WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Good morning weenies! Based on my anxious listening to sounds on my skylight and roof, started as rain/sleet mix around 130am and transitioned to snow around 330am. 1.6" so far, just measured on the snowboard. Coming down moderately with small-medium sized flakes. Paved surfaces caving now. eta...31F.
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Wow, that’s like 10F colder than I expected for you at this point. Congrats on the colder rain!
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Extrapolate liberally
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47/36
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Nam will probably go se cause everyone expects it to go nw lol I don’t think it’s worth much over analyzing model output when you’re within 10 hours of game time, but you can get weird jumps on the convection resolving models as they respond to big thunderstorm clusters.
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I think the Hrrr and SREFs are both pretty useless. I’ve seen brief times where it seems the Hrrr is providing added value, but it just bounces around too much.
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Hey @CntrTim85, if you really want a timeout, you can just say so
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That WV image shows the trough is perfectly neutral tilt right over the MS Valley. Look at how the boundary between the dry and moist air (dark and bright) is oriented N/S along the AL/MS border.
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50/39
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Interesting WPC experimental product
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HoCo schools closed Kids dancing Wife facepalming
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Good catch
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53/43 now IMBY. Only 21F to go!!
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Dew points starting to tank.
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It can create confluence, so in a general sense, yes it can. We'll see if it does this time.
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The 500mb and surface track didn't really change on the GFS. Maybe a slight north wobble at certain panels? But the cold/dry air push on the northern edge is stronger. That tightens the precip gradient, hence the reduction north of DC and same (or better) south of DC.
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If you want to sweat the cold FROPA, the SPC mesoanalysis is good to follow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Can choose either "Surface" or "Winter Weather" and see where the isotherms are packed to tell where the front is located. Based on the wind shift, it's getting close to the metros in MD/DC and a bit farther north in VA.
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60/56 at DCA with 1005.5mb SLP at 2pm. Feels like snow.
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DCA streak of days above 22F looks to be in jeopardy!
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Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure.
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Dear God man, what’s Pittsburgh’s barometric pressure!?!?!!!!????
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Let’s just say I’m going to be asleep and not reading the meltdowns in the obs thread when it’s 53F at DCA at midnight
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Euro laughs at the NAMs and ICON. DC purple’d
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Haven’t looked myself that it allegedly inched north relative to its 0z but it ain’t no GFS
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Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine)
