose and get some meridional flow from Canada, you’ll get BN temps eventually with that H5.
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I’m 0.1” short of last winter Yeah, I think BWI was like 1.5” last winter and DCA was under 1”?
